ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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caneseddy
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6121 Postby caneseddy » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:51 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:12Z NAVGEM goes way west ...In at Broward/Dade out near Tampa into Tally. :lol:


Looks like it has a sharper turn than the other models which sends it over or just south of Andros, hence the landfall being more towards Miami-Dade/Broward
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6122 Postby bqknight » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:51 pm

Further S through 24. Ridge looks about the same.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6123 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:51 pm

Vdogg wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Hmmmmm -- is the EURO hung or just slow on this run?

Euro was slow yesterday too, took about an hour to complete the run.


Delay in the output, as per Tropical Tidbits.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6124 Postby drezee » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:51 pm

chris_fit wrote:Hmmmmm -- is the EURO hung or just slow on this run?

Euro data is delayed today by an hour or so. They made an announcement
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6125 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:52 pm

12z Euro now running! Out to 24hrs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6126 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:52 pm

Euro at 24 hours is already noticeably slower than the GFS which was already slower than the 06Z run by a smidge. Ridge looks about the same.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6127 Postby crm6360 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:52 pm

EURO is taking a few minutes to compose himself off-camera.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6128 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:52 pm

Did Euro initialize to far south?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6129 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:53 pm

A couple more of the best performing models

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6130 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:54 pm

Blown Away wrote:Did Euro initialize to far south?

Yep. :roll:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6131 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:54 pm

Euro slightly slower and stronger with the ridge as compared to yesterday's 12Z.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6132 Postby chris_fit » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:54 pm

24hrs..

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6133 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:55 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Did Euro initialize to far south?

Yep. :roll:


I don't think so, compare to 12Z GFS 0 hour position...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6134 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:55 pm

With initialization being too far south could this throw a curveball in things?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6135 Postby ThetaE » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:55 pm

Blown Away wrote:Did Euro initialize to far south?


I don't think it did. The initialization frame is 12z today, which was at 8 AM EST. Maybe it's a bit more noticeable because the Euro's an hour late?
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TimeZone

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6136 Postby TimeZone » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:56 pm

chris_fit wrote:Euro Running Finally...

Init...

Image


Looks to be a bit South of where Matthew is right now...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6137 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:57 pm

The model run initialized at 12Z, which is 8 am eastern time. The storm was over Haiti at that time.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6138 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:57 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:With initialization being too far south could this throw a curveball in things?


Init was same as GFS.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6139 Postby chris_fit » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:58 pm

TimeZone wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Euro Running Finally...

Init...

[img]https://s18.postimg.org/mj08znevd/init.png[/img


Looks to be a bit South of where Matthew is right now...


You are correct, that's where Matthew was @ 12Z - about 6 hours ago - about right
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6140 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:59 pm

12Z Euro 24 hour looks like it is going to verify too far south!
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