ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-76&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

ir loop
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-75&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

[NDG]

Not sure why the NHC is so far offshore. Both the GFS AND ECM pretty much show a landfall near the cape and essentially riding the eye right along the coast to St Aug.

We know that the NHC like to see some consistency before making subtle change to its track, I would suspect that they will shift the track closer to the 0z Euro and 06z GFS on their 11 AM Advisory, IMO.

They didn't wait on Monday afternoon when they made the dramatic shift West

True, but they were just waiting for the GFS to go along with the Euro and UKMET which were already showing a west track.

[TheStormExpert]

If there is any good news it is that Matthew has weakened further to a minimal Major Hurricane with winds of 115mph @8am. The bad news is re-strengthening should be expected.

[DESTRUCTION5]

NNW motion has commenced @ 8am. All about the angle of pursuit now...

[SouthFLTropics]

This is as real as it gets ladies and gentlemen. Florida, as well as the CONUS, has not faced a threat from a storm like this in many years. We've been fortunate since Wilma but every now and then you've got to pay the piper. It's the price of living in Florida. My family is prepared as can be here in Port St. Lucie. This isn't our first rodeo and we've been through this drill many times before. Most shutters went up last night and only a few loose ends to wrap up today. Got gas at 5:30AM and the lines were 3 deep already. I'll post leading up to the storm for as long as possible. I'm debating leaving my weather station up. I want to see what kind of readings I get but at the same time I don't want to lose a $500 piece of equipment. I'll leave it up as long as possible. You can monitor it on Weather Underground. Station name is DarlingtonPSL. Wrap up preps today everyone and be safe!!!

[terstorm1012]

This forecasted loop that some models have is intriguing and concerning. I'm guessing the loop is due to missing the trough/much stronger ridge?
I've been telling people since last week we'll be dealing with Matthew through the upcoming long weekend. Looks true.

[NDG]

Matthew is definitely wasting no time to reorganize, a definite NNW heading has begun.

[Shuriken]

The 00Z and 06Z GFS both have Matthew doing a cyclonic loop off the southeast coast and coming back to hit south Florida a second time.

[MGC]

Advise from MGC....Back in august 28, 2005 I woke up Sunday morning to a Cat-5 Katrina headed my way. We decided to evacuate that morning and left shortly before the first feeder bands reached shore. I would advise that if you are living in low lying area get out today. If Matthew rides along the coast as predicted, the water will destroy all wood framed structures. Only concrete buildings will survive the surge and waves. Even if your place is elevated on stilts it will likely get destroyed by the waves on top of the surge. Plan to stay away for several days. The roads will be impassable by debris. I came home to a house blocking the street and had to walk to my house. Gasoline will be like gold, get plenty of it. Get plenty of cash money, with no power there will be no way to use your plastic. I was without power for 3 weeks and had no water for 2 months. Fill up the bathtub to flush the toilet. Buy a solar charger for your cell phone....if it works at all, we had no cell phone for about a week after Katrina. Worst case: be prepared to be back to the stone age for a while. If you stay home get a gun. Looting was a big problem My front door was kicked in by looters and I got robbed. I carried a gun with me for weeks after the hurricane. It was the wild west for a while after Katrina.....MGC

[JKingTampa]

I swear it just about looks like Matthew is going WNW already.

[RL3AO]

This forecasted loop that some models have is intriguing and concerning. I'm guessing the loop is due to missing the trough/much stronger ridge?
I've been telling people since last week we'll be dealing with Matthew through the upcoming long weekend. Looks true.

The trough near Seattle is now progged to be weaker and further north. The Euro (surprise!) was the first to start to see this a day or two ago.

[Blown Away]

Looks like Matt slightly SW and ahead of the 09z point...

[SouthFLTropics]

Folks under the hurricane warning in Florida need to complete their preparations TODAY, if they haven't done so already. Conditions will begin to deteriorate on Thursday and you do not want to be caught out unprepared as the winds and rain pick up. Remember, it is not necessary for the center of the storm to come ashore at your location for your area to experience hurricane conditions! Since the storm will be approaching at an angle almost parallel to the coastline, a large swath of FL could experience hurricane-force winds. Hurricane Matthew is, and will likely continue to be, a powerful hurricane at the time of its closest approach. Please take this seriously and listen to your local emergency management.

Im on the treasure coast. I plan on working for a few hours this morning then making the rounds to put up shutters for my family.

Be safe out there my friend...from one Treasure Coast forum member to another.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm surprised the NHC brought Matthew down to 100 knots. Dropsonde at 11:17 UTC showed 114 knots. I guess they think it's a gust or bad data. Regardless, don't become complacent about the current weakening as it's likely that trend will reverse and may already be reversing based on IR.

[Shuriken]

Matthew is definitely wasting no time to reorganize, a definite NNW heading has begun.

That is some nice imagery; could you share the URL for the source?

[SouthFLTropics]

NNW motion has commenced @ 8am. All about the angle of pursuit now...

Yep, angle of approach means everything. I fear we're in for a heckuva a ride up here on the Treasure Coast.

[Jevo]

If there is any good news it is that Matthew has weakened further to a minimal Major Hurricane with winds of 115mph @8am. The bad news is re-strengthening should be expected.

minimal major is the new jumbo shrimp

[SFLcane]

Hi folks! All ready here in Miami made a 8 car line this morning to fuel my car. Iam still wondering why dade is not included in the H warning? This is such a dangerous storm coming so close to SFL any wobble could put very bad wx over the area. Iam thinking it should come later today possibly.

[abajan]

This forecasted loop that some models have is intriguing and concerning. I'm guessing the loop is due to missing the trough/much stronger ridge?
I've been telling people since last week we'll be dealing with Matthew through the upcoming long weekend. Looks true.

Levi Cowan states in his latest video that if Matthew loops, it will likely be much weaker by the time it's heading back to Florida:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzldmkpwjZY (Fast forward to 12:47)

[SeGaBob]

Doesn't seem as bad for GA anymore...