ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Coming back late last night from Key Largo, stopped at 3 gas stations in Florida City closed and out of gas.

[windnrain]

Starting to really be able to see the westward/Northwest motion on MIMIC

[AdamFirst]

Went to Publix to buy some creature comforts - sodas, snacks. Took the last of their bread - various forms of potato rolls,

[GCANE]

I know I said this earlier but wasn't sure if you saw it. Is the theta-e ridge you observed yesterday still there?

It is not there this morning, but could likely appear this afternoon.

Adabatic heating by the sun of the mid-level water in the air will likely cause it to show up then.

Right now, there is a 4000 CAPE ridge that is closer to Matthew relative to yesterday's 5000 CAPE ridge.

What does this mean exactly?

A lot of energy in the air to feed convection.

A generally good indication is just to look at WV.

Lots of light gray indicates a favorable environment for intensification.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

How favorable that is can then be determined more by Theta-E, CAPE, LI etc.

Its kinda like a score.

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks to be 960 mb as per recon

[WeatherEmperor]

Is it just me or does Matthew appear south of his anticipated track? Just asking for clarity

tolakram, just posted a graphic a few posts up. Looks to be on par with the cone so far.

I am glad Mark posted that graphic. What frustrates me is that everybody looks at the same satellite and graphical images but come to completely different conclusions so when I saw the post about Matthew being SW of the track I was like oooooh boy here we go...only to see a few posts later that it really is on the forecast track and NOT further SW. This is why sometimes I have to analyze the models/graphics on my own before reading some of these posts. Very damn irritating I tell you...


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[chaser1]

Yep same boat here in St Augustine. Evacuation is horrible so we will risk that eye making ashore AND a stronger hurricane. If both of those come to pass, rough day indeed. But if it stays offshore, 50-60 mph can be quite enjoyable for a weather nut.

Agreed, wouldn't evacuate unless I lived in a mobile home. The expense, the traffic, worrying about running out of gas, bringing supplies. Plus it is so hard to drive on debris strewn roadway.

We're in a mobile home in Middleburg (south of Jax), about 35 miles inland. Choosing to ride it out here instead of a house next door that has huge trees right above the roof. My sister is evacuating to here from her house in Vilano Beach that's right on Coastal Highway. We were in Homestead for Andrew, so my storm PTSD has kicked in Don't really have a choice in many ways, we have livestock and can't chance not getting back into the area after. Just hoping we are far enough inland.

Sounds like it would be far more convenient to stay. Question, who feeds the livestock if you die? Solution: 6 or so hours before the core of the storm appears to come close to a landfall near Jax, why not take a leisurely dinner out at perhaps Cracker Barrel (any particular one assuming its 30-60 miles west of you. Just in case, Denny's will do as well. Afterwards, come on home like nothing every happened. If your trailer is fine, no harm - no foul. If your trailer is wrecked - you'll still be around to feed the livestock. Of course, if the storm appears that it will pass well east of Jax., then perhaps you'll all be fine. Personally, any trailer closer than 75 miles from the eye of a hurricane... is just too close. By the way, I chase hurricanes but that doesn't make me a risk-taker as long as I'm in control of the structure that I"m at/in. You wouldn't fly in an airplane without wings would you? Please take the necessary precautions and not put yourselves in harms way. Besides, the anxiety just isn't worth it.

[tolakram]

I hope everyone in the path of Matthew stays safe!

If you are wobble watching wondering if you should do anything in preparation for the storm the answer is YES. Storms don't follow track lines, they wobble, which is why a track so close to the coast is a big deal! I know I'm preaching to the choir for a lot of folks but just in case, stay safe!

[La Sirena]

Is it just me or does Matthew appear south of his anticipated track? Just asking for clarity

tolakram, just posted a graphic a few posts up. Looks to be on par with the cone so far.

I am glad Mark posted that graphic. What frustrates me is that everybody looks at the same satellite and graphical images but come to completely different conclusions so when I saw the post about Matthew being SW of the track I was like oooooh boy here we go...only to see a few posts later that it really is on the forecast track and NOT further SW. This is why sometimes I have to analyze the models/graphics on my own before reading some of these posts. Very damn irritating I tell you...


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Sorry if I irritated you! Just asked for clarification. Someone brought the graphic to my attention which was very helpful. I can see that clearly now.

I'll refrain from commenting so that the experts can better utilize the forum.

[Orlando]

I haven't read every page of this thread, but would like to know if you all were in Orlando, would you evacuate?

Also, are the people in Orlando putting up plywood on the windows? Are there other ways to secure the windows besides plywood or shutters?

This forum is always so helpful. This is my first major hurricane to go through.

[ZX12R]

Starting to really be able to see the westward/Northwest motion on MIMIC

Also looks like Mathew is restructuring himself very nicely, and pretty quickly.

[northjaxpro]

Recon finds 960 mb, a drop of 4 mb in the past 3 hours. This is a sign of intensiification. A very ominous sign indeed and unfortunately one not surprising given the very favorable conditons in the Bahamas right now. Matt is flexibg his muscles once again unfortunately, which is just terrible for us all here in Florida.

[northjaxpro]

Also the eye will be clearing out very shortly.

[MGC]

30 mile wide eye per recon....looking at the IR loop it appears that convection in the northern eyewall is starting to wrap. Hurricane should slowly organize today. Needs to get further away from Cuba for significant intensification.....MGC

[Psyclonic]

Agreed, wouldn't evacuate unless I lived in a mobile home. The expense, the traffic, worrying about running out of gas, bringing supplies. Plus it is so hard to drive on debris strewn roadway.

We're in a mobile home in Middleburg (south of Jax), about 35 miles inland. Choosing to ride it out here instead of a house next door that has huge trees right above the roof. My sister is evacuating to here from her house in Vilano Beach that's right on Coastal Highway. We were in Homestead for Andrew, so my storm PTSD has kicked in Don't really have a choice in many ways, we have livestock and can't chance not getting back into the area after. Just hoping we are far enough inland.

Sounds like it would be far more convenient to stay. Question, who feeds the livestock if you die? Solution: 6 or so hours before the core of the storm appears to come close to a landfall near Jax, why not take a leisurely dinner out at perhaps Cracker Barrel (any particular one assuming its 30-60 miles west of you. Just in case, Denny's will do as well. Afterwards, come on home like nothing every happened. If your trailer is fine, no harm - no foul. If your trailer is wrecked - you'll still be around to feed the livestock. Of course, if the storm appears that it will pass well east of Jax., then perhaps you'll all be fine. Personally, any trailer closer than 75 miles from the eye of a hurricane... is just too close. By the way, I chase hurricanes but that doesn't make me a risk-taker as long as I'm in control of the structure that I"m at/in. You wouldn't fly in an airplane without wings would you? Please take the necessary precautions and not put yourselves in harms way. Besides, the anxiety just isn't worth it.

Don't know if you saw the part about having been in Andrew in Homestead. Spent that one in a bathtub with my toddlers. Eye passed directly over us. The stories I could tell, like you've never experienced a hurricane unless you've had avocados from the grove across the street hitting the house by the hundreds at 160 mph. I'm well aware of the risks and possibilities, probably way more so than many.

[HurrMark]

Yeah, definitely signs of intensification. Eye is starting to clear out.

[xironman]

Recon finds 960 mb, a drop of 4 mb in the past 3 hours. This is a sign of intenisification. A very ominous sign indeed and unfortunately one not surprising given the very favorable conditons in the Bahamas right now.

Which plane was that?

[RL3AO]

I haven't read every page of this thread, but would like to know if you all were in Orlando, would you evacuate?

Also, are the people in Orlando putting up plywood on the windows? Are there other ways to secure the windows besides plywood or shutters?

This forum is always so helpful. This is my first major hurricane to go through.

No. Must evacs are for storm surge near the coast.

[tolakram]

latest

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/783668120367935488