ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#61 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 15, 2016 12:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z Best Track latitude is lower than first update.

Location: 9.2°N 23.7°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM


The fact that this is moving WSW in the eastern Atlantic is often a warning sign that it may not be an easy recurve/fish, especially when it isn't El Nino such as is the case this season. That combined with August geneses having about as high a chance as any time of the season of making it far across the ocean (clearly higher than Sep geneses) is a reason to not assume fish just yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#62 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 15, 2016 12:43 pm

Models have a bad habit of bringing these things north way too quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if this is still south of 20N in 7 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 15, 2016 12:44 pm

Until globals show otherwise, I'd still assume a recurve as the most likely option (but further west than the GFS/ECMWF have it).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#64 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 15, 2016 12:45 pm

It decided to stay down with the moisture in the ITCZ like the last wave.
Last wave did'nt try to climb out and close off till it got west of -53 and by then the shear just destroyed it.
Ridging could evolve differently than forecast I suppose.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#65 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2016 12:50 pm

Up to 40%-50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern
Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are conducive for gradual development of this disturbance
during the next few days, but could become less favorable later this
week. The system is expected to move west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph into the central tropical Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 2 PM TWO up to 40%-50%

#66 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 15, 2016 12:52 pm

50% in 5 days sounds way too low. I'd prefer 40/80 at this point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#67 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:04 pm

LarryWx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z Best Track latitude is lower than first update.

Location: 9.2°N 23.7°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM


The fact that this is moving WSW in the eastern Atlantic is often a warning sign that it may not be an easy recurve/fish, especially when it isn't El Nino such as is the case this season. That combined with August geneses having about as high a chance as any time of the season of making it far across the ocean (clearly higher than Sep geneses) is a reason to not assume fish just yet.


Latest 12Z Euro running now now shows some WSW movement for the next 24 hours before it begins to turn more NW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#68 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:Up to 40%-50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern
Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are conducive for gradual development of this disturbance
during the next few days, but could become less favorable later this
week. The system is expected to move west-northwestward to
northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph into the central tropical Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain


Note that this TWO expects it to move WNW to NW but it is not doing that yet and it has actually been moving WSW today.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#69 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:09 pm

12Z ECMWF going with development again. Run is out through 72 hours so far.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#70 Postby Caneman12 » Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:14 pm

I believe the CMC is trash so is the GFS only look at the Euro only reliable model for now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#71 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:22 pm

12Z Euro taking this directly NW for now. Interesting track since it shows little development yet sends it north. All steering levels indicate what should be west movement, not sure what the euro is seeing.

Steering: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#72 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:28 pm

tolakram wrote:12Z Euro taking this directly NW for now. Interesting track since it shows little development yet sends it north. All steering levels indicate what should be west movement, not sure what the euro is seeing.

Steering: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=


Also, the 12z Euro has the weak low intialized about 2.5-3 degrees too far north (near 12N vs the actual near 9-9.5 N) though it does have it move WSW for the 1st 24 hours before that NW turn.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#73 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:28 pm

12z Euro shows less of a weakness over the Atlantic on this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#74 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:34 pm

Moving 270 west.18z Best Track.

Location: 9.2°N 25.8°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM


Since the first run for 98L.

AL, 98, 2016081500, , BEST, 0, 92N, 205W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, SPAWNINVEST, al752016 to al982016,
AL, 98, 2016081506, , BEST, 0, 92N, 221W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2016081512, , BEST, 0, 92N, 237W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
AL, 98, 2016081518, , BEST, 0, 92N, 258W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#75 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:54 pm

12Z JMA is a little east of the northern Lesser Antilles at 168 hours with the system heading west.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#76 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 15, 2016 2:09 pm

I don't see any south-of-west (not WSW) motion indicated by the EC or GFS. In fact, both indicate a course change to WNW very soon. Nothing to indicate this system, should it develop, will be any threat to land.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#77 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 15, 2016 2:13 pm

Wxman57, from TropicalTidibts site, we see WSW movement between hours 0 and 24 as shown below. Nonethless, I don't see any threat to land at the moment either given the weak subtropical ridge the models are showing:

Image

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#78 Postby abajan » Mon Aug 15, 2016 2:39 pm

LarryWx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Up to 40%-50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern
Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are conducive for gradual development of this disturbance
during the next few days, but could become less favorable later this
week. The system is expected to move west-northwestward to
northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph into the central tropical Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain


Note that this TWO expects it to move WNW to NW but it is not doing that yet and it has actually been moving WSW today.

From the best of my recollection, it's actually pretty common for these systems to move in a somewhat south of west direction while in the far eastern Atlantic. That motion has little, if any, bearing on the eventual track.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#79 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2016 2:44 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#80 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 15, 2016 2:50 pm

12Z UKMET track:

Image
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