ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

Is there any chance that this doesn't go north towards Jacksonville? Just asking and curious.

Yes.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 23:19Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 21
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 22:59:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°56'N 74°18'W (19.9333N 74.3W)
B. Center Fix Location: 100 statute miles (160 km) to the E (93°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,655m (8,711ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 103kts (~ 118.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the E (80°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 165° at 102kts (From the SSE at ~ 117.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the ENE/E (79°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 949mb (28.03 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 102kts (~ 117.4mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the ENE/E (79°) from the flight level center at 22:52:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 175° at 7kts (From the S at 8mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the E (82°) from the flight level center

[jlauderdal]

Can someone help a novice. I have a new generator. What kind of gas and oil do I get. The gas is probably unleaded but what about the oil?

read the manual but SAE 30 will do it.

[drewschmaltz]

Can someone help a novice. I have a new generator. What kind of gas and oil do I get. The gas is probably unleaded but what about the oil?

That's my line of work. All those small engines use 10W 30 but if it's going to be run directly in the sun and in real hot temps you might consider a thicker oil like 20W 50. Oil for water cooled engines isn't as good for air cooled engines as oils with an additive like Zinc.

Gas looses octane over time. I would go with a higher octane, maybe mid grade. But, unless you want to spend $100 every time you want the generator to start USE ETHANOL FREE FUEL. Stabilizers don't work as good as advertised, but you REALLY want good gas... Edit: I should note that it doesn't matter if you're running fresh fuel, you want ethanol free and higher octane for storage more than anything.

We sold several of these today at work (Orlando area) if you're looking for a great generator:

http://powerequipment.honda.com/generat ... s/eu3000is

They are so quiet it's hard to know it's on. In fact this is a good time to remind everyone NOT TO RUN YOUR GENERATOR INSIDE OR IN THE GARAGE. Seems obvious, but people actually kill themselves that way.

[sancholopez]

Weather Channel just said of all the Northeast Hemisphere hurricanes, Matthew has broken the record for the most amount of time as a cat 3/4/5. Really? Hard to believe. If so, maybe padding that record...

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Can someone help a novice. I have a new generator. What kind of gas and oil do I get. The gas is probably unleaded but what about the oil?

I would recommend to refer to your owner's manual.

[TheAustinMan]

Weather Channel just said of all the Northeast Hemisphere hurricanes, Matthew has broken the record for the most amount of time as a cat 3/4/5. Really? Hard to believe. If so, maybe padding that record...

I believe that is true for October. Don't think this holds the record for that overall.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/783438774063632385



 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/783420439649394688

[TimeZone]

Wow you gotta be on point not to includ dade in hurricane watch wouldn't be prudent Incase wind field expands or jog. Broward 20 min from Miami.

You gotta draw the line somewhere. At this time it doesn't seem as likely that Miami-Dade county will experience hurricane conditions. That can change, however, so remain vigilant.

Only time will tell.

[sancholopez]

Weather Channel just said of all the Northeast Hemisphere hurricanes, Matthew has broken the record for the most amount of time as a cat 3/4/5. Really? Hard to believe. If so, maybe padding that record...

I believe that is true for October. Don't think this holds the record for that overall.

they even included the Pacific too. Maybe I missed the part he said October... Seemed odd, it has only been a Cat 3 or above since Friday right?

[stormreader]

I get what everyone's saying about models and pens and paper.

I do think there's an art being lost...I think modeling is great and it's made for incredibly better forecasts, but it can be frustrating when someone just throws up a chart and doesn't tell me why a feature is doing what it is doing. Our pro-mets here are really good at explaining the why. This is why I only participate here

I also don't think they would have handled Hazel well at all had they existed in 1954. Then like now, timing of a trough is what took it inland rather than skirt the coast. That most models broadly had Matthew making a sharp north turn about where it eventually did way back when it was east of the Antilles sells them for me.

just my thoughts.

Of course you are right about the overall benefit of models. Forecast error has been greatly reduced. But with this particular storm, especially in terms of the forecast track N of the Caribbean, I don't think our more advanced models have performed that well. I don't know if it was because the forecast was really that difficult??? Or if our best models have an "imbalance" perhaps over emphasis on some element of the physics, but the less sophisticated models seem to have done better in handling the ridging/troughing dynamics. That's why I think that mets 50 years ago would have created a forecast in this case closer to that of the NAM and been more accurate than the stronger models which are now relied upon by the NHC. Speaking of this storm in particular.

[Aric Dunn]

Maybr Aric can answer my question.

what question ?

[TheAustinMan]

Weather Channel just said of all the Northeast Hemisphere hurricanes, Matthew has broken the record for the most amount of time as a cat 3/4/5. Really? Hard to believe. If so, maybe padding that record...

I believe that is true for October. Don't think this holds the record for that overall.

they even included the Pacific too. Maybe I missed the part he said October... Seemed odd, it has only been a Cat 3 or above since Friday right?

Yeah, the major hurricane came around midday on Friday, and we've had a major hurricane ever since. Still incredibly long though, and it's certainly racking up the ACE points for the year. Probably has exerted a tremendous amount of energy to move all that moisture over the past few days.

[abajan]

Weather Channel just said of all the Northeast Hemisphere hurricanes, Matthew has broken the record for the most amount of time as a cat 3/4/5. Really? Hard to believe. If so, maybe padding that record...

Well, for starters, since a hemisphere is defined as half of a sphere, "Northeast Hemisphere" might need to be restated.

[Dean4Storms]

Eye now making landfall over Eastern Cuba.

Radar....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if the center of the storm doesn't actually make landfall, the potential damage up and down the entire Florida Coadt will be horrific(if it's just barely off shore. Tons of wind damage

[stormreader]

Weather Channel just said of all the Northeast Hemisphere hurricanes, Matthew has broken the record for the most amount of time as a cat 3/4/5. Really? Hard to believe. If so, maybe padding that record...

Well, for starters, since a hemisphere is defined as half of a sphere, "Northeast Hemisphere" might need to be restated.

LOL.... You keep everyone honest!

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I get what everyone's saying about models and pens and paper.

I do think there's an art being lost...I think modeling is great and it's made for incredibly better forecasts, but it can be frustrating when someone just throws up a chart and doesn't tell me why a feature is doing what it is doing. Our pro-mets here are really good at explaining the why. This is why I only participate here

I also don't think they would have handled Hazel well at all had they existed in 1954. Then like now, timing of a trough is what took it inland rather than skirt the coast. That most models broadly had Matthew making a sharp north turn about where it eventually did way back when it was east of the Antilles sells them for me.

just my thoughts.

Of course you are right about the overall benefit of models. Forecast error has been greatly reduced. But with this particular storm, especially in terms of the forecast track N of the Caribbean, I don't think our more advanced models have performed that well. I don't know if it was because the forecast was really that difficult??? Or if our best models have an "imbalance" perhaps over emphasis on some element of the physics, but the less sophisticated models seem to have done better in handling the ridging/troughing dynamics. That's why I think that mets 50 years ago would have created a forecast in this case closer to that of the NAM and been more accurate than the stronger models which are now relied upon by the NHC. Speaking of this storm in particular.

I'm confused. You are saying that the advanced models have not performed well, "especially in terms of the forecast track N of the Caribbean", as if a review of how the models have performed can be done. Unless you have a crystal ball and can see the future, you can't tell how a model has performed in forecasting until the storm has already passed the area the model is forecasting. Model forecasts can and will always change based on what the storm actually physically does, but you can't compare one model run to the next and say that the last one was wrong or failed when the storm has not made it to that location yet.

[johngaltfla]

When's the last time a storm this organized entered the gulf stream? And what was the result? ... Does the NHC even believe their own intensity forecasts?

Read up on the Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938. It's happened before, not saying this one will, but there is a historical precedent.

[abajan]

Eye now making landfall over Eastern Cuba.

Radar....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

Looks like Punta de Maisí is about to get slammed with some seriously strong winds. Hope they make it through this without too much damage.

[Panfan1995]

I cannot get over these models. I dont understand what in the atmosphere is making this curse so nicely and huge the EC then do a loop to FL. Yes I see that the models have been west but they were west to a SC/NC landfall and all of a sudden out od nowhere we have a loop and a crazy forcast. So tomorrow I suppose matthew will just dissapate!