ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Well it's now or never for TD 9 to further develop. If it can't vertically align under this heavy convective burst with near ideal upper level conditions, I don't think it ever will.

I agree.

[Blinhart]

I put the center around 23.5N, 88.3W. So it is basically just sitting there waiting to stack up. And yes Louisiana is suppose to be getting a cool front (if you can call it that, High of 93 on Thursday, 90 on Friday, 89 Saturday, 88 Sunday, 84 Monday), but it doesn't pass through until Sunday Night.

[NDG]

The trough is not coming in from the Mid West US, the trough is diving down from SE Canada into the NE US, the trough axis will be to the NE of TD 9 as it makes landfall along the gulf coast, this will not sweep TD 9 out into the deep Atlantic Ocean that fast. Both the Euro and GFS are playing with the idea that the NE trough will leave TD 9 behind off of the mid Atlantic states as ridging builds quickly over SE Canada which may get the system to stick around close to the NE US coastal waters through mid week next week.

[TimeZone]

Praying for everyone in the path of this monster blob.

[SouthFloridawx]

Recon never went out, huh?

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[cdavis6287]

My guess is it will start creeping NE. Will be named by 2pm at the latest. It will steadily intinsify if not rapidly due to the warm waters and low shear. Won't have time to get too strong. Possibly and that's a BIG possibly a Cat 1. My guess is just north of Cedar Key, Fl tomorrow evening/night traveling NE. We shall see. Pretty much what the NHC says except I think a tad east from what they're projection is. Worked all night and been following this. Frustrating to say the least. Good night! See you in a few hours.

The posts I conduct here on the Storm2K forum are not official forecasts. They are strictly my educated opinions. For official information, please refer to the National Hurricane Center and NWS products.

[ftolmsteen]

St. Pete already getting heavy rains. I-275/54th Ave. off ramp closed due to heavy flooding.
https://twitter.com/TampaBayTraffic

[TJRE]

So it looks like it gets pushed into around the Cedar Key area. Also the weaker it is for the time being it will be more prone to head more eastward correct?

In theory yes...
I just think the pissing contests are what some posters come here for


WPC storm prog QPF
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/q ... e=AL092016

[NDG]

I put the center around 23.5N, 88.3W. So it is basically just sitting there waiting to stack up. And yes Louisiana is suppose to be getting a cool front (if you can call it that, High of 93 on Thursday, 90 on Friday, 89 Saturday, 88 Sunday, 84 Monday), but it doesn't pass through until Sunday Night.

Some TV met must be lying to you guys, GFS shows highs in the low to mid 90s through labor day weekend but it does show that dewpoints will drop down to the upper 50s to 60s on Saturday into Sunday morning making it more comfortable heat

[SEASON_CANCELED]

This thing is stationary

[northjaxpro]

The trough is not coming in from the Mid West US, the trough is diving down from SE Canada into the NE US, the trough axis will be to the NE of TD 9 as it makes landfall along the gulf coast, this will not sweep TD 9 out into the deep Atlantic Ocean that fast. Both the Euro and GFS are playing with the idea that the NE trough will leave TD 9 behind off of the mid Atlantic states as ridging builds quickly over SE Canada which may get the system to stick around close to the NE US coastal waters through mid week next week.

I apologize and thanks for catching my oversight NDG. I did not catch my error as I intended to say the Mid Atlantic, not the Midwest for the approaching trough.

Sorry again for my error. NDG, I hope that trough is strong enough to pull this system away. But, with this system, I am not ruling anything out.

[NDG]

The trough is not coming in from the Mid West US, the trough is diving down from SE Canada into the NE US, the trough axis will be to the NE of TD 9 as it makes landfall along the gulf coast, this will not sweep TD 9 out into the deep Atlantic Ocean that fast. Both the Euro and GFS are playing with the idea that the NE trough will leave TD 9 behind off of the mid Atlantic states as ridging builds quickly over SE Canada which may get the system to stick around close to the NE US coastal waters through mid week next week.

I apologize and thanks for catching my oversight NDG. I did not catch my error as I intended to say the Mid Atlantic, not the Midwest for the approaching trough.

Sorry again for my error. NDG, I hope that trough is strong enough to pull this system away. But, with this system, I am not ruling anything out.

No problem northjaxpro, I was just pointing that out to the general readers that might have thought that there's a big trough sweeping across the US from west to east into the Atlantic ocean.
Latest 06 GFS has TD9 meadering around the NW Atlantic for the next 2 weeks, is laughable but I wouldn't doubt it either if it plays out

[Blinhart]

I put the center around 23.5N, 88.3W. So it is basically just sitting there waiting to stack up. And yes Louisiana is suppose to be getting a cool front (if you can call it that, High of 93 on Thursday, 90 on Friday, 89 Saturday, 88 Sunday, 84 Monday), but it doesn't pass through until Sunday Night.

Some TV met must be lying to you guys, GFS shows highs in the low to mid 90s through labor day weekend but it does show that dewpoints will drop down to the upper 50s to 60s on Saturday into Sunday morning making it more comfortable heat

From Weather.com

[caneman]

We have been been getting absolutely hammered with rain for over 3 hours at Clearwater Beach. Extreme downpours with some road flooding already. Lightning and thunder like crazy and this is only a feeder band.

[drezee]

NOAA...please get recon out there...remember Opal....

[benh316]

We have been been getting absolutely hammered with rain for over 3 hours at Clearwater Beach. Extreme downpours with some road flooding already.

Oh it's coming... I'm down in St. Lucie myself. Personally I think the storm will boomerang and go more east than they are currently projecting.. More south Florida than north

[SouthFloridawx]

When is the next mission going out?

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[northjaxpro]

NOAA...please get recon out there...remember Opal....

I have not checked the recent schedule, but with a system this close to landfall, I would think they would have Recon ready to fly in frequently at this juncture.

[Blinhart]

When is the next mission going out?

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Seems they had some mechanical issues might be a while.

[Emmett_Brown]

Wow, looks amazing on IR... like Jupiter's red spot! I guess looks can be deceiving... This has to be the biggest convective burst so far. You have to think pressures would lower a bit from this...