ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 311845
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 18 20160831
183600 2613N 08914W 8431 01561 0069 +196 +169 034023 024 021 000 00
183630 2610N 08914W 8431 01560 0069 +195 +170 029021 022 021 000 00
183700 2608N 08914W 8431 01559 0068 +195 +171 028019 020 020 000 00
183730 2606N 08914W 8432 01558 0066 +197 +170 025020 020 020 000 00
183800 2604N 08914W 8431 01558 0064 +199 +171 028017 018 021 000 00
183830 2602N 08914W 8432 01557 0064 +200 +170 026015 015 020 000 00
183900 2600N 08913W 8434 01556 0065 +199 +170 028016 017 019 000 00
183930 2558N 08913W 8431 01559 0065 +198 +168 032016 016 020 000 00
184000 2556N 08913W 8433 01556 0065 +197 +170 029017 017 020 000 00
184030 2554N 08913W 8433 01555 0064 +197 +169 026017 018 019 000 00
184100 2552N 08913W 8432 01556 0065 +197 +170 024018 018 018 000 03
184130 2550N 08912W 8432 01556 0064 +196 +174 022018 019 020 000 00
184200 2548N 08911W 8433 01555 0063 +199 +169 022019 020 020 000 00
184230 2546N 08910W 8432 01555 0062 +199 +166 023019 019 020 000 00
184300 2544N 08909W 8432 01554 0062 +199 +161 022019 019 021 000 00
184330 2542N 08908W 8431 01556 0062 +199 +160 025018 019 020 000 00
184400 2541N 08907W 8434 01554 0063 +200 +160 022018 019 020 000 00
184430 2539N 08906W 8434 01554 0062 +201 +164 019018 019 019 000 00
184500 2537N 08905W 8431 01556 0065 +196 +162 018016 017 019 000 00
184530 2535N 08903W 8434 01553 0062 +200 +158 015016 016 017 000 00

Need to go to class for the next hour.

[psyclone]

This is 100% conjecture, BUT am I the only one that thinks with the current projected changes to the NNE then NE this will have a hard time getting up as far north as Apalachicola going the current 2mph speed it is? It seems like the models may be having a hard time getting a handle on its movement. I'm not saying it'll hang a hard right and go into Tampa/ Bradenton, but it looks to me like it's certainly very possible it comes into the more southern side of the cone. Anyone? Bueller?

Just keep your eye on the NHC tracks and the probability products. The track has been ticking west (hence the lowering of TS wind probs for the Tampa bay area). Early estimates were around Levy county and now it's a good bit north of there. I trust the folks at the NHC. If things change they'll adjust as needed. But as today's weather has demonstrated around the bay area, adverse weather, especially heavy rain, is occurring well away from the center.

[ScottNAtlanta]

My guess was 1002 and 45, not too bad.

I do believe you got the closest

[txwatcher91]

This is 100% conjecture, BUT am I the only one that thinks with the current projected changes to the NNE then NE this will have a hard time getting up as far north as Apalachicola going the current 2mph speed it is? It seems like the models may be having a hard time getting a handle on its movement. I'm not saying it'll hang a hard right and go into Tampa/ Bradenton, but it looks to me like it's certainly very possible it comes into the more southern side of the cone. Anyone? Bueller?

I have reiterated this in several points and although I am no meteorologist - I did predict the storm stall / slow down when models did not. The models are seriously deficient in accounting for several factors, one of which I believe is the effect of centripetal force and another would be multiple vortices (this storm is accused of having this problem).

With centripetal force taking over, the previous (albeit extremely slow) path of movement will now be significantly affected and pulled eastward more - largely a result of cyclonic motion versus anti-cyclonic motion. The path of this storm really depends on which force is greater, but my money is on centripetal instead of its meeting with the trough as some have overstated. A landfall south of Tampa is very plausible if centripetal force pulls the system east and then north - IMO

Sorry but I have to strongly disagree with this. The influence of the trough will be far greater than any other influences mentioned above. Several models did indicate the slower motion and stalling, specifically the NAM, RGEM, and NAVGEM. Models strongly agree on a slow N to NE heading the next few days and this looks very likely to occur. I see nothing whatsoever to suggest a landfall along or south or Tampa.

[GCANE]

Definitely a feeder band running along 85.5W.
Being feed by 4000 CAPE air coming from the south.

[RL3AO]

Here's what I'm seeing with the thunderstorms ahead of Hermine.

[gatorcane]

Wow just copious amounts of rain for the Tampa Bay area, the radar is lighting up. Just shows you don't need to be near the center of a developing TC to have some serious effects.

[FLLurker32]

This is 100% conjecture, BUT am I the only one that thinks with the current projected changes to the NNE then NE this will have a hard time getting up as far north as Apalachicola going the current 2mph speed it is? It seems like the models may be having a hard time getting a handle on its movement. I'm not saying it'll hang a hard right and go into Tampa/ Bradenton, but it looks to me like it's certainly very possible it comes into the more southern side of the cone. Anyone? Bueller?

I have reiterated this in several points and although I am no meteorologist - I did predict the storm stall / slow down when models did not. The models are seriously deficient in accounting for several factors, one of which I believe is the effect of centripetal force and another would be multiple vortices (this storm is accused of having this problem).

With centripetal force taking over, the previous (albeit extremely slow) path of movement will now be significantly affected and pulled eastward more - largely a result of cyclonic motion versus anti-cyclonic motion. The path of this storm really depends on which force is greater, but my money is on centripetal instead of its meeting with the trough as some have overstated. A landfall south of Tampa is very plausible if centripetal force pulls the system east and then north - IMO

Sorry but I have to strongly disagree with this. The influence of the trough will be far greater than any other influences mentioned above. Several models did indicate the slower motion and stalling, specifically the NAM, RGEM, and NAVGEM. Models strongly agree on a slow N to NE heading the next few days and this looks very likely to occur. I see nothing whatsoever to suggest a landfall along or south or Tampa.

To be clear, I specifically said I was not referring to Tampa area. I mentioned that it looks to me like it is still very possible it could go on the more southern end of the existing warning cone that is currently laid out by NHC. I don't think that idea is completely off base, and if it is then a cone for margins of error are pointless.

[benh316]

This is 100% conjecture, BUT am I the only one that thinks with the current projected changes to the NNE then NE this will have a hard time getting up as far north as Apalachicola going the current 2mph speed it is? It seems like the models may be having a hard time getting a handle on its movement. I'm not saying it'll hang a hard right and go into Tampa/ Bradenton, but it looks to me like it's certainly very possible it comes into the more southern side of the cone. Anyone? Bueller?

I have reiterated this in several points and although I am no meteorologist - I did predict the storm stall / slow down when models did not. The models are seriously deficient in accounting for several factors, one of which I believe is the effect of centripetal force and another would be multiple vortices (this storm is accused of having this problem).

With centripetal force taking over, the previous (albeit extremely slow) path of movement will now be significantly affected and pulled eastward more - largely a result of cyclonic motion versus anti-cyclonic motion. The path of this storm really depends on which force is greater, but my money is on centripetal instead of its meeting with the trough as some have overstated. A landfall south of Tampa is very plausible if centripetal force pulls the system east and then north - IMO

Sorry but I have to strongly disagree with this. The influence of the trough will be far greater than any other influences mentioned above. Several models did indicate the slower motion and stalling, specifically the NAM, RGEM, and NAVGEM. Models strongly agree on a slow N to NE heading the next few days and this looks very likely to occur. I see nothing whatsoever to suggest a landfall along or south or Tampa.

Don't cling too tightly to models and computers - they are just as fallible as the programmers. You may of course be correct in that the trough will be the stronger force - only time will tell. My gut tells me that there is a serious chance this moves much further east than the models are predicting at the moment. Because let's face it - if we trusted models than why are we looking at the storm still? Shouldn't this system have hit the east coast directly by now and moved out already as of a week ago

[StarmanHDB]

So, our little storm system is all grown up. Should I start going through all of the "Call Bones" posts? Well, it may take a while, but it will be worth it. Not to sound mean, but it's time to sort the wheat from the chaff. Time to figure out who's who here. Time to sort out who has been consistently and scientifically logical concerning the cyclogenesis of TS Hermine from those who have been consistently wrong. Thank you Hermine. Because of your long odyssey I'll now be able to figure out which Storm2K posters are worth following.

That doesn't work because I've seen someone be completely right about one storm and then dead wrong about the next one. It's best to just follow what the meteorologists say due to their professional background and training

This is true, however my key words are 'consistently' and 'scientifically'. This also holds true to the working pro-mets on this board. A select few of them have been right on target with not only this system, but with many others over the years. Kudos to them, their caution, reasoned reticence, and their generosity in willingly sharing their time, thoughts, and valuable information (at no cost to us) during which must be a very busy time for them. Thank you, thank, you, thank you!

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KWBC 311855
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 19 20160831
184600 2533N 08902W 8434 01552 0060 +201 +157 012016 017 016 000 00
184630 2531N 08901W 8434 01551 0059 +201 +160 012017 017 017 000 00
184700 2530N 08900W 8434 01549 0058 +200 +163 012018 018 017 000 00
184730 2528N 08859W 8434 01550 0057 +201 +162 012018 019 017 000 00
184800 2526N 08858W 8434 01549 0056 +204 +160 012018 018 017 000 00
184830 2524N 08857W 8434 01549 0054 +206 +159 011017 017 016 000 00
184900 2522N 08856W 8434 01549 0053 +207 +157 010017 018 017 000 00
184930 2520N 08855W 8434 01548 0052 +207 +157 011018 019 017 000 00
185000 2519N 08854W 8434 01547 0052 +208 +155 014018 018 016 000 00
185030 2517N 08853W 8434 01546 0050 +210 +152 011018 018 016 000 00
185100 2515N 08852W 8435 01545 0048 +211 +148 013018 018 018 000 00
185130 2513N 08851W 8435 01545 0049 +211 +148 015020 021 016 000 00
185200 2511N 08850W 8435 01544 0047 +213 +145 012019 019 017 000 00
185230 2509N 08849W 8435 01545 0047 +214 +142 009019 019 017 000 00
185300 2507N 08848W 8435 01545 0047 +215 +143 011019 019 017 000 00
185330 2505N 08847W 8435 01543 0045 +215 +144 011020 020 015 001 00
185400 2504N 08846W 8435 01543 0046 +211 +151 008021 021 017 000 00
185430 2502N 08845W 8435 01543 0047 +210 +151 007020 020 015 000 00
185500 2500N 08844W 8434 01544 0047 +210 +150 010020 020 015 000 00
185530 2458N 08843W 8435 01543 0047 +210 +150 008020 020 017 000 00

[benh316]

I have reiterated this in several points and although I am no meteorologist - I did predict the storm stall / slow down when models did not. The models are seriously deficient in accounting for several factors, one of which I believe is the effect of centripetal force and another would be multiple vortices (this storm is accused of having this problem).

With centripetal force taking over, the previous (albeit extremely slow) path of movement will now be significantly affected and pulled eastward more - largely a result of cyclonic motion versus anti-cyclonic motion. The path of this storm really depends on which force is greater, but my money is on centripetal instead of its meeting with the trough as some have overstated. A landfall south of Tampa is very plausible if centripetal force pulls the system east and then north - IMO

Sorry but I have to strongly disagree with this. The influence of the trough will be far greater than any other influences mentioned above. Several models did indicate the slower motion and stalling, specifically the NAM, RGEM, and NAVGEM. Models strongly agree on a slow N to NE heading the next few days and this looks very likely to occur. I see nothing whatsoever to suggest a landfall along or south or Tampa.

To be clear, I specifically said I was not referring to Tampa area. I mentioned that it looks to me like it is still very possible it could go on the more southern end of the existing warning cone that is currently laid out by NHC. I don't think that idea is completely off base, and if it is then a cone for margins of error are pointless.

I'm literally laughing at loud at this right now - thinking about the fact we have a "rebel" system in the Caribbean and we are discussing the rules of NHC models...

TS Hermine be like - "They are more like guidelines anyway... Arrrrr" -

[Blinhart]

Well I just stepped outside and looked up in the sky, the lower level winds are still blowing West and the top of the clouds are getting blown off to the West even faster, so I don't see anything moving East down here in South Louisiana, so there is nothing around here to stop this system from moving due North or even NorthWest.

[TropicalSailor]

So am I losing it? Did this just kick it in Reverse? Forget the northward turn we'll just whip it around 180 Deg and go.

[dixiebreeze]

While scrutinizing the forecast track, don't forget Charlie a few years ago. The track forecast was much farther north in the gulf, but Charlie suddenly took a hard right into the Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte area of Florida, and then onto Orlando where a lot of folks had evacuated.

[Frank P]

Well I just stepped outside and looked up in the sky, the lower level winds are still blowing West and the top of the clouds are getting blown off to the West even faster, so I don't see anything moving East down here in South Louisiana, so there is nothing around here to stop this system from moving due North or even NorthWest.

Go check out the water vapor loop at this link, set it at 30 frames and speed it up, you will definitely see the front that is driving down that will most definitely steer the TS off to the NNE and NE... http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[La Sirena]

So am I losing it? Did this just kick it in Reverse? Forget the northward turn we'll just whip it around 180 Deg and go.

Lol I thought the same thing!

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KWBC 311905
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 20 20160831
185600 2456N 08842W 8435 01543 0047 +207 +154 003018 018 017 000 00
185630 2454N 08841W 8435 01541 0046 +207 +156 356018 019 016 000 00
185700 2452N 08840W 8435 01541 0045 +207 +159 352017 017 015 000 00
185730 2450N 08839W 8435 01541 0046 +204 +164 348017 017 018 000 00
185800 2448N 08838W 8435 01539 0045 +204 +170 343017 017 019 000 00
185830 2447N 08837W 8434 01541 0046 +202 +174 342015 016 019 000 03
185900 2446N 08835W 8436 01539 0047 +199 +177 338015 015 018 000 00
185930 2447N 08832W 8435 01540 0047 +202 +171 338015 015 015 000 00
190000 2448N 08831W 8439 01536 0049 +195 +182 338015 015 015 000 00
190030 2449N 08829W 8436 01537 0049 +195 +170 336014 014 015 000 00
190100 2451N 08828W 8436 01537 0049 +195 +165 336013 014 016 000 00
190130 2452N 08826W 8435 01538 0051 +190 +170 341014 015 015 000 00
190200 2453N 08824W 8434 01538 0051 +189 +185 346014 016 015 000 00
190230 2455N 08823W 8436 01536 0051 +189 +173 340013 013 016 000 00
190300 2456N 08821W 8434 01539 0052 +188 +176 339012 013 015 000 00
190330 2457N 08820W 8434 01539 0051 +190 +173 342011 011 013 000 00
190400 2458N 08818W 8435 01538 0050 +192 +171 346010 010 014 000 00
190430 2500N 08817W 8434 01538 0048 +195 +170 354010 011 016 000 00
190500 2501N 08815W 8434 01538 0047 +194 +179 357011 013 015 000 00
190530 2502N 08814W 8434 01538 0043 +201 +178 008013 013 015 001 00

[psyclone]

Because this has been a large and diffuse system the exact track is not as important as a small tightly knotted vortex like Charley was. hazardous weather in the form of heavy rain and squalls will extend well east and south of the center. this has been a consistent forecast for days as dry air impinges in the western side resulting in a sharp QPF gradient west of the center.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

If its moving North its at walking speed...Trough wont catch it till later..this thing was still not at 25N. I have no confidence in the models right now in terms of timeframes