ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneFrances04]

I wonder if the storms popping up near Andros Island is a clue of things to come.

[O Town]

Latest 24 hr microwave, through 8:45 this morning.

[Psyclonic]

Yeah I agree. I thought Scorpion" s post wast fine. This is a discussion forum and what he said is very within reason. I am expecting Matthew to strengthen to near or at Cat. 5 strength in the next 24 hours.

We are are all on edge, including yours truly down here. We will all be just fine as we watch Matthew' approach to Florida.

Tying to make a decision to either ride it out here at home or move farther inland. Considering the evacuations pending, it probably will be smart to ride this out. It will be rough that is for sure, but I am about 25 miles inland from the coast. Based on the projected track, the inner core is hoing to get close enough, if not make landfall her on Friday and definitely will givebus winnds of hurricane strength. Tough call to ridebit out or keave folks!!.

Yep same boat here in St Augustine. Evacuation is horrible so we will risk that eye making ashore AND a stronger hurricane. If both of those come to pass, rough day indeed. But if it stays offshore, 50-60 mph can be quite enjoyable for a weather nut.

Agreed, wouldn't evacuate unless I lived in a mobile home. The expense, the traffic, worrying about running out of gas, bringing supplies. Plus it is so hard to drive on debris strewn roadway.

We're in a mobile home in Middleburg (south of Jax), about 35 miles inland. Choosing to ride it out here instead of a house next door that has huge trees right above the roof. My sister is evacuating to here from her house in Vilano Beach that's right on Coastal Highway. We were in Homestead for Andrew, so my storm PTSD has kicked in Don't really have a choice in many ways, we have livestock and can't chance not getting back into the area after. Just hoping we are far enough inland.

[northjaxpro]

I'm actually surprised at how quickly the core of Matthew has recovered. I thought some downsloping air from Cuba on the S side would have kept it at bay for another 12 to 18 hours.

I'm surprised as well. Not a good sign for Bahamas and Florida. This should have no trouble ramping up today.

Yes I agree. The eye is almost about to clear out again. Matthew continues to be a an extremely impressive and dangerous tropical cyclone!! He will only continue to expand in size too as time progresses.

[sponger]

Pouring again here in North Florida. Already saturated.

[floridasun78]

i talk to miami weather office their now looking to see if Matthew will take southern track not go trough central Bahama stay bit south Bahama chain

[tolakram]

Latest, with track

[GCANE]

Maintaining 8C core temp - should be an eye popping experience just about any time.

I know I said this earlier but wasn't sure if you saw it. Is the theta-e ridge you observed yesterday still there?

It is not there this morning, but could likely appear this afternoon.

Adabatic heating by the sun of the mid-level water in the air will likely cause it to show up then.

Right now, there is a 4000 CAPE ridge that is closer to Matthew relative to yesterday's 5000 CAPE ridge.

[AutoPenalti]

Maintaining 8C core temp - should be an eye popping experience just about any time.

I know I said this earlier but wasn't sure if you saw it. Is the theta-e ridge you observed yesterday still there?

It is not there this morning, but could likely appear this afternoon.

Adabatic heating by the sun of the mid-level water in the air will likely cause it to show up then.

Right now, there is a 4000 CAPE ridge that is closer to Matthew relative to yesterday's 5000 CAPE ridge.

What does this mean exactly?

[jlauderdal]

What the heck is wrong with the Governor today? He can't speak today. All kinds of tounge tied! Never seen him like this. lol

rick scott on a good day os poor orator...at any rate, good to see him.out with the peeps rallying the troops..he can call jeb if he needs assistance...jeb was excellent in canes, also fluent in espanol...fll in full.prep mode..the sound of drills and clanking panels...reminds me of floyd...wilma surprised some people so not a big showing for that...nature giving us the beautiful weather day to prepare as usual before a big system

[Rail Dawg]

I know I said this earlier but wasn't sure if you saw it. Is the theta-e ridge you observed yesterday still there?

It is not there this morning, but could likely appear this afternoon.

Adabatic heating by the sun of the mid-level water in the air will likely cause it to show up then.

Right now, there is a 4000 CAPE ridge that is closer to Matthew relative to yesterday's 5000 CAPE ridge.

What does this mean exactly?

CAPE: Convective Available Potential Energy

Think of it as a keg of dynamite.

[La Sirena]

Is it just me or does Matthew appear south of his anticipated track? Just asking for clarity

[AutoPenalti]

It is not there this morning, but could likely appear this afternoon.

Adabatic heating by the sun of the mid-level water in the air will likely cause it to show up then.

Right now, there is a 4000 CAPE ridge that is closer to Matthew relative to yesterday's 5000 CAPE ridge.

What does this mean exactly?

CAPE: Convective Available Potential Energy

Think of it as a keg of dynamite.

Oh got it, thanks! I'm learning a lot from you lol.

[jlauderdal]

I know I said this earlier but wasn't sure if you saw it. Is the theta-e ridge you observed yesterday still there?

It is not there this morning, but could likely appear this afternoon.

Adabatic heating by the sun of the mid-level water in the air will likely cause it to show up then.

Right now, there is a 4000 CAPE ridge that is closer to Matthew relative to yesterday's 5000 CAPE ridge.

What does this mean exactly?

higher cape is better lift and thus more conducive for development..4000 cape isnt going to slow intensification...5000 is really high...these high numbers are typical in big tropical systems

[windnrain]

For those who reddit, /r/tropicalweather has a live post and chat going. I've been following pretty closely for updates and stuff.

[bjm519209]

Is it just me or does Matthew appear south of his anticipated track? Just asking for clarity

Let me start with i am only a reader on this forum don't really say much only do this for a hobby. That being said yes it does look that way to me just looking at radar loop and comparing were the eye is to where NHC says it should be.

[FLLurker32]

Latest 24 hr microwave, through 8:45 this morning.

That looked like a really hard turn left at the end there.

[HurricaneEric]

Is it just me or does Matthew appear south of his anticipated track? Just asking for clarity

tolakram, just posted a graphic a few posts up. Looks to be on par with the cone so far.

[floridasun78]

Is it just me or does Matthew appear south of his anticipated track? Just asking for clarity

yes that post few post up don't look going southern tip Bahama chain

[marionstorm]

Is it just me or does Matthew appear south of his anticipated track? Just asking for clarity

That is my impression too looking at Cuban radar and the rapid ir loop.