ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

ok looking at sat pic this not moving north look more like wnw or w that could cause hurr watch to issue for dade or even upper keys not sure it wobble

Yeah that little tip of Cuba has really taken the bite out of Matt. It does look like it has slowed to a crawl and is getting gutted by that little peice of land, surprisingly. I believe this will have significant impacts on future intensity.

Hopefully that 4000 ft. mountain takes a bite and buys Florida some time. I wish the trough could push it out to sea but no evidence thus far of the high pressure weakening.

[jlauderdal]

ok looking at sat pic this not moving north look more like wnw or w that could cause hurr watch to issue for dade or even upper keys not sure it wobble

Yeah that little tip of Cuba has really taken the bite out of Matt. It does look like it has slowed to a crawl and is getting gutted by that little peice of land, surprisingly. I believe this will have significant impacts on future intensity.

possible track change too...longer it sits the farther south it can come in with that expanding ridge to the north..these intensity and track ideas are just that...land interaction can be a big deal..we wont know until it starts moving and gets away

[La Sirena]

ok looking at sat pic this not moving north look more like wnw or w that could cause hurr watch to issue for dade or even upper keys not sure it wobble

Yeah that little tip of Cuba has really taken the bite out of Matt. It does look like it has slowed to a crawl and is getting gutted by that little peice of land, surprisingly. I believe this will have significant impacts on future intensity.

possible track change too...longer it sits the farther south it can come in with that expanding ridge to the north..these intensity and track ideas are just that...land interaction can be a big deal..we wont know until it starts moving and gets away

Farther south would be crazy. Can't imagine.

[floridasun78]

i hope my eye playing with me moving WNW i going see were eye exit cuba

[Sanibel]

TWC Mike Theiss says men are bracing both doors shut in the building he is in in Baracoa, Cuba. The winds are a constant howl and "it is scary".

[SouthDadeFish]

Very impressive on microwave:

[Laser30033003]

Hay who has that radar link out Cuba

[FLpanhandle91]

Very impressive on microwave:

SouthDadeDish,

Do you see the the satellite presentation as a superficial type of change? Do you believe the core of the storm is in better shape than what recent IR imagery seems to show?

[Michele B]

TWC Mike Theiss says men are bracing both doors shut in the building he is in in Baracoa, Cuba. The winds are a constant howl and "it is scary".

Yes, I heard that. and it brought to mind what I remember when I was a kid....all outside doors of FL homes HAD to open OUT, because of hurricanes....so the wind could NOT blow them in, thus allowing the storm to get into the house. Now, it appears there's no such limitation of which way your door swings into your house. Am I wrong? Is this no longer a part of the building code?

[eastcoastFL]

Here is a very cool image that I found. I like how it breaks down the wind speed projections along the track.

[psyclone]

ok looking at sat pic this not moving north look more like wnw or w that could cause hurr watch to issue for dade or even upper keys not sure it wobble

Yeah that little tip of Cuba has really taken the bite out of Matt. It does look like it has slowed to a crawl and is getting gutted by that little peice of land, surprisingly. I believe this will have significant impacts on future intensity.

This is a large, deep storm. There's no doubt some disruption will take place but the reality is that the windfield has been under the disrupting influence of mountainous terrain for a full day and the storm is hanging in there quite well. If anything, the system deserves a tenacity award. and it will be pulling away from these influences tomorrow. I would continue to bet on a substantial and dangerous storm post Greater Antilles.

[BobHarlem]

Hay who has that radar link out Cuba

Normal loop: http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

Longer term loop: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?231

beware the radar is being blocked by some of the mountains, so it's not as good a picture on the NE side.

[Alyono]

still looks to be moving north to me. Not far from the water again

[SFLcane]

Time table for TS warning in Dade county? Thx

[AdamFirst]

still looks to be moving north to me. Not far from the water again

Yep. Water vapor imagery clearly shows north movement

[dukeblue219]

Time table for TS warning in Dade county? Thx

Tomorrow morning I think? It won't happen until TS conditions are within 36 hours. Right now, if Dade does see them, it would be sometimes Thursday afternoon or evening that those conditions begin.

[Sanibel]

Yes, I heard that. and it brought to mind what I remember when I was a kid....all outside doors of FL homes HAD to open OUT, because of hurricanes....so the wind could NOT blow them in, thus allowing the storm to get into the house. Now, it appears there's no such limitation of which way your door swings into your house. Am I wrong? Is this no longer a part of the building code?

Our front door opens in but it is thick and has a steel hurricane shutter outside it.

[SouthDadeFish]

Very impressive on microwave:

SouthDadeDish,

Do you see the the satellite presentation as a superficial type of change? Do you believe the core of the storm is in better shape than what recent IR imagery seems to show?

Hey, I like that name better Anyway, microwave is definitely more effective at revealing the convective structure of a TC than conventional infrared imagery since IR imagery can only see the cloud tops. It appears that the structure of the storm is more organized than what IR shows. However, it remains to be seen what the TC looks like after emerging from Cuba.

[Evil Jeremy]

Time table for TS warning in Dade county? Thx

Tomorrow morning I think? It won't happen until TS conditions are within 36 hours. Right now, if Dade does see them, it would be sometimes Thursday afternoon or evening that those conditions begin.

I have to imagine tonight. The watches were issued 12 hours ago. 36 hours from now is Thursday 11am, fringe effects would be starting around then.

It's not inconceivable that the NHC waits until tomorrow, but it generally seems the warnings come 12 hours after the watches.

[GeneratorPower]

Madpoodle, I am an electrical engineer and owner of a generator dealership in Southwest Florida. Been doing this 15 years. Your article has good points but in general is full of half truths and misinformation. Mods, maybe shift this to another thread.