ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Northjaxpro, I really respect your opinion but you have to notice the trend slightly east up by Jax.

For the past day you have been attempting to downplay threats to the Florida east coast. That needs to stop.

[NYR__1994]

Just found out that the Georgia DOT is now using Interstate 16 one way both directions to serve as the chief evacuation route for the areas of Coastal Georgia region.

Do you have a link for this?

[SeGaBob]

Northjaxpro, I really respect your opinion but you have to notice the trend slightly east up by Jax.

For the past day you have been attempting to downplay threats to the Florida east coast. That needs to stop.

I'm not downplaying anything...asking a serious question. Quit overreacting to everything I say...

[Jevo]

The GFS currently running has a landfall solution into WPB/PSL in 42 hours; west of previous runs.

EDIT At 54 hours it rides the FL coastline and is inland by about 10 miles near Melbourne/Daytona

[TheStormExpert]

From this mornings NWS: Miami Forecast Discussion.

..EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW LIKELY TO BRING WIDESPREAD
AND EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ALONG THE EAST FLORIDA COAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

[Tireman4]

Northjaxpro, I really respect your opinion but you have to notice the trend slightly east up by Jax.

For the past day you have been attempting to downplay threats to the Florida east coast. That needs to stop.

I'm not downplaying anything...asking a serious question. Quit overreacting to everything I say...

Guys we have been around here a long time. This is a time of tension for you all, I get it, but make sure to be nice...

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/783690458836901888




This is for the posters who were saying the storm seems to be nudge west from the track.

[WeatherEmperor]

I have a question. Lets say for example that Matthew stays like 25 miles off the coast but rakes the entire FL coast. Do we still consider the 11 year major hurricane streak over...or does it require a landfall??


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[northjaxpro]

Northjaxpro, I really respect your opinion but you have to notice the trend slightly east up by Jax.

Yeah but by the time Matthew moves east of north at Jax latitude, the impacts we have already been greatly impacted at the coast and areas within 30 -50 miles from the coast. That turn I afraid will come a bit late for us Larry

I pray I am wrong about that Larry trust me!!!

[jlauderdal]

I have a question. Lets say for example that Matthew stays like 25 miles off the coast but rakes the entire FL coast. Do we still consider the 11 year major hurricane streak over...or does it require a landfall??


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it has to make landfall to count

[Tenpins300]

It seems NHC is hesitant to forecast landfall since they are using models that are suggesting a loop scenario. Am I reading this right? And what is the prospect of Matthew hitting the SC coastline such as Charleston. Trying to help family decide whether to evacuate or not.

[dukeblue219]

Latest dropsonde in the eastern eyewall doesn't have surface winds, but just above the splash it recorded 130mph, with solid cat 4 winds all the way down from 850mb. Not sustained winds, but nonetheless, one of the stronger dropsonde's in a while at the lower levels.

Code: Select all

973mb (Surface)   Unavailable
971mb   125° (from the SE)   113 knots (130 mph)
961mb   125° (from the SE)   127 knots (146 mph)
928mb   140° (from the SE)   126 knots (145 mph)
913mb   140° (from the SE)   132 knots (152 mph)
887mb   145° (from the SE)   121 knots (139 mph)
850mb   145° (from the SE)   116 knots (133 mph)
696mb   180° (from the S)   88 knots (101 mph)

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/783694578096439296

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/783695584431525888

[fci]

I haven't read every page of this thread, but would like to know if you all were in Orlando, would you evacuate?

Also, are the people in Orlando putting up plywood on the windows? Are there other ways to secure the windows besides plywood or shutters?

This forum is always so helpful. This is my first major hurricane to go through.

The general rule is evacuation is for storm surge, not wind. Orlando is not on the coast, therefore, the general rule is not evacuation out of the area. You may however want to evacuate your home into another local building if you feel it is not sturdy enough to ride out the storm.

Trite, but true saying:
Run from the Water and Hide from the Wind

[jlauderdal]

The GFS currently running has a landfall solution into WPB/PSL in 42 hours; west of previous runs.

EDIT At 54 hours it rides the FL coastline and is inland by about 10 miles near Melbourne/Daytona

The trend for days has been west and that continues...john morales is all over it...everyone from.fll north to the cape and beyobd better be ready for a landfalling major

[fci]

With this extra attention south, I'm thinking Palm Beach may be a target for landfall, or the eye is just off the shore.

11:00 AM How Close Will it Get for me in Lake Worth was 65 miles at 2:36 AM Friday morning

[Stangfriik]

Question for the Jax folks on here: my brother lives about 4 miles inland from Jax beach (Hodges Blvd) in a brick house.
Would you stay, or head over here to Tallahassee? Thanks

I would tell your brother to get out. I am very familiar with that area of town. He is just inland from the Intracoastal Waterway and with the eyewall forecast to get right at the coast or even landfall, I personally would leave being that close to the Beaches region.

I am going through a similar situation, but I am inland about. 20 miles inland from the coast. Still weighing to leave my home and head inland, but leaning to ride out the storm (with unsettling trepedation)

Hmm really?? Not sure how much of a difference it is but we are in new smyrna beach and We are about 2 blocks from the intracoastal in an old 1940s block home that survived David in 1979 so I figured we'd be fine. We are about 1.5 miles from the beach. Thinking otherwise now

[dukeblue219]

It seems NHC is hesitant to forecast landfall since they are using models that are suggesting a loop scenario. Am I reading this right? And what is the prospect of Matthew hitting the SC coastline such as Charleston. Trying to help family decide whether to evacuate or not.

The "loop" really has nothing to do with the probability of a FL landfall. Both can happen, or neither. The loop happens several days later as the storm crosses general area of the SC/NC boundary (at sea for now). Regardless, we are all making too much of whether the eye itself actually makes landfall vs spinning 10 miles offshore. I'd hesitate to guide anyone as to what their family should do in the threatened area. Follow the NHC guidance and your local weather offices in SC because they will know much better. If they're in the evac zone still, I'd definitely listen hard to the authorities.

[miamijaaz]

NWS: Miami impact graphics. Still some room for change.

NWS has all of Miami-Dade County under a high (red) potential for hurricane force winds, but the NHC hasn't issued a Hurricane Watch for Miami-Dade. Interesting.