ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[HurricaneFrances04]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783387761168490496

Looks like it basically rides the Florida East Coast from Jupiter north.

[miamijaaz]

Suspect run? There was issues with the data that prevented data coming out in time. I'll wait until 00z to see if this is an actual trend with the ECMWF.

The other models (except HWRF) shifted west too though.

[Alyono]

the MU was the MU in full force at 12Z.

Just compared 12Z upper air data to the MU initialization. The ridge is too weak. It has the 500mb 5900DM contour EAST of Bermuda, when the data indicate it is over Bermuda. Heights are also higher over Florida than modeled by about 10DM

[Soonercane]

Suspect run? There was issues with the data that prevented data coming out in time. I'll wait until 00z to see if this is an actual trend with the ECMWF.

Yeah possible junk run, motion looks abnormal.

[WPBWeather]

Track for Matt just disappeared from Storm2K map??

[chris_fit]

This is so reminding me of Charley, except other side of the state, and a ridge nudging it and not a trough.

One budge W near FL and Miami gets it - like the push that saved Tampa from Charley - Can you imagine a Cat4 going into Miami/Dade/Broward Area?

Havoc.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Track for Matt just disappeared from Storm2K map??

A lot of the model plots are missing on the SFWMD site, I just noticed.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/783388674872320000

[chaser1]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783387761168490496

Clarification please. Just saw two EURO products, one showing Florida coastline landfall S. of Cocaine beach in 72 hrs., but just prior... a maximum gust forecast that keeps winds on the coast in the 90's range and appearant track off shore??

[Soonercane]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783387761168490496

Clarification please. Just saw two EURO products, one showing Florida coastline landfall S. of Cocaine beach in 72 hrs., but just prior... a maximum gust forecast that keeps winds on the coast in the 90's range and appearant track off shore??

Might be due to either the fact that the western quadrant is usually weaker wind-wise and/or the impact of surface roughness on near surface wind speeds.

[Vdogg]

Suspect run? There was issues with the data that prevented data coming out in time. I'll wait until 00z to see if this is an actual trend with the ECMWF.

The other models (except HWRF) shifted west too though.

Shifted west...Yes. Did a loop d loop and came out in the gulf....Mostly no. Gotta use Occams Razor here. The euro doesn't typically have such large variations in the 2-3 day time frame. It's been acting weird for the entire storm. Suspect run is the simplest answer.

[Aric Dunn]

Suspect run? There was issues with the data that prevented data coming out in time. I'll wait until 00z to see if this is an actual trend with the ECMWF.

The other models (except HWRF) shifted west too though.

Shifted west...Yes. Did a loop d loop and came out in the gulf....Mostly no. Gotta use Occams Razor here. The euro doesn't typically have such large variations in the 2-3 day time frame. It's been acting weird for the entire storm. Suspect run is the simplest answer.

maybe suspect towards the end of run but not the next 3 days...

[StarmanHDB]

For what it's worth, Carl Parker (TWC) just mentioned the latest Euro run...."A very strange run."

[TimeZone]

Certainly not buying the Euro as of this moment. Next run will be very, very telling.

[Vdogg]

The other models (except HWRF) shifted west too though.

Shifted west...Yes. Did a loop d loop and came out in the gulf....Mostly no. Gotta use Occams Razor here. The euro doesn't typically have such large variations in the 2-3 day time frame. It's been acting weird for the entire storm. Suspect run is the simplest answer.

maybe suspect towards the end of run but not the next 3 days...

Yes, I should clarify. I definitely think it'll be very close if not on Florida. Just not buying the loop and Gulf solution at the end. I think this rides the coast up till Hatteras, which would be a typical solution for this setup.

[xironman]

Suspect run? There was issues with the data that prevented data coming out in time. I'll wait until 00z to see if this is an actual trend with the ECMWF.

The other models (except HWRF) shifted west too though.

Shifted west...Yes. Did a loop d loop and came out in the gulf....Mostly no. Gotta use Occams Razor here. The euro doesn't typically have such large variations in the 2-3 day time frame. It's been acting weird for the entire storm. Suspect run is the simplest answer.

The GFS ensemble has had a few members do the loop, but not to that extreme.

[TheDreamTraveler]

The ECMWF hardly deviates 1-3 days out. So that part of the run doesn't look so suspect. After that? Maybe. We'll have to see. But the fact it shows a possible landfall in 2-3 days away isn't that likely to change.

If the ECMWF/UKMET do end up showing this hitting Florida and then doing a loop de loop and missing the Carolinas then at least it'll be good for them. Worse for Florida.

[WeatherEmperor]

the MU was the MU in full force at 12Z.

Just compared 12Z upper air data to the MU initialization. The ridge is too weak. It has the 500mb 5900DM contour EAST of Bermuda, when the data indicate it is over Bermuda. Heights are also higher over Florida than modeled by about 10DM

Could this lead to a slight west shift on the next run?


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[Steve]

UKMET is weird at times and other times is a leader model. I don't always follow it when it is an extreme outlier, but no one can forget the call that Ivan would come back all the way from the Delmarva Peninsula into the Gulf and landfall in the western Gulf. No way that was a blind squirrel run back in 2004. So it gets a pass from me. As for the European 12z today, I don't know.

2 weekends ago I suggested we may have to wait until this past weekend or even Monday or today to know what's going to happen. People were all over model X or model y, but this is a more complicated pattern and has not been easy for the models or the forecasters. Could even be tomorrow or Thursday before we really know. That's out there.

[ronjon]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783387761168490496

Well, at least the strongest winds stay offshore I suppose...

Those are knots! Multiple by 1.15 to mph.