ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Ken711]

These models are useless at this time...they are only helpful in the tropics. The only one worth looking at is TVCN and maybe the UK ones.

Which color on the chart is the TVCN track?

http://i.imgur.com/44ieozS.png

Thanks

[wxman57]

The trend is definitely a bit farther offshore Florida and farther, still, offshore the Carolinas.

[ConvergenceZone]

Based upon how the current NHC track is barely on shore, I wouldn't be that surprised if this stays out to sea. One right shift will probably do it

[StormingB81]

Everything I have seen is west. where is this east coming from? Euro was even more west from earlier

[WPBWeather]

Same here. Not sure where the other info is coming from.

[HurrMark]

The trend is definitely a bit farther offshore Florida and farther, still, offshore the Carolinas.

I thought you don't trust this model suite

[adam0983]

Everything is going west I'm not buying the eastern tracks. Stop saying it is going east people will not take this seriously.

[bg1]

The trend is definitely a bit farther offshore Florida and farther, still, offshore the Carolinas.

Trying to catch up with all this. What has caused the east shift?

[WPBWeather]

The trend is definitely a bit farther offshore Florida and farther, still, offshore the Carolinas.

Trying to catch up with all this. What has caused the east shift?

Some well informed speculation. Just as many say otherwise.

[Hamanard]

East shift relative to what? Canada? I'm seeing west shift closer to the southeastern United States.

[wxmann_91]

The trend is definitely a bit farther offshore Florida and farther, still, offshore the Carolinas.

Trying to catch up with all this. What has caused the east shift?

Not sure about FL but for the Carolinas, the models are trending towards the Euro's solution of a flatter trof, and thus a sharper recurve - sharper than the angle of the SE coastline, which allows Matthew to avoid the Carolinas.

[HurrMark]

Most of these are bogus tracks....they are useful in the deep tropics, not in the subtropics. The trends of reliable models has generally been west. Not all make landfall, but there has been a distinctive trend.

However, I do agree that the threat to NC...esp the Outer Banks... is probably diminished, and that is reflected here

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The trend is definitely a bit farther offshore Florida and farther, still, offshore the Carolinas.

The GFS and Euro are both west. How do you get that the trend is further east?

[Aric Dunn]

Same here. Not sure where the other info is coming from.

yes it has been west ...pretty sure he mis-typed lol

[ConvergenceZone]

The trend is definitely a bit farther offshore Florida and farther, still, offshore the Carolinas.

Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised if I wake up tomorrow with the models and NHC forecasts taking this completely out to sea. We will see if the Eastward trend continues overnight. But it's nice for a change to have some good news!

Edit: I think we all no the last EURO was a bogus run. I bet it will trend quite a bit East tonight

[SouthDadeFish]

The trend is definitely a bit farther offshore Florida and farther, still, offshore the Carolinas.

Which model(s) are you referring to? The TVCN has trended west recently, toward FL:



Image taken from Dr. Brian Tang's site: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al142016/

[WeatherHoon]

Wait..I'm confused. I thought all the good models the past 24 hours showed a westward trend into Florida. Did something change? I hope so!

[Aric Dunn]

The trend is definitely a bit farther offshore Florida and farther, still, offshore the Carolinas.

Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised if I wake up tomorrow with the models and NHC forecasts taking this completely out to sea. We will see if the Eastward trend continues overnight. But it's nice for a change to have some good news!

there has been no eastward trend lol..

[wxman57]

Everything I have seen is west. where is this east coming from? Euro was even more west from earlier

You're not looking at the right models. Euro operational was west, but most of the ensembles are east of the operational run. 18Z GFS was farther east. HWRF was east. GFDL, NAVGEM, NAM, and Canadian are not very good as tropical models.

[WPBWeather]

Everything I have seen is west. where is this east coming from? Euro was even more west from earlier

You're not looking at the right models. Euro operational was west, but most of the ensembles are east of the operational run. 18Z GFS was farther east. HWRF was east. GFDL, NAVGEM, NAM, and Canadian are not very good as tropical models.

I really hope you are correct--along with a few million others. But just in case, I'll get some more ice tonight.