ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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lando
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5941 Postby lando » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:27 am

tolakram wrote:12Z GFS running

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/EgLxoJQ.png[/img]


already wrong? no nicole>?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5942 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:29 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5943 Postby SapphireSea » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:29 am

lando wrote:
tolakram wrote:12Z GFS running

[img]http://i.imgur.com/EgLxoJQ.pn


already wrong? no nicole>?


Nicole is that tiny closed isobar way to the NE. Looks like a great initialization.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5944 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:30 am

lando wrote:
tolakram wrote:12Z GFS running

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/EgLxoJQ.png[/img]


already wrong? no nicole>?


Nicole isn't strong enough to register at 500mb. I'm using this map so we can see the ridges.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5945 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:33 am

Looks a little SE at 24 hours. Not sure what this means, if anything, in the long term.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5946 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:34 am

FWIW, GFS really didn't start showing the WNW turn until hour 48 (would be 42 on 12Z run).
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5947 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:36 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5948 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:37 am

4 run trend

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5949 Postby chris_fit » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:37 am

Little S and Slower @ 36hrs.... also slightly more ridging
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5950 Postby lando » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:39 am

NW at 36
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5951 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:39 am

Looks slower than 06z
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5952 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:40 am

Looks slower but tracks so far appears identical to 6z. Also a bit weaker.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5953 Postby xironman » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:40 am

chris_fit wrote:Little S and Slower @ 36hrs.... also slightly more ridging


Kind of does in the "less ridging" meme.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5954 Postby chaser1 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:40 am

I'm not yet seeing hardly any significant deviation in the model forecast up to this point.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5955 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:41 am

ridging is little stronger
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5956 Postby bqknight » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:42 am

The runs are almost identical up to 48 hours. Ridging looks to be SLIGHTLY stronger.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5957 Postby ronyan » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:42 am

Strengthening at hr 48 and slightly south of 6z.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5958 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:42 am

Slight south east shift from 06z at 48hrs
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5959 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:44 am

4 run trend

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5960 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:46 am

Ridge still stronger...
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