ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Airboy]

Must be a heachache for NHC if they should do a "NE up the coast" track or a "loop back over Florida/GOM" track.

[sponger]

GFS is just brutal!

[RickM]

This is not going to help the Zika virus situation in Florida at all. Lots of standing water will be everywhere, and not the priority to address. many folks will also have their windows and screens blown out. if there are small pocket populations of infected bugs, they will literally be transported far and wide by the storm. yeehaw

Didn't even think about that, good point.

[Syx6sic]

The news here in Norfolk va kinda already screwing up with posting this story so now everyone here is going to end up dropping their guard now

Matthew forecast models shift further south, Va. out of the picture (wavy news 10)

[ThetaE]

Not bad for having passed over two mountain ranges in the past day.

Woah! I've been gone most of the morning, and that's way better looking than I would've thought by this point. Looks like it's gotten convection more evenly balanced on all sides now. Honestly, I'm sort-of surprised Recon isn't finding any lower pressures at the moment. Perhaps they will begin to fall soon.

[NWFL56]

Anyone care to comment on how severe the situation will be around new smyrna beach? We are about 1.5 miles inland mainside and 2 blocks from the intracoastal in an 1940s block home that withstood the likes of David in 1979 when it came up the coast so I'm hopeful we will be ok.

Have you checked the surge probabilities product on the NHC website?

[tolakram]

30 frame visible loop
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-76&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

latest

[sponger]

If GFS verifies I will have to shutter. ugh!!! 5pm update will be a doozy!

[tolakram]

Wider view.

[stephen23]

Matt Appears to be tilted pretty bad right now.

[SoupBone]

Must be a heachache for NHC if they should do a "NE up the coast" track or a "loop back over Florida/GOM" track.

What could possibly track this back into the GoM? That doesn't make any sense.

[chris_fit]

Wow those are some super high/cold tops on the East side of the center. Hot towers? Definitely looks like it's strengthening IMO

[AutoPenalti]

Matt Appears to be tilted pretty bad right now.

Doesn't seem that way.

[tolakram]

Recon history, recent center fix not plotted yet.

[GCANE]

RAP is showing a big build up of CAPE and Theta-E just before sunset.
Given that Matthew will entrain it overnight and at the same time the upper troposphere cools off; could make DMAX, Thursday morning, very interesting.
Conditions are much better for intensification than if it would be anywhere in the GOM at this time.

[Jevo]

Matt Appears to be tilted pretty bad right now.

You can almost see ocean in the center on the visible, can't be tilted that much.

[stephen23]

Matt Appears to be tilted pretty bad right now.

Doesn't seem that way.

Recon showing a 25 mph difference in flight level and surface winds on center fix. That leads me to believe the storm is not 100 percent aligned at the moment. Also not dropping in pressure and has a wide open western eyewall as seen on radar as well as noted by recon. If this is incorrect then pro met please chime in.

[d3v123]

I apologize if this is a silly question, but I am a current Jacksonville resident and am wondering if I should spend today boarding up?

[Prof]

I live in Melbourne. Most of my neighbors are shuttered up. We are heading to Tampa.

[ThetaE]

Matt Appears to be tilted pretty bad right now.

Huh? I don't see any problems: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Flip through the 850, 700, and 500 mb vorticities; he seems to be stacked fine.