ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

question, will the interaction with those small islands on the was NW effect the intensity?

Very unlikely. The biggest island, Andros, is essentially flat marshland and mangrove forest. The tallest point in the Bahamas is only about 200 feet high.

[Steve]

I would stay.

Well I respect what you are thinking. I live not too far away from Oceanway area . I am just worried about trees and flying debris in my region, other than power outage. My poeer went out in Julia a few weeks ago. Living out near the Intracoasta, l there are a bit more concerns that I am dealing with.

But to each their own. I pray whatever he fecides will be the best decision for him and is family.

Also in addition to any damage that may occur to your house or property, The fact that you will most likely lose power...and not for just a day, but possibly a week, or even two. I've been through plenty of storms here on the gulfcoast...and trust me, the loss of power for 2 weeks was horrid. I"d tell him to come to Tallahassee...if the storm misses his area, then you've had a nice visit...if it hits his area dead on, he will be thankful he came to visit you.

That's good advice. But just the same, they usually clear the roads a day or two after the storm passes with the walking chainsaw guys and trucks, so he probably wouldn't have to suffer for a week or two without power assuming he has gas enough to make it to Tallahassee which is only a couple of hours drive. That assumes he wants to ride it out of course.

[christchurchguy]

Low Shear
Intact core
Moist air
High ssts

Is there anything environmentally which could low this down in the next few days?

[Sanibel]

question, will the interaction with those small islands on the was NW effect the intensity?

They said they won't. There's an upper level high overhead that is supposed to wind it up.

[SouthFLTropics]

Just checked my closest point of approach on the latest track and it has moved closer to me on this update. Center at closest approach is expected 49 miles from me. Based on recent tracking I expect that to shrink even further.

[northjaxpro]

I would stay.

Well I respect what you are thinking. I live not too far away from Oceanway area . I am just worried about trees and flying debris in my region, other than power outage. My power went out in Julia a few weeks ago. Living out near the Intracoasta, l there are a bit more concerns that I am dealing with.

But to each their own. I pray whatever he fecides will be the best decision for him and is family.

Also in addition to any damage that may occur to your house or property, The fact that you will most likely lose power...and not for just a day, but possibly a week, or even two. I've been through plenty of storms here on the gulfcoast...and trust me, the loss of power for 2 weeks was horrid. I"d tell him to come to Tallahassee...if the storm misses his area, then you've had a nice visit...if it hits his area dead on, he will be thankful he came to visit you.

Yeah I am with you. I would head for Tallahassee too. It is something I also is contemplating to do as well. I have a sister who lives over there and I am trying to decide to leave ir not myself.

[jlauderdal]

JohnMoralesNBC658 secs
5 AM NHC forecast for #Matthew was for 22.3 & 75.3 by 2 PM. At 11 AM actual position 21.8 & 75.2. Crucial to watch short term west tendency.

I am frankly shocked that the NHC has not issued a Hurricane Warning for Miami-Dade County. It's more than just semantics, as thousands of businesses will actually remain open under a Tropical Storm Warning, but close for a Hurricane Warning.

they have to break it somewhere but the upper keys would be ok..however, their track and wind models say no warning needed...they can change it but they need to do it at 2 pm for it to have the desired effect of people putting up shutters, etc.

[sponger]

Well I respect what you are thinking. I live not too far away from Oceanway area . I am just worried about trees and flying debris in my region, other than power outage. My poeer went out in Julia a few weeks ago. Living out near the Intracoasta, l there are a bit more concerns that I am dealing with.

But to each their own. I pray whatever he fecides will be the best decision for him and is family.

Also in addition to any damage that may occur to your house or property, The fact that you will most likely lose power...and not for just a day, but possibly a week, or even two. I've been through plenty of storms here on the gulfcoast...and trust me, the loss of power for 2 weeks was horrid. I"d tell him to come to Tallahassee...if the storm misses his area, then you've had a nice visit...if it hits his area dead on, he will be thankful he came to visit you.

Yeah I am with you. I would head for Tallahassee too. It is something I also is contemplating to do as well. I have a sister who lives over there and I am trying to decide to leave ir not myself.

Tallahassee is a great town!

[meriland23]

It's pretty remarkable, the NHC predicted a 105 mph storm by the time it approaches, and has bumped it up to 130 mph by the time it is parallel with FL. Makes me wonder how much of the forecasted shear has tamed, and if even 130 is conservative by then. Seems like the convection is blowing up this morning after Cuba.

[Blown Away]

Is the eye a bit tilted towards the NE... The visible hole in the clouds a bit NE of the position... I think it is..

[Michele B]

Just checked my closest point of approach on the latest track and it has moved closer to me on this update. Center at closest approach is expected 49 miles from me. Based on recent tracking I expect that to shrink even further.

My dad lives over there, and doesn't think it's necessary to put up the hurricane shutters.

All I can do is pray for them. They say they're just going to sleep until it's over! I'm very concerned. They have 3 sets of big slider doors that need to be shuttered, but they DON'T want to bother....

[northjaxpro]

Just found out that the Georgia DOT is now using Interstate 16 one way both directions to serve as the chief evacuation route for the areas of Coastal Georgia region.

[SunnyThoughts]

Well I respect what you are thinking. I live not too far away from Oceanway area . I am just worried about trees and flying debris in my region, other than power outage. My poeer went out in Julia a few weeks ago. Living out near the Intracoasta, l there are a bit more concerns that I am dealing with.

But to each their own. I pray whatever he fecides will be the best decision for him and is family.

Also in addition to any damage that may occur to your house or property, The fact that you will most likely lose power...and not for just a day, but possibly a week, or even two. I've been through plenty of storms here on the gulfcoast...and trust me, the loss of power for 2 weeks was horrid. I"d tell him to come to Tallahassee...if the storm misses his area, then you've had a nice visit...if it hits his area dead on, he will be thankful he came to visit you.

That's good advice. But just the same, they usually clear the roads a day or two after the storm passes with the walking chainsaw guys and trucks, so he probably wouldn't have to suffer for a week or two without power assuming he has gas enough to make it to Tallahassee which is only a couple of hours drive. That assumes he wants to ride it out of course.

WE had no "walking chainsaw guys" Folks in the neighborhood with chainsaws got together and cleared the roads. But that certainly didn't mean we got power back right away. It depends on how much help the local power companies are getting from other areas. There is a large chunk of coastline that could be without power should the storm ride the coast. We actually had power trucks from all over the United States here in Pensacola after Ivan..but it still took 2 weeks to restore power.

[GCANE]

Going to cross a good slug of high heat-content water today.

Pretty much the same level that was in the Carib

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 051200.GIF

[meriland23]

photo of Matthew as of yesterday, this is kinda freaky..

[northjaxpro]

Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry is now asking all residents of the Beaches to leave, but a voluntary evacuation.

[SeGaBob]

Northjaxpro, I really respect your opinion but you have to notice the trend slightly east up by Jax.

[NYR__1994]

Question for the Jax folks on here: my brother lives about 4 miles inland from Jax beach (Hodges Blvd) in a brick house.
Would you stay, or head over here to Tallahassee? Thanks

I would tell your brother to get out. I am very familiar with that area of town. He is just inland from the Intracoastal Waterway and with the eyewall forecast to get right at the coast or even landfall, I personally would leave being that close to the Beaches region.

I am going through a similar situation, but I am inland about. 20 miles inland from the coast. Still weighing to leave my home and head inland, but leaning to ride out the storm (with unsettling trepedation)

Thanks northjaxpro. That is the way he has been leaning. A lot of his coworkers at Mayo are laughing at his concern and blowing this off. It sounds like some of the local mets there are downplaying the threat and betting the farm on it staying pretty far offshore.

The same seems to be happening up here in Savannah re the local mets. They are so focused on the NHC track that they are not taking into consideration the cone, and a 20-30 mile shift or wobble will have dramatic differences. I am approx 20 miles inland, but only 10 feet above sea level and close to inland rivers and canals. a 10 ft storm surge puts my house in the water.

[miamijaaz]

JohnMoralesNBC658 secs
5 AM NHC forecast for #Matthew was for 22.3 & 75.3 by 2 PM. At 11 AM actual position 21.8 & 75.2. Crucial to watch short term west tendency.

I am frankly shocked that the NHC has not issued a Hurricane Warning for Miami-Dade County. It's more than just semantics, as thousands of businesses will actually remain open under a Tropical Storm Warning, but close for a Hurricane Warning.

they have to break it somewhere but the upper keys would be ok..however, their track and wind models say no warning needed...they can change it but they need to do it at 2 pm for it to have the desired effect of people putting up shutters, etc.

True, but you're looking at a Category 3/4 storm approaching the most populous county in Florida and coming, even by the NHC track, within 75 miles or less of many cities in the county. A slightly more southern or westernly track or jog could put hurricane force winds into Dade County--which I think is what John Morales is saying. With many businesses actually open tomorrow.

[TheStormExpert]

NWS: Miami impact graphics. Still some room for change.