ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NWFL56]

30 frame visible loop
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-76&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

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[AutoPenalti]

The fact that this is actually moving at 320 degrees vs 340 that it's suppose to be heading at is a little concerning.

[WPBWeather]

The fact that this is actually moving at 320 degrees va 340 that it's suppose to be heading at is a little concerning.

Saw that too posted earlier. Any guesses??

[Sanibel]

Matthew has had that open gap banding before and closed it off to a near buzzsaw prior to Haiti.

[AutoPenalti]

The fact that this is actually moving at 320 degrees va 340 that it's suppose to be heading at is a little concerning.

Saw that too posted earlier. Any guesses??

Probably an interaction with the mountains of Cuba caused it to move a little off track than it was suppose to.

Of course, it could be just a wobble.

[WeatherHoon]

What direction does it appear to be moving in now?

[stephen23]

Matt Appears to be tilted pretty bad right now.

Huh? I don't see any problems: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Flip through the 850, 700, and 500 mb vorticities; he seems to be stacked fine.

I was looking at the fact that recon is finding 8mph wind at flight level while finding 31 mph wind at surface on latest center fix. This leads me to believe they are not 100 percent aligned. Is this conclusion wrong?

[sponger]

Rain has not stopped all day in Saint Augustine. Ponding water everywhere. Publix was a zoo!

[Sanibel]

Seems to be right on NHC track...

[TimeZone]

I'll bet if we had Recon in there an hour before Matthew made landfall, it would've been a cat 5 landfall. He looked absolutely incredible.

[SunnyThoughts]

I'll bet if we had Recon in there an hour before Matthew made landfall, it would've been a cat 5 landfall. He looked absolutely incredible.

Yeah, you might be right about that. Lets hope he doesn't look that amazing again, but he is looking better and better...hopefully some shear or dry air, something...will keep it from becoming stronger.

[tolakram]

WV loop.

Matthew is in a very low to no shear environment at the moment.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-75&info=wv&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

[hohnywx]

I'll bet if we had Recon in there an hour before Matthew made landfall, it would've been a cat 5 landfall. He looked absolutely incredible.

Might be upgraded in post-season analysis. Agree about his appearance.

[marye45]

first time poster here -- great site.

I have a buddy (a bone head), that is traveling down to Disney from New jersey -- driving. Looks like he'll be coming down I-95. He is expecting to roll into Orlando around 9pm tomorrow night.

Will he even make it?

I wouldn't be surprised if they close WDW like they did during Floyd.

[xironman]

Matt Appears to be tilted pretty bad right now.

Huh? I don't see any problems: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Flip through the 850, 700, and 500 mb vorticities; he seems to be stacked fine.

I was looking at the fact that recon is finding 8mph wind at flight level while finding 31 mph wind at surface on latest center fix. This leads me to believe they are not 100 percent aligned. Is this conclusion wrong?

Careful with that, the dropsonde can drift for a while and end in a bad spot. Also Matt has just undergone a transition from a small eye to a large eye. So it may be better to say "not quite consolidated" instead of "tilted" which would occur under shear which there is very little of.

[Evenstar]

For the past day you have been attempting to downplay threats to the Florida east coast. That needs to stop.

I'm not downplaying anything...asking a serious question. Quit overreacting to everything I say...

Guys we have been around here a long time. This is a time of tension for you all, I get it, but make sure to be nice...

Amen, brutha.

[Alyono]

still looks to have NW shear. Shear wasn't supposed to drop off until tomorrow

[shawn6304]

RAP is showing a big build up of CAPE and Theta-E just before sunset.
Given that Matthew will entrain it overnight and at the same time the upper troposphere cools off; could make DMAX, Thursday morning, very interesting.
Conditions are much better for intensification than if it would be anywhere in the GOM at this time.

Hey Gcane ,

Not to question you but i thought i had read previous that Dmax/Min did not affect the major hurricanes is that not accurate? or maybe just minimal effects?

[tgenius]

still looks to have NW shear. Shear wasn't supposed to drop off until tomorrow

Alyono, John Morales, the head met for NBC6 in Miami was saying earlier that Matthew was on a 320 degree heading vs 340, which would put him more WNW than NW.. do you see that, and if so, how long do you think it would keep that bearing? Could he be stair stepping?

[vbhoutex]

This is getting very interesting. If I am reading that shear map correctly Matthew he will be moving into higher shear within 24 hours. That could be a game changer if it remains strong as shown. Tell me what I am missing if I am wrong.