ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

My stepmother trekked to Winn Dixie here in Port Saint Lucie and they were completely out of water and many non-perishables were running low. She came home with Bagel Thins - the only bread she could find.

Walgreens in palm city just got a delivery of water. Not sure how long it will last but its not far from you.

Walgreens on Kanner and Salerno has a ton too. Was just there.

Also 7-11 on 714 and high meadows in palm city still has gas.

[abajan]

My stepmother trekked to Winn Dixie here in Port Saint Lucie and they were completely out of water and many non-perishables were running low. She came home with Bagel Thins - the only bread she could find.

Walgreens in palm city just got a delivery of water. Not sure how long it will last but its not far from you.

To avoid people traveling miles to a store, only to discover that they're out of stock of a particular item, the store's webpage should update what's in stock in real-time. For instance, as soon as someone pays for a particular brand of bottled water at the checkout, the available number of that item in stock shown on the webpage should decrease by one.

[FLpanhandle91]

I'll go with 135-150 kt once it reorganizes and that eyewall completely closes. It's gonna be like Katrina but coming to Florida instead.

Seriously..leave the forecasting to the experts. People are frightened enough without you hyping a serious situation even worse.

It's a discussion forum... the disclaimer rule no longer exists. It's a very reasonable estimate on intensity in my opinion.

[MaineWeatherNut]

I'll go with 135-150 kt once it reorganizes and that eyewall completely closes. It's gonna be like Katrina but coming to Florida instead.

Seriously..leave the forecasting to the experts. People are frightened enough without you hyping a serious situation even worse.

Personally I don't think there is any hyping there... Conditions are almost perfect for it to rapidly strengthen. If it rapidly strengthened with 20kts of shear over it just think what it will do with almost perfect conditions. People need to realize this and prepare accordingly.

[jhpigott]

. . . and here he comes. Long range radar view out of Miami. This will be a good one to watch the next 24-48 hours

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... X&loop=yes

[ronyan]

The western side has built up a good amount of deep convection which will be attempting to wrap around soon.

[GCANE]

Off-the-scale Rain Rate eyewall cell about 6 hrs ago.
Explains the high core temp.

[Scorpion]

I'll go with 135-150 kt once it reorganizes and that eyewall completely closes. It's gonna be like Katrina but coming to Florida instead.

Seriously..leave the forecasting to the experts. People are frightened enough without you hyping a serious situation even worse.

It certainly has all the potential. Don't think it will hit with that power probably a 110-115 kt landfall if it hits land.

[GCANE]

Nice Cu Nims popping up on the northern eyewall.
Given the thermodynamically unstable air and ideal upper-level conditions, Matthew should easily ramp up today.

[Patrick99]

Hi folks! All ready here in Miami made a 8 car line this morning to fuel my car. Iam still wondering why dade is not included in the H warning? This is such a dangerous storm coming so close to SFL any wobble could put very bad wx over the area. Iam thinking it should come later today possibly.

I don't know if it will. Unless something changes with the track, they probably don't think Dade will see hurricane conditions. I agree. "In my opinion" it would require more-significant jogs to the west for the southern half of the tri-county area to get hurricane conditions.

[Portastorm]

I'll go with 135-150 kt once it reorganizes and that eyewall completely closes. It's gonna be like Katrina but coming to Florida instead.

Seriously..leave the forecasting to the experts. People are frightened enough without you hyping a serious situation even worse.

It certainly has all the potential. Don't think it will hit with that power probably a 110-115 kt landfall if it hits land.

Okay folks, let's take a deep breath and calm down. We have a long way to go on this one and mutual respect on this forum is encouraged. If you think someone has "crossed the line" - then flag the post and we will investigate. I don't see a problem with the post from Scorpion.

[ava_ati]

On the radio this morning they said it slowed down, now scheduled to be off the Jacksonville coast Friday night. What does a slower system's track do, do you suppose? Or are they misinformed?

[northjaxpro]

Seriously..leave the forecasting to the experts. People are frightened enough without you hyping a serious situation even worse.

It certainly has all the potential. Don't think it will hit with that power probably a 110-115 kt landfall if it hits land.

Okay folks, let's take a deep breath and calm down. We have a long way to go on this one and mutual respect on this forum is encouraged. If you think someone has "crossed the line" - then flag the post and we will investigate. I don't see a problem with the post from Scorpion.

Yeah I agree. I thought Scorpion" s post wast fine. This is a discussion forum and what he said is very within reason. I am expecting Matthew to strengthen to near or at Cat. 5 strength in the next 24 hours.

We are are all on edge, including yours truly down here. We will all be just fine as we watch Matthew' approach to Florida.

Tying to make a decision to either ride it out here at home or move farther inland. Considering the evacuations pending, it probably will be smart to ride this out. It will be rough that is for sure, but I am about 25 miles inland from the coast. Based on the projected track, the inner core is hoing to get close enough, if not make landfall her on Friday and definitely will givebus winnds of hurricane strength. Tough call to ridebit out or keave folks!!.

[bqknight]

Publix in the downtown area of Orlando were out of everything except Evian. Publix is meant to be restocking all day today though.

[O Town]

Publix in the downtown area of Orlando were out of everything except Evian. Publix is meant to be restocking all day today though.

lol, wow. Winter Park had plenty last night, although bread supply was nil. Grabbed a few things last night.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

On the radio this morning they said it slowed down, now scheduled to be off the Jacksonville coast Friday night. What does a slower system's track do, do you suppose? Or are they misinformed?

To me, it looks like the slow down starts to occur about hour 36, and brings it up the coast of Florida much slower. This is what is going to cause it to get caught under the building high out of the west and do the loop.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Matthew begins his assault on the Bahamas

Hurricane Warnings are issued for the FL east coast from N of Golden Beach to Sabastian Inlet including West Palm Beach and the Space Coast

Hurricane Watch is extended N for the FL E coast from Sebastian Inlet to the Florida/Georgia border including Jacksonville and Orlando

Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the Florida Keys to Florida Bay including Miami-Dade.

Preparations for the landfall of a major hurricane should be rushed to completion in the hurricane warning area.

Discussion:
Matthew has moved off the northern coast of eastern Cuba this morning and into the southern Bahamas. Latest USAF mission found a central pressure of 962mb and flight level winds around 118kts indicating the high mountains of eastern Cuba were able to disrupt the inner core of the hurricane. Maximum sustained winds have been reduced to 125mph making Matthew a strong category 3 hurricane. Additionally, IR images now longer show a defined eye and deep convection until recently was moderate. Recent satellite trends are starting to show the formation of deep thunderstorms over the NW/W portion of the center of circulation and an eye feature is starting to return.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will overspread much of the Bahamas today and approach SE FL on Thursday.

Track:
Matthew is either going to brush very close to the eastern FL coast or make a direct landfall on Friday. Forecast models overnight remain similar in their track of Matthew turning NW today and crossing the Bahamas and then moving nearly parallel to the entire eastern coast of FL Friday into Saturday. Several of the models and ensemble members have the center actually crossing the coast or moving right along the beaches or just a few tens of miles offshore…all of which will result in the core of Matthew impacting a large section of the FL east coast. While it is certainly possible that Matthew remains just offshore…the hurricane force wind radius on the western side of the storm is likely to bring hurricane conditions to the coast. Residents in the hurricane watch and warning area should be preparing for a direct impact of the core of this hurricane.

The extended portion of the forecast track is showing some significant changes overnight. The trough over the Midwest currently was expected to be strong enough to capture Matthew and bring the hurricane N and NNE into the Carolinas coast and then NE off the NE US coast early next week. The latest global runs now show the trough not being able to capture Matthew and instead leave the hurricane behind to perform a large loop over the Atlantic off the SE US coast and a possible second threat/landfall to the Bahamas or FL. This latest change in the track reasoning may end up sparing a direct landfall over NC, but also means portions of the SE US coast will still be dealing with Matthew next week as its path is effectively blocked by building high pressure over the NE US behind the trough

Needless to say the forecast track beyond early Saturday morning is of low confidence and it is difficult at this time to determine what impacts Matthew will have on the coast of SC and NC.

Intensity:
Conditions over the Bahamas look favorable for intensification of Matthew and the current NHC forecast brings the hurricane to 130mph in 24 hours. It is possible that Matthew could be stronger than currently indicated given low shear and very warm waters and the history of hurricanes intensifying in the Bahamas. Matthew will approach the FL east coast as a major hurricane cat 3 or 4 and it is now very likely that the core of damaging winds with Matthew will impact the highly populated hurricane warning area.

Toward the day 3-5 period upper level winds will become increasingly stronger out of the SW and likely begin to result in some weakening…but Matthew will remain a hurricane through the next 5 days.

Impacts:
Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are likely over SE/E FL starting Thursday from the FL Keys northward to the Space coast. Damaging hurricane conditions are likely Thursday night and Friday from West Palm Beach northward to Jacksonville. Sustained winds of 80-100mph will be possible along the coast and if Matthew tracks only 10-20 miles further west sustained winds of 115-125mph will be possible. Significant to extensive damage is likely if the core of Matthew intersects the coast especially near Cape Canaveral.

Much of the eastern shore of FL is lined with a barrier island which has been highly developed in the last many years…but acts as a natural hurricane defense to the mainland. Storm surge and wave action will be directed into this barrier island with current storm surge inundation above ground level of 3-5 feet in the hurricane warning area with wave action of 10-15 feet. This will result in extensive damage to the Atlantic facing beaches, overtopping and breaching of dunes, and the likely undermining of beach front structures to the point of collapse. The coastal shelf off the FL east coast is fairly deep which results in generally lower storm surges compared to portions of the Gulf coast…however the concave shape of the NE FL and GA coast will result in significant storm surge flooding in the Jacksonville and potentially the Savannah areas even if Matthew remains off the coast

Rainfall amounts of 6-10 inches will be likely along the coast of FL and GA possibly into SC.

Actions:
Mandatory evacuations have been ordered along portions of the FL east coast overnight and this morning…mainly for the barrier islands and the inlet areas which connect the Atlantic to the FL mainland.

The state of SC will begin a mandatory evacuation of the entire SC coast effective at 300pm today including Charleston and Myrtle Beach. SC DOT will activate freeway lane reversal (contraflow) and all outbound major freeways lanes

[sponger]

It certainly has all the potential. Don't think it will hit with that power probably a 110-115 kt landfall if it hits land.

Okay folks, let's take a deep breath and calm down. We have a long way to go on this one and mutual respect on this forum is encouraged. If you think someone has "crossed the line" - then flag the post and we will investigate. I don't see a problem with the post from Scorpion.

Yeah I agree. I thought Scorpion" s post wast fine. This is a discussion forum and what he said is very within reason. I am expecting Matthew to strengthen to near or at Cat. 5 strength in the next 24 hours.

We are are all on edge, including yours truly down here. We will all be just fine as we watch Matthew' approach to Florida.

Tying to make a decision to either ride it out here at home or move farther inland. Considering the evacuations pending, it probably will be smart to ride this out. It will be rough that is for sure, but I am about 25 miles inland from the coast. Based on the projected track, the inner core is hoing to get close enough, if not make landfall her on Friday and definitely will givebus winnds of hurricane strength. Tough call to ridebit out or keave folks!!.

Yep same boat here in St Augustine. Evacuation is horrible so we will risk that eye making ashore AND a stronger hurricane. If both of those come to pass, rough day indeed. But if it stays offshore, 50-60 mph can be quite enjoyable for a weather nut.

[bqknight]

Publix in the downtown area of Orlando were out of everything except Evian. Publix is meant to be restocking all day today though.

lol, wow. Winter Park had plenty last night, although bread supply was nil. Grabbed a few things last night.

SPAM was also in short supply.

[xironman]

Matt is coming out of this with a much larger wind field, may slow down the intensification, but is not going to help the surge.