ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

recocn is in there now. Found 960 mb last pass about to make another pass, I think

[psyclone]

Back one page there was a quote from NBC6 John Morales about the intensification going on, and that Hurricane force winds could be expanding. At what point do they change Tropical Storm warnings for at least a Hurricane watch here in Miami Dade.

If they do it (I suspect they might)..It'll go straight to a hurricane warning due to the narrowing (time) window.

[GeneratorPower]

Looking like the storm is pretty much on its NHC forecast points.

[yzerfan]

Re: mobile homes in Florida. There were major changes to HUD code standards for mobile/manufactured homes in windstorm areas after Andrew to make them more storm ready, and they actually work pretty well. If a home was built in the 21st century, is properly tied down according to manufacturer's spec, and doesn't have any sunrooms or garages attached to it, it can actually do as well as a site-built frame (ie. not concrete block) home in a bad windstorm. There's a good study on a couple of manufactured home parks that pretty much took the eye of Charley you can find on the webs talking about unfortunate real life testing of those HUD rules.

The problem is the large number of pre-Andrew mobile homes in the state, or ones that aren't tied down properly or that have accessory structures that are not windstorm-safe.

[baitism]

Why does the NHC keep saying slight restrengthening? This thing is going to bomb out today and tonight.

[Sav_hurricane_hunter]

So far from last night to current has Matthew stay on course or has the models trended west or east? I'm in Savannah, Ga & wondering w/ it further off our shore will it stay that way & are our chances to be impacted lessening more & more?

[GeneratorPower]

Why does the NHC keep saying slight restrengthening? This thing is going to bomb out today and tonight.

This very much looks like it's poised to intensify. Perhaps rapidly.

[northjaxpro]

recocn is in there now. Found 960 mb last pass about to make another pass, I think

Thanks. I was correct then. I thought Recon was sampling in there.

OK. Thanks Sunny Thoughts. Now, back to finishing some last minute preps here at my home .

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks to everyone who replied to my post,

Hope they don't wait much longer to post them. Guess I will finish up preps here just in case.

[JarrodB]

We have a few more hours of tracking the eye on Cuba's Gran Piedra's radar.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

[xironman]

recocn is in there now. Found 960 mb last pass about to make another pass, I think

Just be sure you use the pressure from the dropsondes, they don't use the extrapolated from flight level because it is too inaccurate.

[stephen23]

We have a few more hours of tracking the eye on Cuba's Gran Piedra's radar.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

More clear on camaguay radar

[hipshot]

visible loop. Rebuilding eyewall, looks to me like it should show strengthening soon, once the outflow gets better established.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-76&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=yellow

Also Showing up really well on Cuba long range radar

ADAR&TB2=../Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif

When you speed it up, it sure looks like it is moving more wnw rather than nnw.

[Hamanard]

It's been pointed out a few times now by the pro mets but I guess it wouldn't hurt to repeat; The NHC base their intensity forecast based on 2 statistical models (I forget what they are called).

[Michele B]

Left Tampa a few hours ago, currently just outside palm beach county. Traffic not bad either way on turnpike

Are you chasing the storm?

Not sure why you're headed TOWARD IT when others are trying to flee - ??

[jlauderdal]

JohnMoralesNBC630 secs
NHC Director putting up his shutters at his home in inland Broward County. https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/status/ ... 5914264577

[hurrtracker79]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/783675615794851841

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/status/783649755914264577




If anyone living in Broward County had any doubts

[Evenstar]

tolakram, just posted a graphic a few posts up. Looks to be on par with the cone so far.

I am glad Mark posted that graphic. What frustrates me is that everybody looks at the same satellite and graphical images but come to completely different conclusions so when I saw the post about Matthew being SW of the track I was like oooooh boy here we go...only to see a few posts later that it really is on the forecast track and NOT further SW. This is why sometimes I have to analyze the models/graphics on my own before reading some of these posts. Very damn irritating I tell you...


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

Sorry if I irritated you! Just asked for clarification. Someone brought the graphic to my attention which was very helpful. I can see that clearly now.

I'll refrain from commenting so that the experts can better utilize the forum.

UGH. NO NO NO NO! Please don't go silent (or apologize). You should post your thoughts and questions any time you like. That's why we have the discussion forum in the first place. It's intimidating sometimes (I know from personal experience), but the only way "civilians" like us learn anything is by following the conversation and asking questions. (And frankly, I've read most of your posts and I am not seeing anything egregious that would warrant a rebuke.)

Some folks here can be a bit strident, but their hearts are in the right place. That being said, the pro-mets themselves (who are very generous with their time) are patient and helpful. They are doing us all a favor by coming here and helping us learn about (as I call them) the beautiful nightmares we call hurricanes.

[Blown Away]

Appears ever so slightly SW of next forecast point...