ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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SunnyThoughts
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6621 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:29 pm

sma10 wrote:OK... Greatest individual model run of all time?

I think so! haha I know its not funny, I mean thats a strong cane ( the 2nd time too) but what the... cmon now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6622 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:29 pm

sma10 wrote:OK... Greatest individual model run of all time?


If this winds up being a Gulf storm, and a SE storm and a 2x bahamas and 2x florida storm...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6623 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:29 pm

tolakram wrote:Absurd, absolutely absurd.

[/img]


No. I am convinced Ashton Kutcher went to the NWS and took the Gfs computers and is trying to punk us



Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6624 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:30 pm

sma10 wrote:OK... Greatest individual model run of all time?


This run needs to go into the Storm2k archives... Absolutely incredible...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6625 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:30 pm

931mb in the Bahamas heading west or WSW at 180 hours may head to South Florida
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6626 Postby WHYB630 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:30 pm

t@180: 931 heading W :double:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6627 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:30 pm

Alyono wrote:GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 74.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2016 0 20.1N 74.2W 972 70
1200UTC 05.10.2016 12 21.6N 74.8W 981 63
0000UTC 06.10.2016 24 23.1N 76.0W 982 57
1200UTC 06.10.2016 36 24.9N 77.6W 979 54
0000UTC 07.10.2016 48 26.7N 79.2W 974 61
1200UTC 07.10.2016 60 28.9N 80.6W 968 60
0000UTC 08.10.2016 72 30.9N 80.8W 967 62
1200UTC 08.10.2016 84 32.8N 80.1W 975 52
0000UTC 09.10.2016 96 33.4N 78.1W 990 46
1200UTC 09.10.2016 108 33.9N 76.2W 996 49
0000UTC 10.10.2016 120 32.4N 75.1W 1002 51
1200UTC 10.10.2016 132 30.6N 75.5W 1005 41
0000UTC 11.10.2016 144 28.9N 78.3W 1007 37


East shift? Looks like the center never makes it over Florida if I'm plotting it right.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6628 Postby Steve » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:30 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:174 still moving west.


Yeah, that really looks like no escape for South Florida the way it's heading unless it goes underneath and comes back up in the Gulf. No way you'd think, but this is a high oceanic heat content year with some other enhancing (as well as mitigating) factors. The La Neutral has apparently allowed the W Atlantic to be a dominant later season signal. Until that warm is out via the tropics or stalled out fronts, ridging will keep building back in. That's the way it works.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6629 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:30 pm

Epic GFS run. That would be cat 4 again.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6630 Postby jhpigott » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:30 pm

sma10 wrote:OK... Greatest individual model run of all time?


Somebody archive/save this run for the books. Lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6631 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:31 pm

Well, it didn't get the keys the first time, sooooo
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6632 Postby drewschmaltz » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:31 pm

Hour 192 landfall same place as first time?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6633 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:31 pm

LOL WHAT IS THIS???
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6634 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:32 pm

Tolakram/Mark Thanks so much for staying up and posting the run... Most epic ...ridiculous, but epic
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6635 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:32 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:LOL WHAT IS THIS???


No worries, it's OTS!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6636 Postby sma10 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:32 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 74.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2016 0 20.1N 74.2W 972 70
1200UTC 05.10.2016 12 21.6N 74.8W 981 63
0000UTC 06.10.2016 24 23.1N 76.0W 982 57
1200UTC 06.10.2016 36 24.9N 77.6W 979 54
0000UTC 07.10.2016 48 26.7N 79.2W 974 61
1200UTC 07.10.2016 60 28.9N 80.6W 968 60
0000UTC 08.10.2016 72 30.9N 80.8W 967 62
1200UTC 08.10.2016 84 32.8N 80.1W 975 52
0000UTC 09.10.2016 96 33.4N 78.1W 990 46
1200UTC 09.10.2016 108 33.9N 76.2W 996 49
0000UTC 10.10.2016 120 32.4N 75.1W 1002 51
1200UTC 10.10.2016 132 30.6N 75.5W 1005 41
0000UTC 11.10.2016 144 28.9N 78.3W 1007 37


East shift? Looks like the center never makes it over Florida if I'm plotting it right.


Perhaps... But I think it gets it on the 2nd go 'round. :D
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6637 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:32 pm

I thought the GFS had already run, what is this??????
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6638 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:32 pm

ACE champion of the century!!! 00z GFS
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6639 Postby ronyan » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:33 pm

May hit S FL
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6640 Postby TheHook210 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:33 pm

I don't know if I should laugh or cry at this point.
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