ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

[AdamFirst]

Meanwhile, as that freak of nature GFS ran, CMC 0z came in nearly identical to last run with a landfall around Myrtle Beach and getting spit out at Hatteras, disintegrating offshore due to merciless shear from the easterlies

[Vdogg]

Can't wait to see the cone of uncertainty from this one.

[Steve]

Meanwhile, as that freak of nature GFS ran, CMC 0z came in nearly identical to last run with a landfall around Myrtle Beach and getting spit out at Hatteras, disintegrating offshore due to merciless shear from the easterlies

It loops back, just farther east. Shows maybe a decoupling?

[galaxy401]

I can't wait for the models to show Matthew moving east in the open Atlantic, move over the Azores like Nadine, then head south to Cape Verde, then head west to the Caribbean again.

[chaser1]

OK... Greatest individual model run of all time?

I think so! haha I know its not funny, I mean thats a strong cane ( the 2nd time too) but what the... cmon now.

WTF??? I just came on for the first time in hours; figured I'd catch up real quick before heading down to Miami to help board up 2 homes, then get out of dodge. IS THIS GFS RUN SOMEONE'S IDEA OF A JOKE?? So not only do we have a major hurricane where its tumor drops more rain than the core of the hurricane itself, but now its learned how to bowl and is already planning to take out the remaining 10-pin (Florida) in the second frame for a spare!

[galaxy401]

Upcoming Euro should bring us back to reality....I hope....

[Joe Snow]

Can't wait to see the cone of uncertainty from this one.

Yeah I feel bad for they Met tasked to draw it...........LOL

[WeatherHoon]

I don't feel like sifting through all the posts. Is this a glitch or an actual possibility?

[Hurricaneman]

Upcoming Euro should bring us back to reality....I hope....

Or it could show something similar to last run and be like the GFS and if that happens oh boy it really would be like a disaster movie and then I would give up

[Aric Dunn]

why does everyone keep calling all the models "on crack" or wrong simply because they show something that seems impossible. especially when the majority of the models now show a loop of some sort.. ? just pay attention... also anyone else want to try and say a east shift ? come on..

[drewschmaltz]

I don't feel like sifting through all the posts. Is this a glitch or an actual possibility?

3 models show a loop, not just the GFS. GFS just does it with style.

[ronyan]

I don't feel like sifting through all the posts. Is this a glitch or an actual possibility?

It's possible. It's showing up in the other models also but they have it weakening a lot during the loop.

[tolakram]

I don't feel like sifting through all the posts. Is this a glitch or an actual possibility?

Unclear. The UKMET and ECMWF showed a loop of sorts in earlier runs, but weak. The GFS now shows a similar loop be deepens Matthew back to a major hurricane, which seems suspect but I honestly don't know.

[Hurricaneman]

I don't feel like sifting through all the posts. Is this a glitch or an actual possibility?

its a real possibility just look at the synoptic setup as it would lend to a loop

[SunnyThoughts]

I don't feel like sifting through all the posts. Is this a glitch or an actual possibility?

3 models show a loop, not just the GFS. GFS just does it with style.

lol very true...thats style with a capital S right there.

[Bocadude85]

0z HWRF shifts slightly west

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016100500&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

[txwatcher91]

Hard to tell on the 24 hour panels but it seems like the UKMET may have adjusted east a tiny bit?

I also find it interesting how the high resolution models like the NAM and RGEM are further east with the track.

[chaser1]

I guess we can be thankful it only goes to 384 hours.

LMAO, thats a fact!! After watching that model run loop over and over and over again..... I really think I need a cigarette (and I don't even smoke)

[WHYB630]

Have fun.