ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

TS force wind probabilities went up for GA but the track is further offshore. Why would that be?

One possibility could be that the size of the storm expanded / wind field radii increased.
But I'm just SPECULATING! I have not had a chance to compare the current size / windfield with past values.

[CrazyC83]

I'd think Hurricane Warnings will need to be extended down to Key Largo with that run, and a TS Warning would be needed for the Florida west coast.

[JPmia]

The GFS currently running has a landfall solution into WPB/PSL in 42 hours; west of previous runs.

EDIT At 54 hours it rides the FL coastline and is inland by about 10 miles near Melbourne/Daytona

The trend for days has been west and that continues...john morales is all over it...everyone from.fll north to the cape and beyobd better be ready for a landfalling major

yes, I am getting the feeling this may come in more south than current models show.. just a hunch right now, but it's been on my mind the past two days as the trends keep moving west/south toward Florida. I will be looking for north jogs today/tonight to make me feel better.

[GCANE]

Multiple Theta-E Ridges now building.
One just to the NE of the CoC, one in the Straits, and one off KSC.
The one off KSC currently has 4000 CAPE associated with it and will likely be the big feed for Matthew.

[wxman57]

TS force wind probabilities went up for GA but the track is further offshore. Why would that be?

One possibility could be that the size of the storm expanded / wind field radii increased.
But I'm just SPECULATING! I have not had a chance to compare the current size / windfield with past values.

That's not necessarily true. Think of the probabilities as a series of cones, with the highest probability cone near the current storm center. As the storm gets closer to an area (Georgia, for example), the probabilities will increase regardless of whether or not the eventual track is farther offshore.

[StormHunter72]

Not liking these western trends at all.

[jlauderdal]

The GFS currently running has a landfall solution into WPB/PSL in 42 hours; west of previous runs.

EDIT At 54 hours it rides the FL coastline and is inland by about 10 miles near Melbourne/Daytona

The trend for days has been west and that continues...john morales is all over it...everyone from.fll north to the cape and beyobd better be ready for a landfalling major

yes, I am getting the feeling this may come in more south than current models show.. just a hunch right now, but it's been on my mind the past two days as the trends keep moving west/south toward Florida. I will be looking for north jogs today/tonight to make me feel better.

read the john.morales tweet...a few more hours of 320 motion and its a palm beach broward co center

[SeGaBob]

Thanks wxman 57

[Happy Pelican]

Just checked my closest point of approach on the latest track and it has moved closer to me on this update. Center at closest approach is expected 49 miles from me. Based on recent tracking I expect that to shrink even further.

My dad lives over there, and doesn't think it's necessary to put up the hurricane shutters.

All I can do is pray for them. They say they're just going to sleep until it's over! I'm very concerned. They have 3 sets of big slider doors that need to be shuttered, but they DON'T want to bother....

My 87yo father in law is just outside Charleston, SC and is blowing this off too

[Hammy]

I know a few people in Titusville who aren't avid trackers, should I let them know to prepare for possibly Cat 3 conditions?

[bqknight]

I know a few people in Titusville who aren't avid trackers, should I let them know to prepare for possibly Cat 3 conditions?

Yes. I would definitely rather be prepared than not.

[sancholopez]

Just checked my closest point of approach on the latest track and it has moved closer to me on this update. Center at closest approach is expected 49 miles from me. Based on recent tracking I expect that to shrink even further.

My dad lives over there, and doesn't think it's necessary to put up the hurricane shutters.

All I can do is pray for them. They say they're just going to sleep until it's over! I'm very concerned. They have 3 sets of big slider doors that need to be shuttered, but they DON'T want to bother....

It's amazing how much those big glass sliders will bend and bow before breaking. I watch glass do things with Wilma I didnt think possible. The glass was panting. Of course and elderly person died in that storm when their slider broke off the track and crush the lady.

[Sanibel]

It's doing "The Fist". Strengthening.

[stephen23]

It's doing "The Fist". Strengthening.

I don't see it strengthening yet. Still having an issue with some dry air after Cuba. Sill has an open eyewall to the west as seen on radar as well as confirmed by recon. Has not started dropping pressure yet

[Happy Pelican]

For those that are evacuating, Sandy taught me many things. Take pictures of both the interior and exterior of your homes, including tv's etc... Also, be sure to have both your Homeowners and Flood insurance declaration pages in the event you need to make a claim (I pray you don't).

As bizarre as many of you may think this is, if you use a safe deposit box at a bank in a flood zone and the box is close to the floor, GET YOUR STUFF OUT OF IT. The branch of the bank I use took 4+ feet of water through it during a sandy and about a month after the storm, we were finally able to access our safe deposit boxes. So many people lost all their box contents. There was still bay water sitting in them. And I think of all the times I groaned because mine was up so high

If you're on a barrier, grab plenty of clothes, meds, important docs...etc... in the event access to the barrier is restricted (couldn't get back to my house for over two weeks after Sandy).

I know every storm is different but I hope this helps.

[Alyono]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm ... SKCN1250G2

Hiti death toll up to 11 with no words from where landfall occurred. So far 5 wind and 6 flood deaths. Sadly, I expect the number to skyrocket

[tgenius]

not necessarily "worrying" yet in Miami, but if he keeps that WNW heading (based on John Morales' tweet info) then I will absolutely be closing my accordion shutters tonight. I lived through Katrina, was supposed to go in through broward, I fell asleep in my condo and woke up to the sliding glass doors buckling, was confused, and then saw the SW dip (which NOGAPS if I am not mistaken was the only model to predict it) 2pm and 5pm advisories for plot distance will be mighty interesting.

[feederband]

Any Planes in there right now?

[GCANE]

Core temp now up to 12C.

A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 15:19:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°54'N 75°09'W (21.9N 75.15W)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 964mb (28.47 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)

L. Eye Character: Open in the west, W
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)

[Evil Jeremy]

Any Planes in there right now?

Two!