ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wzrgirl1]

Thank you all for your responses. Getting nervous here.

[stormreader]

I get what everyone's saying about models and pens and paper.

I do think there's an art being lost...I think modeling is great and it's made for incredibly better forecasts, but it can be frustrating when someone just throws up a chart and doesn't tell me why a feature is doing what it is doing. Our pro-mets here are really good at explaining the why. This is why I only participate here

I also don't think they would have handled Hazel well at all had they existed in 1954. Then like now, timing of a trough is what took it inland rather than skirt the coast. That most models broadly had Matthew making a sharp north turn about where it eventually did way back when it was east of the Antilles sells them for me.

just my thoughts.

Of course you are right about the overall benefit of models. Forecast error has been greatly reduced. But with this particular storm, especially in terms of the forecast track N of the Caribbean, I don't think our more advanced models have performed that well. I don't know if it was because the forecast was really that difficult??? Or if our best models have an "imbalance" perhaps over emphasis on some element of the physics, but the less sophisticated models seem to have done better in handling the ridging/troughing dynamics. That's why I think that mets 50 years ago would have created a forecast in this case closer to that of the NAM and been more accurate than the stronger models which are now relied upon by the NHC. Speaking of this storm in particular.

I'm confused. You are saying that the advanced models have not performed well, "especially in terms of the forecast track N of the Caribbean", as if a review of how the models have performed can be done. Unless you have a crystal ball and can see the future, you can't tell how a model has performed in forecasting until the storm has already passed the area the model is forecasting. Model forecasts can and will always change based on what the storm actually physically does, but you can't compare one model run to the next and say that the last one was wrong or failed when the storm has not made it to that location yet.

Ok. I agree. We'll wait till landfall or near landfall in Fl before we pass judgement on the earlier runs which suggested a path hundreds of miles out to sea.

[psyclone]

I'm expecting a northward extension of the hurricane watch @ 11...probably into the JAX CWA. Fernandina beach is my best guess. Not sure about southward into Dade...but nevertheless...those wind probs for Dade imply a high risk of TS conditions.

[SeGaBob]

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
745 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee in South
Florida.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Sanibel]

Lower deck clouds here starting to show signs of a nearby cyclone and starting to get entrained into cyclonic flow.

[sma10]

Meanwhile, it's becoming evident on satellite and radar that Matthew has slowed down and begun a left turn. According to Euro, this left turn will be agonizingly slow, as evident by the fact that the storm is already closing in on the tomorrow morning's forecast position.

Yes, the spit of land Matthew is currently traversing is quite small, but with quite a bit of terrain. I really do wonder what he will look like on the other side of Cuba if it takes him most of the night to get there.

[AdamFirst]

Shutters up here in Port Saint Lucie. Found a gas station that wasn't swarmed with people (yet) too. Gassed up and ready to go.

[ozonepete]

ozonepete you think hurr watch could be extand to dade?

I agree with SouthDade who just said:
"You gotta draw the line somewhere. At this time it doesn't seem as likely that Miami-Dade county will experience hurricane conditions. That can change, however, so remain vigilant."

But I want to wait and see the ECMWF and GFS output that comes out between 11PM and 1 AM. If they don't bring Matthew's center any closer to SW FL then I would not extend the watch to there and IMO the threat of strong hurricane conditions to Miami would be greatly reduced.

[terstorm1012]

I cannot get over these models. I dont understand what in the atmosphere is making this curse so nicely and huge the EC then do a loop to FL. Yes I see that the models have been west but they were west to a SC/NC landfall and all of a sudden out od nowhere we have a loop and a crazy forcast. So tomorrow I suppose matthew will just dissapate!

it's the high to the north and east, and then the trough approaching from the west. timing of the trough, and the strength of the ridge, will determine where this goes.

[Evil Jeremy]

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
745 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee in South
Florida.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

I know this is nitpicking.... but why didn't the NHC simply wait until the 8pm advisory to state this?

[tolakram]

I cannot get over these models. I dont understand what in the atmosphere is making this curse so nicely and huge the EC then do a loop to FL. Yes I see that the models have been west but they were west to a SC/NC landfall and all of a sudden out od nowhere we have a loop and a crazy forcast. So tomorrow I suppose matthew will just dissapate!

There's nothing crazy going on, ignore the end of the ECMWF run if it bothers you but looping around after dissipation is not all that rare. BOth models are predicting really poor conditions north of South Carolina which either cause rapid weakening, ET transition, or with the euro I suspect the top gets blown off and the low level swirl drifts around. Hurricanes can end in dramatic fashion sometimes.

What should be focused on is the fact the majority of the models are clustered close to the coast and threaten FL, GA, SC and NC. Be prepared, have a plan, and pay attention to official outlets. Whatever the models say reality will be slightly different, it always is.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like Matthew might be stalling, doing a loop or about to head more northwest. I don't know which one.

GITMO Radar
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/GMO_loop.gif

Close to live sat loop:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=18&lon=-75&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

[SeGaBob]

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
745 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee in South
Florida.

$$


Forecaster Stewart

I know this is nitpicking.... but why didn't the NHC simply wait until the 8pm advisory to state this?

I was thinking the same thing.

[drewschmaltz]

ATTENTION: Let's all take a minute and give credit where credit is due:

This could be the storm of the century. My foot is so swollen that I can't walk. Florida will get hit. Putting my shutters tomorrow morning. Hope everyone is prepared.

Bones' foot has seriously outperformed the models in both intensity and path. This quote is from 8 days ago.

[Panfan1995]

I thought that ridge was suppose to be a blocking ridge and the trough stalled

[gatorcane]

Looks like Matthew might be stalling, doing a loop or about to head more northwest. I don't know which one.

GITMO Radar
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/GMO_loop.gif

Close to live sat loop:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=18&lon=-75&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

The high terrain of Eastern Cuba can do strange things to the movement of these cyclones....curious if Matthew gets hung up there for a little while. Maybe if we are lucky, the core will be severely disrupted

[sancholopez]

Everyone is saying the loop is a bad run with Euro, but not only is the Ukmet showing it, many ensembles are showing it. Its not a fluke. Some really smart computer is seeing something that may make that happen. It really says that the ridge is bad ass right now....

[Michele B]

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
745 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee in South
Florida.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

I know this is nitpicking.... but why didn't the NHC simply wait until the 8pm advisory to state this?

as close as it is to 8:00, I think they did.

[Sanibel]

GFDL Model serious west shift landfall 114KT Palm Beach...

[MetroMike]

Does anyone think that hurricane warnings can be issued if the official NHC track keeps this offshore? May be too late by the time we know how far west this will go.