ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[otowntiger]

Track is definitely looking more and more ominous, but it also looks like the GFS has weakened it a lot. It's showing 992mb right? That would equate to cat 1. But I do realize intensity forecast are not very accurate to say the least.

[tolakram]

Once again the error is too fast. The GFS continues to be too fast and has to slow down each run.

[stormlover2013]

I said on Monday trend would keep going westward till tomorrow, let's see if it continues

[tolakram]

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/EpmZZX2.png[/img]

Track is definitely looking more and more ominous, but it also looks like the GFS has weakened it a lot. It's showing 992mb right? That would equate to cat 1. But I do realize intensity forecast are not very accurate to say the least.

That's a low res plot. Hi res showed 954mb and falling.

[WeatherEmperor]

Western eyewall over St. Lucie County, if not the eye entirely.

At that point, what difference does it make.

+100000000 on this. Landfall or not the FL east coast is getting blasted here


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[tolakram]

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/783514858021085185

[OverlandHurricane]

A loss of 35 MBs of central pressure in 6 hours while moving slowly over the Gulf Stream? Is the GFS trying to schedule an EWRC?

[stormreader]

I said on Monday trend would keep going westward till tomorrow, let's see if it continues

More likely than not. West trend continues.

[SouthFLTropics]

The ridge that is depicted on the models blows my mind. If you would have told me a month ago that we'd get hit by a major storm approaching from the Southeast due to a strong Bermuda high I'd have taken that bet and lost a ton of money. This is unheard of and history in the making. We will remember these model runs and this storm for generations to come.

[tolakram]

[drewschmaltz]

Western eyewall over St. Lucie County, if not the eye entirely.

At that point, what difference does it make.

+100000000 on this. Landfall or not the FL east coast is getting blasted here


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Heck it looks worse if it stays a few miles off shore. If this run verifies Matthew is just going to rake the state. Horrible run.

[tolakram]

Moving away now

[JKingTampa]

With these trends we could even manage to make it to Tropical Storm force all the way to Tampa.

[NDG]

Good night everyone, at least for a couple of hours until the Euro comes out. It will be a long 2-3 days for all of us across eastern FL.
Many people are going to be on shock in the morning when they wake up to the NHC even further west.

[stormreader]

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/783514858021085185

If west trend continues, the destination I picked out so many days ago (keys north up the West Coast) becoming more of a possibility.

[Orlando]

Wouldn't the storm weaken some if it makes landfall in sFL or seFL" The models show it skirting the coast, but if it actually goes in and out of land wouldn't that make it lose strength?

[HurricaneBelle]

With these trends we could even manage to make it to Tropical Storm force all the way to Tampa.

Tampa already has a Tropical Storm wind probability of 46%.

[tolakram]

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/783514858021085185