ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JKingTampa]

New flood advisory for Pinellas says 10 inches have fallen with another 1-3 for today alone. With the way training is continuing I believe sadly 1-3 could be a low ball.

[Aric Dunn]

strong band offshore sw of tampa heading that general direction with doppler velocities in the 54kts range..

[Stormcenter]

In reference to the future track of TD9 well let me just say there were many on this board who didn't have it going as far west as the NHC has it now making landfall.
That being said I think where they (NHC)have it now it more than likely where it will end up IMO.

[JaxGator]

It is stacked now finally I believe....Should begin a steady deepening from here based on forecasts. They did extend TS Warnings Westward to Destin along with the Hurricane Watch in relation to the models trending more westward with a landfall in the Panhandle NOT the Big Bend!

Yes, me too, the structure is improving as well. That's good news for the Big Bend and for folks northeast of there but I'll keep watching just in case, as Jax is still under a TS watch.

JaxGator
I replaced my aging generator today.
Just in case.

That's good that you're prepared. My family and I have been getting gas for our generator, got some food and secured loose items.

[cdavis6287]

Here's my take on the forecast..take it or leave it. I personnaly believe that track will change later tonight once this stir begins to move. That's right I do not think this storm is necessarily moving its more so wobbling with bursts of convection occurring. Once that happens I believe the models along with the forecast will once again shift eastward. The NHC in their forecast discussion stated the the forecast was very uncertain and allot has to do with the ridge to the north, so don't crack on the NHC. NHC is issuing as many warnings as possible to to the fact they know the forecast track is very uncertain. I believe landfall will happen late tomorrow night somewhere between Cedar Key Fl and Perry Fl and will generally take a ENE path across northern Fl and exit around Jacksonville or a little north and hug the cost until the Carolinas. Just my best guess but who knows!


This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Aric Dunn]

low level structure is look much much better as this new center is taking root and convection building with it.. outflow is great in all quads just still lacking on inflow from the NE, but as one met said the trough is supposed to weaken tonight allowing the inflow to improve.

[MaineWeatherNut]

In reference to the future track of TD9 well let me just say there were many on this board who didn't have it going as far west as the NHC has it now making landfall.
That being said I think where they (NHC)have it now it more than likely where it will end up IMO.

You mean TS Hermine?

[SolarBear73]

Thanks to all who responded to me. I am and always look to the resources mentioned. There are a few people here that I really trust and a response from them helped. I am grandma and not mom but I will have the boys because I am the only adult to watch or evacuate them due to parents jobs. I have them some stuff ready in case we have to leave in a hurry and have my supplies ready here in case we get stuck here. I do have family way north of here to go to. I really need to just stop the worry and trust that we are safe.

Stay prepared, continue to monitor the storm's development, stay safe.

[Nimbus]

It is stacked now finally I believe....Should begin a steady deepening from here based on forecasts. They did extend TS Warnings Westward to Destin along with the Hurricane Watch in relation to the models trending more westward with a landfall in the Panhandle NOT the Big Bend!

In my opinion not likely. East of Appalacha cola to Cedar Key.

Most of the effects are going to be on the east side of the storm so Cedar Key could still be in trouble even if they don't get the eyewall. I doubt todays NE relocation will be the new track trend but stranger things have happened.

[txwatcher91]

Part of the problem with the initial track of this system was the fact it wasn't stacked, kept encountering land, shear caused the center to reform then dissipate multiple times, etc. Despite all of this the models did a decent job with half of them pushing this into the GOM and the other half around South Florida. Now that the center is stacking and we don't have all these issues to deal with the track should follow fairly closely to what the models indicate with a margin of error in the 50-75 mile range for landfall. Things can suddenly change which is what makes weather interesting but my experience over the years has taught me to follow the models at this juncture as they have a good handle on things.

[drewschmaltz]

I was just thinking it really makes sense that there's strong model consensus on the track. It really just depends on where the trough is and where the storm is when the trough starts having an effect. Since the models are basically dealing with the same two sets of information they all come out with a similar outcome. Now it seems to me if the trough doesn't do it it's expected to do or the storm isn't where it's expected to be when the trough starts affecting it then we will have a model consensus shift. With everything that's happened so far and this center fix by recon a little south I really believe consensus will start shifting back to the right. My reasoning isn't based on much data except for the fact that I think we've seen less than expected northern motion before a eastern motion will be introduced.

Edited voice to text errors.

[karenfromheaven]

Thanks to all who responded to me. I am and always look to the resources mentioned. There are a few people here that I really trust and a response from them helped. I am grandma and not mom but I will have the boys because I am the only adult to watch or evacuate them due to parents jobs. I have them some stuff ready in case we have to leave in a hurry and have my supplies ready here in case we get stuck here. I do have family way north of here to go to. I really need to just stop the worry and trust that we are safe.

I think you'll find that with the current forecast track, the winds will be offshore in your location, and the water levels may actually fall as the storm comes ashore east of you. I used to see that happen when I lived in Panama City. The water would drain out of the bays...

[northjaxpro]

Here's my take on the forecast..take it or leave it. I personnaly believe that track will change later tonight once this stir begins to move. That's right I do not think this storm is necessarily moving its more so wobbling with bursts of convection occurring. Once that happens I believe the models along with the forecast will once again shift eastward. The NHC in their forecast discussion stated the the forecast was very uncertain and allot has to do with the ridge to the north, so don't crack on the NHC. NHC is issuing as many warnings as possible to to the fact they know the forecast track is very uncertain. I believe landfall will happen late tomorrow night somewhere between Cedar Key Fl and Perry Fl and will generally take a ENE path across northern Fl and exit around Jacksonville or a little north and hug the cost until the Carolinas. Just my best guess but who knows!

I respect your observations here, which for the most part I agree with your post.

[tigerz3030]

Yes, me too, the structure is improving as well. That's good news for the Big Bend and for folks northeast of there but I'll keep watching just in case, as Jax is still under a TS watch.

JaxGator
I replaced my aging generator today.
Just in case.

That's good that you're prepared. My family and I have been getting gas for our generator, got some food and secured loose items.

Jaxgator, are we not going to get as much now in our area/St Augustine?

[LSU2001]

Looking at the visible sat. It sure looks like she is feeling the trough now. I don't know how that will impact the eventual track but I think it is telegraphing its movement with the visible appearance now. It looks stretched out pointing to northern fla. I for one am glad to see that even though I don't wish bad weather on anyone but in my neck of the woods we cannot take any more rain/weather.
Tim

[stormlover2013]

yeah no doubt its moving now........but it looks strung out

[tigerz3030]

Here's my take on the forecast..take it or leave it. I personnaly believe that track will change later tonight once this stir begins to move. That's right I do not think this storm is necessarily moving its more so wobbling with bursts of convection occurring. Once that happens I believe the models along with the forecast will once again shift eastward. The NHC in their forecast discussion stated the the forecast was very uncertain and allot has to do with the ridge to the north, so don't crack on the NHC. NHC is issuing as many warnings as possible to to the fact they know the forecast track is very uncertain. I believe landfall will happen late tomorrow night somewhere between Cedar Key Fl and Perry Fl and will generally take a ENE path across northern Fl and exit around Jacksonville or a little north and hug the cost until the Carolinas. Just my best guess but who knows!

I respect your observations here, which for the most part I agree with your post.

Jaxpro, got my flashlights and water. What are you thinking for us in St Augustine now? Rain? Wind? Tornadoes?

[northjaxpro]

JaxGator
I replaced my aging generator today.
Just in case.

That's good that you're prepared. My family and I have been getting gas for our generator, got some food and secured loose items.

Jaxgator, are we not going to get as much now in our area/St Augustine?

In Northeast Florida, we will still be on the strong side of the system no matter where it makes landfall in North Flordia, based on the forecasted track right now. The threat of small mesoscale tornadoes, heavy rain and gusts to tropical storm force are still very possible across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia as the cyclone moves through the next 48 hours or so.

[Tuffy]

It seems that there is a sense of huge NHC track forecast changes that just haven't happened. At 5pm on Sunday the forecasted landfall was Thursday evening sometime around Steinhatchee. The most recent has it a couple of hours later and about 100 miles pretty much due west of there at Apalachicola. It bounced down as far Cedar Key, about 25 miles further east at a slightly lower latitude. It was always forecast to cross 25N at about 87-88W and approach landfall from the same direction. We just have a little slower and slightly more northerly approach.

Still, there is a lot of room for reviewing this interesting storm. Personally, I think it could be shown that it had multiple centers as long ago as Hispanola and, thus, was really confusing as those interacted with land and changing shear. The real miss was way back when it went west from the original Bahamas track, pretty typical of storms with that approach. Since the Florida straits, it has been hard to "see" with the human eye, but the models, AND NHC, have NOT deviated very much at all.

[Aric Dunn]

low level structure is much improved from earlier. quite a bit actually.