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GeneratorPower wrote:Madpoodle, I am an electrical engineer and owner of a generator dealership in Southwest Florida. Been doing this 15 years. Your article has good points but in general is full of half truths and misinformation. Mods, maybe shift this to another thread.
fox13weather wrote:I bet ya this storm will end up being a lot like Floyd in 1999. Scare the daylight out of everyone on the east coast of Florida and then never make landfall in the state. Floyd was the third largest evacuation in US history.
sbcc wrote:GeneratorPower wrote:Madpoodle, I am an electrical engineer and owner of a generator dealership in Southwest Florida. Been doing this 15 years. Your article has good points but in general is full of half truths and misinformation. Mods, maybe shift this to another thread.
Second this. My wife is an electrician. She says it is illegal in our state (Michigan) to pull your meter. Only the utility can remove/replace them. They put locking tabs on them here.
fox13weather wrote:I bet ya this storm will end up being a lot like Floyd in 1999. Scare the daylight out of everyone on the east coast of Florida and then never make landfall in the state. Floyd was the third largest evacuation in US history.
fox13weather wrote:I bet ya this storm will end up being a lot like Floyd in 1999. Scare the daylight out of everyone on the east coast of Florida and then never make landfall in the state. Floyd was the third largest evacuation in US history.
floridasun78 wrote:fox13weather what you seen you think hurr watch will issue south to dade?
Matthew devastates Haiti…battering eastern Cuba…takes aim at the Bahamas
A Hurricane Watch is issued from Golden Beach FL to the Brevard/Volusia County line. This watch will likely need to be extended northward later this evening or early Thursday.
Dangerous hurricane event increasingly likely for FL and the SE US coast. Preparations for the impact of a major hurricane should be underway along the highly populated E FL coast.
Discussion:
Matthew struck SW Haiti this morning and is currently making landfall over eastern Cuba with sustained winds of 140mph. The hurricane has maintained a well defined eye per Guantanamo Bay radar today and the disruption of the inner core over Haiti was minimal. Matthew is starting to expand in size likely due to land interaction and an eyewall replacement cycle that completed just prior to landfall this morning. Hurricane force winds extend outward 45 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 185 miles. The latest pressure by the USAF aircraft was 949mb
Track:
Track guidance has shift a little more to the west today and the threat of Matthew now striking a large portion of the east FL coast is real. Both the GFDL, ECMWF, and UKMET models now show a direct hit of the core of Matthew into the heavily populated barrier island that runs along much of the FL east coast from near West Palm Beach northward to near Jacksonville. The official NHC track has been shifted very close to the FL east coast and is close enough that the damaging core of Matthew may impact much of the coast. It should be clearly noted that since the hurricane will be moving nearly along or just offshore of the coast that a small deviation of only 10-15 miles could mean the difference between major hurricane conditions or weak hurricane conditions.
Matthew will then turn N to NNE as the high pressure that will induce the NW turn in the Bahamas shifts eastward and a trough approaches the hurricane from the NW. This track brings Matthew right along or just offshore of the entire SE US coast from EC FL to the NC Outer Banks with a possible landfall over SC/NC this weekend. The confidence in the track beyond Thursday evening is somewhat poor as the hurricane may in fact strike the FL coast and move slightly more westward than currently forecast…or more in line with the ECMWF model which would result in changes to the downstream track. Additionally some of the model guidance is showing a hard right (eastward) turn of the hurricane after striking or brushing FL which might spare the Carolinas…it is too soon to tell how close Matthew may come to that portion of the coast.
Intensity:
Matthew will likely weakening some tonight as the circulation interacts with Cuba and Haiti…but conditions are very favorable for intensification over the Bahamas and it is likely that the entire Bahamas island chain will feel the force of a major hurricane over the next 24-36 hours. Matthew if forecast to remain a major category 3 or higher hurricane as far north as the latitude of Jacksonville, FL with some weakening possible during the later period. Should Matthew directly strike the FL east coast then significant changes would be required at the longer ranges to show much more weakening than forecasted currently.
Impacts:
Matthew poses a potentially significant threat to the FL east coast and much of the SE US coast including GA and SC where strong hurricane hits are rare due to the concave shape of the coast….this is especially true around the Jacksonville, FL area. At this time hurricane conditions with sustained winds above 75mph are likely in the hurricane watch area and should Matthew shift slightly more to the west sustained winds of 100-115mph would rake the FL east from West Palm Beach northward to near Jacksonville including Cape Canaveral.
Storm surge flooding of 10-15 ft above the ground is likely across nearly all of the Bahamas Islands…which will be devastating. Storm surge flooding of 3-5 feet above ground level is possible along the FL east coast barrier island from West Palm Beach northward along with 10-15 foot waves which will likely breach and overtop dune protection and result in considerable damage to coastal structures.
FL Storm Surge Inundation Map from Matthew NHC Advisory # 27:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the FL east coast from north of West Palm Beach to north of Cape Canaveral.
Impacts are likely northward along the SE US coast especially in the SC/NC area…but it is too early to know the specifics.
Craig Setzer Meteorologist worry dade may get hurr wind if Matthew take more southern trackSFLcane wrote:floridasun78 wrote:fox13weather what you seen you think hurr watch will issue south to dade?
"And" time table for TS Warnings for Dade county. Thx
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Just about to hit critical mass when the discussion page number passes the model page number 303/322. Then you know people are paying close attention
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Just about to hit critical mass when the discussion page number passes the model page number 303/322. Then you know people are paying close attention
fox13weather wrote:I bet ya this storm will end up being a lot like Floyd in 1999. Scare the daylight out of everyone on the east coast of Florida and then never make landfall in the state. Floyd was the third largest evacuation in US history.
GeneratorPower wrote:Madpoodle, I am an electrical engineer and owner of a generator dealership in Southwest Florida. Been doing this 15 years. Your article has good points but in general is full of half truths and misinformation. Mods, maybe shift this to another thread.
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