ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Everything I have seen is west. where is this east coming from? Euro was even more west from earlier

You're not looking at the right models. Euro operational was west, but most of the ensembles are east of the operational run. 18Z GFS was farther east. HWRF was east. GFDL, NAVGEM, NAM, and Canadian are not very good as tropical models.

18z GFS was west of 12z off Florida.

[adam0983]

Been really well with Matthew so far. In 2004 the Nogaps nailed Jeanne and frances.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The trend is definitely a bit farther offshore Florida and farther, still, offshore the Carolinas.

Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised if I wake up tomorrow with the models and NHC forecasts taking this completely out to sea. We will see if the Eastward trend continues overnight. But it's nice for a change to have some good news!

there has been no eastward trend lol..

This is obvious. Every single model has been trending west

[PTrackerLA]

Such a fine line between a major coming onshore vs only tropical storm conditions experienced anywhere along the US coast. Stressful times ahead!

[JaxGator]

Everything I have seen is west. where is this east coming from? Euro was even more west from earlier

You're not looking at the right models. Euro operational was west, but most of the ensembles are east of the operational run. 18Z GFS was farther east. HWRF was east. GFDL, NAVGEM, NAM, and Canadian are not very good as tropical models.

However, they are still close enough off or on Florida to cause impacts. What are your thoughts on the Euro high chance impact members that Michael Ventrice posted? After they showed the chances of Matthew hitting the coast yesterday, the Euro was a similar copy a day later. Just a question.

[HurrMark]

Everything I have seen is west. where is this east coming from? Euro was even more west from earlier

You're not looking at the right models. Euro operational was west, but most of the ensembles are east of the operational run. 18Z GFS was farther east. HWRF was east. GFDL, NAVGEM, NAM, and Canadian are not very good as tropical models.

I respecfully disagree. The GFS, for instance, has more members with FL hits at 18z than 12z. HWRF was closer to FL (although yes, further off Carolina)

[WeatherEmperor]

Everything I have seen is west. where is this east coming from? Euro was even more west from earlier

You're not looking at the right models. Euro operational was west, but most of the ensembles are east of the operational run. 18Z GFS was farther east. HWRF was east. GFDL, NAVGEM, NAM, and Canadian are not very good as tropical models.

You are really confusing me. I went to tropicaltidbits.com and zoomed in on the 18z Gfs and Hwrf. If i click on the previous runs I can see an ever so slight westward shift at 18z compared to 12z. Even the multi model consensus Tvcn moved ever so slightly west. How are you seeing east shifts??

Its worth noting I am talking about Florida specifically


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[Ken711]

The trend is definitely a bit farther offshore Florida and farther, still, offshore the Carolinas.

Hope it continues wxman57.

[JaxGator]

Alex Lamers ‏@AlexJLamers · 1h1 hour ago

Consensus track for #Matthew has crept west (1st image). As a result, impact to SE US coast more likely per GEFS and ECMWF ensembles.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct9ypXCUsAAGlWB.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct9yrFAVMAAgRn7.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct9yyGOUsAA9XdO.jpg

[WPBWeather]

The trend is definitely a bit farther offshore Florida and farther, still, offshore the Carolinas.

Hope it continues wxman57.

Not sure it even started, but we'll all know soon enough.

[boulderrr]

I stated that models have trended east in the long term "for the Carolinas and beyond".

18Z GFS is further east than the 12Z GFS, which is further east than the 6Z GFS for NC and beyond.
18Z GFS ensembles are further east than 12Z GFS ensembles, which are further east than the 6Z GFS ensembles for NC and beyond.
00Z TVCN is further east than the 18Z TVCN, which is further east than the 12Z TVCN for NC and beyond.
NHC 5PM EDT forecast is east of 11AM EDT forecast for NC and beyond.

[HurrMark]

I am guessing 57 is referring to the East Coast as a whole. If so, then yes, the odds of a landfall may have dropped a bit, mainly because NC's odds dropped quite a bit...and north of NC substantially

However, this had been counterbalanced with FL, which has seen a notable increase in odds

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Everything I have seen is west. where is this east coming from? Euro was even more west from earlier

You're not looking at the right models. Euro operational was west, but most of the ensembles are east of the operational run. 18Z GFS was farther east. HWRF was east. GFDL, NAVGEM, NAM, and Canadian are not very good as tropical models.

You are really confusing me. I went to tropicaltidbits.com and zoomed in on the 18z Gfs and Hwrf. If i click on the previous runs I can see an ever so slight westward shift at 18z compared to 12z. Even the multi model consensus Tvcn moved ever so slightly west. How are you seeing east shifts??

Its worth noting I am talking about Florida specifically

I do run to run comparisons on every single model and none have shift
Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

I do run to run comparisons of every model and none have shifted east as the new NHC cone will demonstrate with a west shift IMO this is dangerous misinformation.

[WeatherHoon]

I stated that models have trended east in the long term "for the Carolinas and beyond".

18Z GFS is further east than the 12Z GFS, which is further east than the 6Z GFS for NC and beyond.
18Z GFS ensembles are further east than 12Z GFS ensembles, which are further east than the 6Z GFS ensembles for NC and beyond.
00Z TVCN is further east than the 18Z TVCN, which is further east than the 12Z TVCN for NC and beyond.
NHC 5PM EDT forecast is east of 11AM EDT forecast for NC and beyond.

OK. This clears everything up.

[ronjon]

The trend is definitely a bit farther offshore Florida and farther, still, offshore the Carolinas.

Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised if I wake up tomorrow with the models and NHC forecasts taking this completely out to sea. We will see if the Eastward trend continues overnight. But it's nice for a change to have some good news!

Edit: I think we all no the last EURO was a bogus run. I bet it will trend quite a bit East tonight

I don't see any data or evidence to support this claim. Both 12z ECM and 18z GFS are at their closest approaches to florida coast of any previous run. In fact, the Euro makes landfall near Jupiter. The only model that stays offshore now is the eastern outlier HWRF but even it's 18z run trended west from 12z. UKMET is very similar to Euro. The 3 best models all either landfall or very close to shore.

[caneman]

Wxmn57, I usually always agree with your analysis but just a few days ago your were confidant it wouldnt come anywhere near the east coast of florida. You almost were giving an all clear. At least I took it that way. It in fact got modeled alot closer than you suggested. Where are you seeing an east trend is beyond me. It's far to close a call with model spread to suggest you know it will miss or imply such a thing. With all due respect to you.

[adam0983]

Florida is ground zero right now maybe waxman meant Carolinas or New York but we should focus on Florida since they are the closest to the storm.

[dukeblue219]

I stated that models have trended east in the long term "for the Carolinas and beyond".

18Z GFS is further east than the 12Z GFS, which is further east than the 6Z GFS for NC and beyond.
18Z GFS ensembles are further east than 12Z GFS ensembles, which are further east than the 6Z GFS ensembles for NC and beyond.
00Z TVCN is further east than the 18Z TVCN, which is further east than the 12Z TVCN for NC and beyond.
NHC 5PM EDT forecast is east of 11AM EDT forecast for NC and beyond.

I would still say there's a big difference between "the carolinas and beyond" and "NC and beyond". I would be very hesistant to (accidentally) suggest the models are trending east in any significant way off the SC coast. The GEFS mean has consistently centered the system just off the SC coast on Saturday morning. Without specifics, a general statement of models moving east is very dangerous IMO.

[tolakram]

This comes to an end now. You can respectfully question a promet or another user but we must avoid insulting or calling anyone else names. I suggest everyone sit on their hands until 11:25 when the 12Z GFS starts.

* cleaned up wording *

---

Red line. Yea, makes it official!

[SFLcane]

Cone shifted west bit