ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

I noticed the NAVGEM doesn't even seem to initialize Nicole as a TS but instead a wave. Seems like Mathew ends up absorbing the wave and/or it dissipates.

[TheStormExpert]

NAVGEM is always left biased it seems.

[WPBWeather]

NAVGEM is always left biased it seems.

But its been right when it has been.

[Weatherboy1]

12Z CMC nearly indentical as far as how close to SE Florida it gets from the 00Z run - note it turns almost due west briefly in the NW Bahamas before turning back NNW at the "last minute."

actually, comparing that run vs. the "yellow line" for the CMC on the SFWMD website, it looks like a BIG shift west for the Canadian. Something like 70-100 miles, no? The yellow line track from overnight is east of the northernmost Bahamas. This one is at the west end of Grand Bahamas...

EDIT: Never mind. Looking at wrong model track. Carry on!

[GCANE]

Since Matthew was little phased by Haiti and looks like will just graze Cuba, I think this is worth mentioning.
Here are the models that have performed the best for Matthew with track error less than 100 miles, 3 days out.
Some Euro enembles have also done well but I couldn't pull them up.
Hopefully I can get those later.

[WeatherEmperor]

Since Matthew was little phased by Haiti and looks like will just graze Cuba, I think this is worth mentioning.
Here are the models that have performed the best for Matthew with track error less than 100 miles, 3 days out.
Some Euro enembles have also done well but I couldn't pull them up.
Hopefully I can get those later.

What is the JGSM??


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[AutoPenalti]

NAVGEM has been the same with landfall near or south of WPB for 3 days now. Strange.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles are less clustered east of Florida than 06Z (though still quite clustered) and now several landfalling in SE Florida/Palm Beach County (seems the ones that move Matthew slightly slower on the approach to Florida)

[cjrciadt]

Since Matthew was little phased by Haiti and looks like will just graze Cuba, I think this is worth mentioning.
Here are the models that have performed the best for Matthew with track error less than 100 miles, 3 days out.
Some Euro enembles have also done well but I couldn't pull them up.
Hopefully I can get those later.

What is the JGSM??


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JGSM
Japanese Global Spectral Model
JGSM - Japanese Global Spectral Model
JGSI - Japanese Global Spectral Model (Interpolated 06 hours)
JGS2 - Japanese Global Spectral Model (Interpolated 12 hours)
The JGS2 also goes right over me in Kissimmee lol

[SFLcane]

Wait....lol sooo 12z models appear on a westward trend

[sma10]

NAVGEM has been consistent true, but for today's 12Z to be correct, Matthew would have to start moving more to the West immediately.

[stormreader]

Wait....lol sooo 12z models appear on a westward trend

Not surprised. Many models were late coming to the western solution. If anything, expect further shifts west.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFDL joins the 12z west train, taking Matthew inland Florida what appears to be around the Broward/Palm Beach border, before exiting back into the Atlantic just south of Jacksonville.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wait....lol sooo 12z models appear on a westward trend

That's what I was thinking ..Spaghetti plots got to be tossing some color on FL based on the NavGEM and UK MET and I still think the GGFS was a fraction west of the 06Z. If Euro trends west we will see another west move(closer to peninsula) for the 5pm. That's the big IF..

[tolakram]

12z GEFS run

[lando]

GFDL joins the 12z west train, taking Matthew inland Florida what appears to be around the Broward/Palm Beach border, before exiting back into the Atlantic just south of Jacksonville.

pic?

[JPmia]

NAVGEM has been consistent true, but for today's 12Z to be correct, Matthew would have to start moving more to the West immediately.

I don't see that.. It's on track at the moment.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Gfdl landfall in south florida. Now we have Gfdl, Ukmet and Nogaps with south florida landfalls.




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[tolakram]

This plot is on the Weatherbell free server so posting it here.



source: http://weather.graphics/AL14_current.png

[ronjon]

GFDL joins the 12z west train, taking Matthew inland Florida what appears to be around the Broward/Palm Beach border, before exiting back into the Atlantic just south of Jacksonville.

pic?

Run isn't posted on Trop Tidbits yet. But track is on SWFWMD site:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots