ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Remember the ghost of Ivan looping back?

[AModestLion]

I don't like how it comes back up the coast...it was looking like N/E was getting lucky, now it has a second shot to do something crazy.
I mean, I'm not taking light at the possibilities of FL and Bahamas, but holy crap...does it phase at the end there? Looks like a lot of snow.

[sponger]

Gas stations running out in North Florida.

[JKingTampa]

COnvection building fast around the center as it moves away from land.. wont take long to make a come back. actually im intrigued at how fast the southern portion has developed convection so quickly.

All the parts of the storm that are currently over water and blossoming very quickly. Wouldn't be surprised if under the current conditions it makes it back up to 155 mph before weakening again.

[chaser1]

It almost looks to me on satellite imagery that Matthew seemingly is trying to move on a NW heading. He is also slowing just a bit.

I still think for at least the next 48 hours Matthew has ideal conditions to rampup. I still think there is a window for him to make another run at Cat 5, which I think could happen when the cyclone traverses close into the Central Bahamas.

My thoughts completely! Tough part is being in Orlando with family in Miami, Broward, Jensen Beach, and St. Augustine... there's hardly anywhere to go in the state that seems safe. Oh, I know "lets all head over to Tampa!" Sure, like Matthew hadn't already thought THAT one out too

[WHYB630]

http://im2.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-962359100.gif

Very scary...I hope it just goes OTS after sliding..that loop cannot happen

For me it is like a joke now, unless the looping appears again in the next few runs.

[JKingTampa]

It almost looks to me on satellite imagery that Matthew seemingly is trying to move on a NW heading. He is also slowing just a bit.

I still think for at least the next 48 hours Matthew has ideal conditions to rampup. I still think there is a window for him to make another run at Cat 5, which I think could happen when the cyclone traverses close into the Central Bahamas.

My thoughts completely! Tough part is being in Orlando with family in Miami, Broward, Jensen Beach, and St. Augustine... there's hardly anywhere to go in the state that seems safe. Oh, I know "lets all head over to Tampa!" Sure, like Matthew hadn't already thought THAT one out too

Basically all of the central and southern parts of the state have a run at wherever Matthew decides he wants to go.

[sponger]

This could be a 50 mph wind event for North Florida or an eyewall 125 plus. 50 is fun, 125 is terrifying. So close to coast, staying could be scary. 100 mph gusts at Jacksonville beach predicted on current track. Going to be a long couple of days.

[Alyono]

Matthew continues due north as per recon

[chaser1]

http://im2.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-962359100.gif

Very scary...I hope it just goes OTS after sliding..that loop cannot happen

For me it is like a joke now, unless the looping appears again in the next few run.

You kidding, if Matthew landfalls in Florida and that model run ever verifies -

We'll all likely end up seeing that looping again, over and over in our nightmares. There just isn't nearly enough mental therapists in the state of florida for that

[Chris_in_Tampa]

1:09am EDT sonde splash:

963mb
12 knots of surface wind

[Chris_in_Tampa]

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 320° to 140° (NW to SE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)

[sponger]

http://im2.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-962359100.gif

Very scary...I hope it just goes OTS after sliding..that loop cannot happen

For me it is like a joke now, unless the looping appears again in the next few run.

You kidding, if Matthew landfalls in Florida and that model run ever verifies -

We'll all likely end up seeing that looping again, over and over in our nightmares. There just isn't nearly enough mental therapists in the state of florida for that

Most of us would still be without power!

[AJC3]

Matthew continues due north as per recon

Well, not exactly due north if you average the points south of Cuba. I'd put it at about N/350, with trochoidal variance between 340 and 360.

Pretty much behaving as forecast. The gradual turn toward the NW is commencing.

[Johnny77]

Yep, pressure is up to 963 MB. Never underestimate the impact of mountains on tropical systems! But, this time tomorrow we won't be talking about mountains, and I imagine Matthew will strengthen at least some Wednesday afternoon and night.

[sikkar]

Hello, long time lurker here.. We live in St. Augustine around I 95 area. I was wondering, based on the most recent models, if we should expect trop/hurricane force winds ??

Another question: could Mathew at some point , "suck" the moisture/energe from Nicole and in turn strenghten some?

Thanks,,,

[Aric Dunn]

Matthew continues due north as per recon

Well, not exactly due north if you average the points south of Cuba. I'd put it at about N/350, with trochoidal variance between 340 and 360.

Pretty much behaving as forecast. The gradual turn toward the NW is commencing.

Agreed, still could see some left bias in track from the southern portion of the circ interacting with the terrain over the next few hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Hello, long time lurker here.. We live in St. Augustine around I 95 area. I was wondering, based on the most recent models, if we should expect trop/hurricane force winds ??

Another question: could Mathew at some point , "suck" the moisture/energe from Nicole and in turn strenghten some?

Thanks,,,

always prepare for one category above what is shown. the angle of approach is such that any wobble left could bring it into any part of florida. just prepare and hope for the best.

as for the second question. no.

if they were to get close enough to interact it would cause more of a disruption in matthew and not help it strengthen.

[sikkar]

@ Aric, thanks!! Always good to be over prepared than let your gaurd down.

Also it'll be great if you can elaborate as to why Nicole could disrupt Matthew... thanks,,,

[rickybobby]

Per wesh 2 Daytona should be seeing winds over 76 mph and 5-10 inches of rain. This is if it says about 35 miles of the coast.