ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

Structure definitely looks to be improving ATM on the sat loops, upper clouds really starting to fan out very nicely, looked like a wobble north but last sat view of the loop went back to northwest, thus continuing its stair stepping towards FL.... glad I don't have a front row seat on this one...

[Portastorm]

Hey guys and gals....

Just a quick one.... my friends bro and sis in law live in Savannah GA.

They have never had to experience a storm with originally Being from the UK. They are worrying about what they should be doing.
Are they likely to be affected by Matthew and should they were boarding up the windows etc.. if so?

I know that there is probably info already on one of the pages but I have a teething baby and I am struggling to use the phone and look for relevant info.

Thanks in advance

Here is their forecast from NWS starting Thurs night. I'd say the answer is "yes, this will be impacted by Matthew."

Thursday Night: A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 71. Northeast wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, then showers after 8am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 77. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Friday Night: Hurricane conditions possible. Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 3 and 4 inches possible.

Saturday: Hurricane conditions possible. A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

[Sanibel]

Core looks more like a solid donut. My friend in Lakeland is freaking out because they live in a trailer. A pretty solid one that is more like a little house than classic trailer. They are right on the borderline of winds and I didn't know what to tell them. I told them if it stays on NHC track they should be OK.

East wobble.

[Sanibel]

Edit

[NYR__1994]

Hey guys and gals....

Just a quick one.... my friends bro and sis in law live in Savannah GA.

They have never had to experience a storm with originally Being from the UK. They are worrying about what they should be doing.
Are they likely to be affected by Matthew and should they were boarding up the windows etc.. if so?

I know that there is probably info already on one of the pages but I have a teething baby and I am struggling to use the phone and look for relevant info.

Thanks in advance

Chatham County just had a press conference and stated the following:

Chairman Al Scott, on behalf of the Board of Commissioners of Chatham County, strongly urges all citizens of Tybee Island to evacuate the Island beginning at 3:00 p.m. today.

Beginning at 8:00 a.m., Thursday, all three islands and low lying areas east of the Wilmington River are urged to evacuate. All areas in and about rivers or tributaries are also urged to evacuate.

Citizens can expect, at a minimum, gale force winds from Tybee Island to east of I-95. Weather conditions could unexpectedly deteriorate and gale force winds could increase in speed. Any person that elects not to evacuate should be prepared to ride out the storm in a secure area with three days' non- perishable provisions and adequate drinking water, given the potential for loss of power for 72 hours or greater.

[dukeblue219]

This 12z ECMWF run only reinforces my concern that people I know in Charleston are NOT taking this seriously enough. People in Florida sound like they've got their act together, and the SC governor was good to start evacs well ahead of time. But the average Joes I know in Charleston (30s to 40s in age mostly) seem to be saying "it's not coming here anymore."

Stop focusing on the exact track and consider what *could* happen.

[KWT]

Core looks more like a solid donut. My friend in Lakeland is freaking out because they live in a trailer. A pretty solid one that is more like a little house than classic trailer.

East wobble.

Yeah the inner core is sound hard to imagine it won't strengthen at a decent steady rate and probably a decent outside shot of RI happening if the northern semicricle of the system fills out a little more.

[SunnyThoughts]

Hey guys and gals....

Just a quick one.... my friends bro and sis in law live in Savannah GA.

They have never had to experience a storm with originally Being from the UK. They are worrying about what they should be doing.
Are they likely to be affected by Matthew and should they were boarding up the windows etc.. if so?

I know that there is probably info already on one of the pages but I have a teething baby and I am struggling to use the phone and look for relevant info.

Thanks in advance

Taking this latest run of the Euro model into account, I can only tell you what I would do. If I lived within 50 miles of the coast...I"d definitely be boarding up. And if I lived closer to the coast, I"d be taking a short vacation ..westward from the Coast of Ga. Maybe to Atlanta for a couple days or so.

[GCANE]

That Theta-E Ridge has been building nicely all day from solar heating.
It has now gotten a lot closer and Matthew is going to track right into.

[NYR__1994]

This 12z ECMWF run only reinforces my concern that people I know in Charleston are NOT taking this seriously enough. People in Florida sound like they've got their act together, and the SC governor was good to start evacs well ahead of time. But the average Joes I know in Charleston (30s to 40s in age mostly) seem to be saying "it's not coming here anymore."

Stop focusing on the exact track and consider what *could* happen.

This is where I feel the City of Savannah and Chatham county are missing the boat. They are basing their recommendations on the current exact track of the storm and not the cone. I think it is poor judgement to do this and adjust on the fly. At some point it becomes too late to adjust and then people are stuck when they should have been told to leave.

[meriland23]

a lot of my relatives live in the OBX area of SC .. while hurricane watching and anticipating is fascinating and enticing, I can't help but worry so much for them...partly cause we really don't know what the storm will do from now till then. If it'll be weaker or stronger..scary stuff

[ronyan]

The last northward jog has put long island into the outer core, could be pretty rough there atm.

[Aric Dunn]

given the recent convective pattern and radar. by the time recon gets there we could see a quickly intensifying hurricane approaching cat 4 again. pressure likely down 955ish..
Also an extremely hot tower just developed that should expand and help close of the eyewall again..

[ronyan]

There are now several 80-100 mph reports coming out of the Bahamas. A gust to 124 mph at Clarence Town.

[WeatherEmperor]

The last northward jog has put long island into the outer core, could be pretty rough there atm.

What are the implications of this jog on the potential impacts on east coast of Florida?

[tolakram]

Hey guys and gals....

Just a quick one.... my friends bro and sis in law live in Savannah GA.

They have never had to experience a storm with originally Being from the UK. They are worrying about what they should be doing.
Are they likely to be affected by Matthew and should they were boarding up the windows etc.. if so?

I know that there is probably info already on one of the pages but I have a teething baby and I am struggling to use the phone and look for relevant info.

Thanks in advance

They should be in contact with their local authorities who will recommend what to do. Advice from here is fine but local mets will know the area well and who / where / what is at risk.

[KC7NEC]

Lost my old login from a few years ago so starting over;

Here is my question: On the scale of actual impacts with damage, casualties, and economic loss at this point wouldn't it actually be more favorable for Matthew to come more west and make full landfall? Yes, wherever that occurs would have devastating impacts but would the land interaction help weaken Matthew enough to lessen impacts of Matthew running just off the coast for hundreds of miles at full steam as a major hurricane?

[KWT]

The last northward jog has put long island into the outer core, could be pretty rough there atm.

What are the implications of this jog on the potential impacts on east coast of Florida?

Probalby not much as it just balances out the earlier 320 motion that happened as it came out of Cuba.

Its basically doing 6 hour jogs between 320 and 350 at the moment it seems, end track should equal close to 340. Of course it IS worth while watching longer wobbles at this stage.

[Aric Dunn]

The last northward jog has put long island into the outer core, could be pretty rough there atm.

What are the implications of this jog on the potential impacts on east coast of Florida?

In general every little wobble is important at this point. but I dont think it was a jog.. the core is in the process of of rebuilding and the satellite "eye is just rotating around. radar is showing a much more stable movement.

[ronyan]

I think they may find that the wind field has expanded beyond 45 miles for hurricane force winds.