ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/783504064738754561

I know this is not an official instrument used by NHC abut could it mean a sign of weakening?

[HurricaneEric]

To my fellow Miamians, portions of Miami-Dade now at 60-70% probability of seeing tropical storm force winds. Those portions also at 10-20% for hurricane force winds.

[sbcc]

Did you guys just see that!!!!

A bazillion posts about generator home hookups. Could we move it to another thread?

Mea culpa. Said all I had to say, points made and taken. Learned a few things. Sorry for the distraction.

[Johnny77]

Why is NHC not forecasting any strengthening on Wednesday, especially given their write up about how conditions will be so favorable?

[AdamFirst]

Palm Beach County Schools are in full session tomorrow - parents & teachers unhappy according to WPTV

[Madpoodle]

We had a couple linemen killed during Andrew due to bad generator hook ups. I didn't have shore power at the house till end of September, office until November. Fed and talked to a TON of linemen LOL.

In south florida after andrew i pulled my meter while using gen and was thanked by the Fpl worker for doing so.

Looks like FPL has a different policy than Consumers. I'm gathering that it might be best to check with your local utility?

Before I get in further trouble here, I don't believe that is FPL's official policy for one second. But when your in the field and you don't want to die...

If there is a bettter spot to discuss this, please let me know. I will Post the original commentary there for critique. Otherwise I need to get busy putting my generator away

[drewschmaltz]

Did you guys just see that!!!!

A bazillion posts about generator home hookups. Could we move it to another thread?

Was less than a bazillion till yours

And now that Matthew isn't hitting Florida, I am going to put my generator back in the warehouse..

I was worried about adding to the noise and you rightly called me out on it.

The second part of your post makes no sense. I think you may have accidentally said you were putting your generator back because Matthew wasn't hitting Fl when you meant to say you were getting it out because he may well run us over.

[AdamFirst]

Why is NHC not forecasting any strengthening on Wednesday, especially given their write up about how conditions will be so favorable?

The NHC is generally conservative with intensity forecasts - they were once predicting a category 3 offshore of central Florida.

[Evenstar]

Palm Beach County Schools are in full session tomorrow - parents & teachers unhappy according to WPTV

Do these people not understand the value of INTERNAL public relations? Lame.

[Madpoodle]

And now that Matthew isn't hitting Florida, I am going to put my generator back in the warehouse..

I think you may have accidentally said you were putting your generator back because Matthew wasn't hitting Fl when you meant to say you were getting it out because he may well run us over.

Getting us back on topic

[dukeblue219]

Palm Beach County Schools are in full session tomorrow - parents & teachers unhappy according to WPTV

What the heck? Schools in *Columbia, South Carolina* are closed already for the whole week. What are they thinking?

[bamajammer4eva]

Why is NHC not forecasting any strengthening on Wednesday, especially given their write up about how conditions will be so favorable?

They expect fluctuations and cycling so it could strengthen or weaken a few mph but either way it supposed to stay a major.

The current 10-15 kt of northwesterly vertical wind shear is
forecast to weaken to around 5 kt by 36-48 hours while Matthew is
moving over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, where SSTs are
expected to be near 30 deg C. That combination, along with high
mid-level humidity, should enable Matthew to maintain category four
status, although eyewall replacement cycles, which can not be
forecast with any skill, could result in fluctuations in the
intensity not shown by the official forecast.

[NDG]

Noticed it remains at cat 4 all the way up toward Jacksonville. ACE much?

I'm sure the fact Matthew will have racked up big ACE numbers will be consolation for those on the Florida East Coast who feel his fury.

It just became the Hurricane with the most ACE so far this year over the Western Hemisphere, including the EPAC.

[psyclone]

Gang, just to underscore the importance of not needing to be in the cone to suffer substantial impacts, take a look at the 11 pm advisory graphic and make note of the expansive areas under watches and warnings that reside OUTSIDE of the cone...

[WPBWeather]

Gang, just to underscore the importance of not needing to be in the cone to suffer substantial impacts, take a look at the 11 pm advisory graphic and make note of the expansive areas under watches and warnings that reside OUTSIDE of the cone...

Thank you for saying that again. I guess you need to repeat it every few hours.

[AdamFirst]

Gang, just to underscore the importance of not needing to be in the cone to suffer substantial impacts, take a look at the 11 pm advisory graphic and make note of the expansive areas under watches and warnings that reside OUTSIDE of the cone...

Thank you for saying that again. I guess you need to repeat it every few hours.

It's something that should be repeated - lots of people just look at the line and figure "Oh, it's not coming here!"

[NDG]

If you guys wonder why they are not going by the TVCN consensus model which they usually do is because the right biased HWRF keeps getting that solution to be slightly to the right of both models. IMO.

If you zoom in you can see the 11pm track is right on top of the Tvcn consensus.

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016100 ... 269e1f.jpg


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

Oops, I was looking at the 18z runs, not the 0z runs.

[Mouton]

Our local TV met guy suggested there will probably be an evac alert for all the beach communities beginning in Fernandina and south as far as the TV signal is carried which would be through Flagler Beach. He said it would probably start thursday morning.

I hope if they do issue such an alert they make it plain that unless you are close to the coast or a low lying area off the coast, you do not need to leave. When this happened with Floyd in 99 it took nine plus hours to go 200 miles assuming you had enough gas to make the journey.

That new path issued at 11PM by the NHC seemed to stun him a tad. I notice looking at it that the cone was extended west quite a bit up and down the state.

Frankly an evac would not surprise me and we have been planning for it as a just in case so we are set to go at 6am on Thursday.

Stay alert and be safe

[NDG]

I'm surprised they didn't put Orange & Seminole Counties under either a TS or Hurricane Watch, I guess tomorrow morning.

That's up to your local NWS. You guys look to get blasted so I'm sure it's coming.

Yeah, they just put us under a Hurricane watch including Osceola County.

[HurricaneBelle]

Noticed it remains at cat 4 all the way up toward Jacksonville. ACE much?

I'm sure the fact Matthew will have racked up big ACE numbers will be consolation for those on the Florida East Coast who feel his fury.

It just became the Hurricane with the most ACE so far this year over the Western Hemisphere, including the EPAC.

That was.....not the response I was expecting.