ATL: HERMINE - Models

[blp]

Fiona is weaker on this run which I think is important.

[blp]

132hr Vorticity looks tighter so far just missed Hispaniola on the north coast. I think this run comes in stronger.

[tarheelprogrammer]

132hr Vorticity looks tighter so far just missed Hispaniola on the north coast. I think this run comes in stronger.

It is weaker so far and not even a TC at hour 150. Last run it was 12 hours before.

[WeatherEmperor]

Meanwhile the system behind 99L blows up into a hurricane again. The one nearest land magically has unfavorable conditions to deal with while the other one just a few hundred miles away has no problem

[Bocadude85]

132hr Vorticity looks tighter so far just missed Hispaniola on the north coast. I think this run comes in stronger.

It is weaker so far and not even a TC at hour 150. Last run it was 12 hours before.

Yea this isn't do much in the Bahamas at 162 hours

[blp]

132hr Vorticity looks tighter so far just missed Hispaniola on the north coast. I think this run comes in stronger.

It is weaker so far and not even a TC at hour 150. Last run it was 12 hours before.

I stand corrected it does look weaker so far.

[tarheelprogrammer]

132hr Vorticity looks tighter so far just missed Hispaniola on the north coast. I think this run comes in stronger.

It is weaker so far and not even a TC at hour 150. Last run it was 12 hours before.

Yea this isn't do much in the Bahamas at 162 hours

All that warm water not meaning much here with this system.

[SeGaBob]

Looks like Cuba might be a problem this run.

[SFLcane]

Intensity guidance has trended upward again yet the GFS has an open wave...

[SFLcane]

Just to much land interaction it appears

[xcool22]

looking like ECMWF nail it imo


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[SFLcane]

Nada!

[JaxGator]

There have been times this year I think where the GFS drops a storm a few days before it forms. I'm in no model camp but I think this might be the case. Just a guess.

[xcool22]

GFS drops storm 198hr

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[SFLcane]

Maybe nhc at 8 says 70% lol..

[SeGaBob]

GFS drops storm

We have yet to see the rest of the run.

[weathaguyry]

It looks as if it were trying to develop, but it just continuously scrapes the coast of Cuba preventing development, if the 0z were to be just a little north, we would probably see a well developed system IMO

[wxmann_91]

Still seems odd to me that you could have a vort max in the Bahamas this time of year with a relatively moist atmosphere, moderate wind shear, and get minimal development. From what I'm seeing on the simulated IR page, it appears the shear might be a little too much for the small vortex. That being said, anytime you get a disturbance in the Bahamas in late August it's worth watching.

We have reframe our line of thinking... the Atlantic basin is just not a very favorable basin for TC genesis and development. Waves developing into storms are the exception, not the norm. The Pacific basins are much more favorable on average.

That's fine and dandy from a climatological perspective, however, the same physical mechanisms that result in TC genesis apply to all basins. The models are showing a lower-tropospheric vorticity maximum in an environment that seems relatively favorable for TC genesis. I was calling into question the mechanism(s) explaining why the models do not display genesis. My hypothesis for the GFS is the shear caused by an upper-tropospheric low to the NW of 99L. That being said, the shear doesn't seem all that strong. It appears the Euro doesn't result in TC genesis because 99L loses enough vorticity by the time it arrives in the Bahamas that the disturbance is unable to amplify.

I'm thinking there's just too much subsidence in the Atlantic right now, which is climatological. Also, the vorticity associated with 99L is all sprawled out right now, which doesn't help its chances to tighten up TC-style.

(What I mean by that is climatologically, there is more subsidence in the Atlantic than the Pacific...)

[Bocadude85]

Maybe nhc at 8 says 70% lol..

I would think at 8pm they would have to lower development chances...

[AutoPenalti]

GFS at it again going from CAT 5 monster yesterday afternoon to an open wave tonight.