ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

Yes it's a shame we can't get a major to slam the coast and ruin millions of lives.[/quote]

Hey you are speculating as to what I said and meant and trust me I didn't mean that is what I wanted. My first big blow was Elana but even worse was Hugo and I was ground zero. Unlike you I am in a area that I have all to loose and I cried when my best bud in Homestead lost everything along with others in Andrew[/quote]

I'm sorry for your losses, I think deep down everyone here wants to see a strong storm make landfall but they don't want to see people suffer.

[sunnyday]

As always with a pending storm, I am concerned about the people AND animals that will suffer as a result.
Praying for safety for those in the path....

[northjaxpro]

Good morning NorthJax, I will help monitor St Augustine and WGV area where I live. I have made the decision to get supplies today just in case like flashlights and batteries for sure. Looks pretty good now that the cone is set with minor wobbles. Intensity is one thing no one is sure of but I'm thinking cat 1 or very close at landfall.

Everyone be safe the next 48-60 hours!

Smart reasoning. I think definitely we will have scattered power outages across the region Tigerz3030. I am on the north side of Jax area, and my primary concern, as with any landfalling tropical cyclone and its dynamics is severe weather and the tornado threat. I really have to worry abouti flying debris, especially tree limbs etc. in my neighborhood near Blount Island. Also, with this area being in that right front quadrant, unfortunately the slight north shift on the track really entrenches NE Florida in the worst side of the storm. Therefore the threat for small mesoscale tornadoes will really be a concern as well.

So, if this system intensifies to close to or attains Cat 1 status, likely we would see tropical storm winds inland up to 50 mph or possibly higher in gusts as the cyclone moves through the region Thursday-late Friday timeframe.

[stormchasr]

Typical slop of the past decade. It really doesn't matter where the COC is all the weather is going to be east and southeast of the sheared mess. Its been pouring here with thunder for the past 3 hrs (Pinellas Point area Florida). Watching these systems the past few years I am inclined to believe that someone is messing with these storms to disrupt them. There is no way that this ragged system couldn't get its act together in as many days at some point as this thing been lingering in the basin unless someone is experimenting with seeding or some other weather control. Notice that Fish storm Gaston was able several times to get its act together but over the past several years no matter what above weather patterns happen there have been nothing near the coast. I also bring into example TD8 which pulsed up and looked very healthy then 3 hrs later it was trashed.

Absolutely agree.

[tigerz3030]

"I'm thinking that schools will cancelled for tomorrow also and I agree about the concern for tornadoes to spin up out of no where quickly". Looking like cedar key as landfall in my opinion

[SouthDadeFish]

For as impressive as TD 9 looks on IR imagery, it still lacks any semblance of an inner-core on recent microwave imagery:



This suggests to me that as of the microwave pass, the low- and mid-level centers may not be vertically aligned. However, with such deep convection firing over the low-level center, it is only a matter of time. Additionally, I would be surprised if somewhere in that convection there isn't TS force winds. With that being said, intensification will be a slow process until the centers can become more vertically aligned.

[cdavis6287]

Lol I love hearing the projections. People from LA and the panhandle swear its gonna keep tracking west and is coming for them. People in north central Fl swear its gonna track east and go for them.

[Alyono]

Based upon the microwave, this thing has somehow become less organized than was Colin

[TJRE]

48hr surface prog from the OPC

I will not embellish this....



http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

IR sat

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/ ... o-ir-0-24#

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

[NDG]

Yeap, no core at all. It seems the MLC is to the east of the surface coc.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I came across this on Twitter:

 https://twitter.com/airmarci/status/770870481352286208

[SouthDadeFish]

For reference, here is the IR imagery I was referring to for TD 9 AKA the "blob of doom"

imagen

Nice burst with < 80C brightness temps. You gotta remember though, it's what's going on under the cirrus canopy that matters.

[hurricaneCW]

I guess it's going to keep going through these burst cycles until it gets better aligned. Very frustrating system right up there with Fay.

[jlauderdal]

Based upon the microwave, this thing has somehow become less organized than was Colin

it really is having trouble finding the right setup...its the tropics though so if it can find something better for 24 hours before landfall it could go to a 1, if I was in the big bend area i would prepare for a 1..water, batteries, fuel for the generator...you can always use it later so why not

I started my generator last week when it was aiming at sofla..4 cases of water($14) in my garage for the duration of the season

ex invest 92l looks interesting only because it stays weak for the trip across and gets into a more favorable area..the systems that develop west of 50 are the ones most likely to make landfall

[drewschmaltz]

For reference, here is the IR imagery I was referring to for TD 9 AKA the "blob of doom"

I was thinking "The Great Tropical Depression of 2016".

[cdavis6287]

48hr surface prog from the OPC

I will not embellish this....



http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

IR sat

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/ ... o-ir-0-24#

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

So it looks like it gets pushed into around the Cedar Key area. Also the weaker it is for the time being it will be more prone to head more eastward correct?

[northjaxpro]

"I'm thinking that schools will cancelled for tomorrow also and I agree about the concern for tornadoes to spin up out of no where quickly". Looking like cedar key as landfall in my opinion

Landfall will likely be in that Big Bend region, which has been focused by the models the past couple of days. Hopefully that trough coming down from the Midwest into the Southeast U.S. will be strong enough to grab this cyclone and pull it away from the region the next 48-72 hours. Definitely do not want to entertain any '85 Elena scenario thoughts like NDG painfully reminded us above.

Also Tigerz3030, I am thinking that our highest elevated bridges and highly exposed.bridges over water may get closed with the storm with high winds, especially the Dames Point, Buckman, Hart and Mathews . I think once winds exceed 40 mph threshold, the city of Jacksonvillle and Florida DOT closes them until the threat is.gone.

[ronjon]

Well it's now or never for TD 9 to further develop. If it can't vertically align under this heavy convective burst with near ideal upper level conditions, I don't think it ever will.

[cdavis6287]

"I'm thinking that schools will cancelled for tomorrow also and I agree about the concern for tornadoes to spin up out of no where quickly". Looking like cedar key as landfall in my opinion

Landfall will likely be in that Big Bend region, which has been focused by the models the past couple of days. Hopefully that trough coming down from the Midwest into the Southeast U.S. will be strong enough to grab this cyclone and pull it away from the region the next 48-72 hours. Definitely do not want to entertain any '85 Elena scenario thoughts like NDG painfully reminded us above.

Also Tigerz3030, I am thinking that our highest elevated bridges and highly exposed.bridges over water may get closed with the storm with high winds, especially the Dames Point, Buckman, Hart and Mathews . I think once winds exceed 40 mph threshold, the city of and Florida DOT closes them until the threat is.gone.

You are correct. Bridges shut down once winds hit 40 mph sustained.

[northjaxpro]

I guess it's going to keep going through these burst cycles until it gets better aligned. Very frustrating system right up there with Fay.

It has been a head scratcher and a head pounding system to monitor now into 13 days! Still, we have no designated named cyclone to this point. Amazing and Perplexing both!!