ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Recon reporting 58 KT FL wind . Slowly but surely organizing and strengthening.

Northjaxpro - not sure if we have met before but if you work for NWS then probably..

Hypothetically.. If this system keeps heading east, How long before NHC updates the trajectory? Just curious because of how dangerous this is becoming

I am with a private company which I help them in weather forecasting. I am not with the NWS directly, but do know those guys there at our NWS Jax office.

I also think we will see more adjustments to the track with time later tonight or early Friday if the trends I am seeing continue into the evening hours.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 6:55pm EDT:

[sponger]

Recon reporting 58 KT FL wind . Slowly but surely organizing and strengthening.

Northjaxpro - not sure if we have met before but if you work for NWS then probably..

Hypothetically.. If this system keeps heading east, How long before NHC updates the trajectory? Just curious because of how dangerous this is becoming

I am with a private company which I help them in weather forecasting. I am not with the NWS directly, but do know those guys there at our NWS Jax office.

I also think we will see more adjustments to the track with time later tonigh or early Friday if the trends I am seeing continue into the evening hours.

More Cedar Keyish?

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like the LLC did a cyclonic loop once it aligned with the MLC, should continue on a NNE heading.

[tigerz3030]

Recon reporting 58 KT FL wind . Slowly but surely organizing and strengthening.

Northjaxpro - not sure if we have met before but if you work for NWS then probably..

Hypothetically.. If this system keeps heading east, How long before NHC updates the trajectory? Just curious because of how dangerous this is becoming

I am with a private company which I help them in weather forecasting. I am not with the NWS directly, but do know those guys there at our NWS Jax office.

I also think we will see more adjustments to the track with time later tonigh or early Friday if the trends I am seeing continue into the evening hours.

What kind of changes? More east again towards us? Also, does anyone have a link where I can see the latest look of Hermine?
Thanks

[tarheelprogrammer]

Man this system is really starting to look good tonight. Recon is showing it is strengthening at a good clip. Is there more recon heading into the storm right now?

[indianforever]

Recon reporting 58 KT FL wind . Slowly but surely organizing and strengthening.

Northjaxpro - not sure if we have met before but if you work for NWS then probably..

Hypothetically.. If this system keeps heading east, How long before NHC updates the trajectory? Just curious because of how dangerous this is becoming

I am with a private company which I help them in weather forecasting. I am not with the NWS directly, but do know those guys there at our NWS Jax office.

I also think we will see more adjustments to the track with time later tonight or early Friday if the trends I am seeing continue into the evening hours.

Which way?

[benh316]

Northjaxpro - not sure if we have met before but if you work for NWS then probably..

Hypothetically.. If this system keeps heading east, How long before NHC updates the trajectory? Just curious because of how dangerous this is becoming

I am with a private company which I help them in weather forecasting. I am not with the NWS directly, but do know those guys there at our NWS Jax office.

I also think we will see more adjustments to the track with time later tonigh or early Friday if the trends I am seeing continue into the evening hours.

What kind of changes? More east again towards us? Also, does anyone have a link where I can see the latest look of Hermine?
Thanks

Here is the IR for night time:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

Watch it like a hawk lol

[SEASON_CANCELED]

It sure looks like that during the past couple of hours Hermine as a whole is moving more east than north by looking at the satellite loop, might be just part of the organization.

We discussed this earlier but it was overlooked. The organization through centripetal force and cyclonic motion caused the system to wobble east much of the day.. It was probably predicted earlier that this would go further east than anticipated due to its failure to organize sooner. However now we may have an even more dangerous scenario where it has picked up intensity ANd speed as it was aimed due 90-100 degrees east by northeast... Meaning it may not turn now anywhere near projections and south Florida may be in trouble and ill-prepared. Scary

How much should I read into this? Can it really hit tampa? we aren't in the cone of doom

We might as well be all the energy is on our side.. that stupid cone moves back and forth and the NHC edits it...I would concern myself with the cone but think of the bigger picture 4 days ago the models were all in agreement about a hit on fort myers / venice..point is models are only right when they are lol

[northjaxpro]

Northjaxpro - not sure if we have met before but if you work for NWS then probably..

Hypothetically.. If this system keeps heading east, How long before NHC updates the trajectory? Just curious because of how dangerous this is becoming

I am with a private company which I help them in weather forecasting. I am not with the NWS directly, but do know those guys there at our NWS Jax office.

I also think we will see more adjustments to the track with time later tonigh or early Friday if the trends I am seeing continue into the evening hours.

More Cedar Keyish?

I never have deviated in my thinking with landfall. I am still thinking somewhere from Dixie County to Cedar Key.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 312305
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 44 20160831
225600 2510N 08812W 8409 01554 0034 +197 +172 352012 013 005 000 00
225630 2508N 08811W 8407 01557 0036 +194 +175 345013 013 007 000 00
225700 2506N 08810W 8408 01555 0036 +192 +179 352012 014 007 000 00
225730 2504N 08810W 8407 01554 0034 +194 +181 003011 011 006 001 00
225800 2502N 08809W 8407 01553 0031 +197 +180 002010 010 011 001 03
225830 2501N 08807W 8413 01551 0033 +194 +183 359007 009 006 000 03
225900 2501N 08805W 8407 01556 0035 +192 +180 016008 009 010 001 00
225930 2501N 08803W 8408 01553 0034 +192 +176 001007 008 006 000 00
230000 2501N 08801W 8407 01552 0032 +196 +162 356009 009 005 000 00
230030 2501N 08759W 8407 01554 0033 +195 +166 350008 009 006 000 00
230100 2501N 08756W 8408 01552 0033 +191 +178 333006 008 008 001 00
230130 2501N 08754W 8407 01552 0033 +194 +165 338008 009 007 000 00
230200 2501N 08752W 8407 01552 0033 +194 +161 340008 008 009 000 00
230230 2501N 08750W 8407 01553 0031 +197 +162 341007 007 011 001 03
230300 2502N 08748W 8407 01552 0030 +200 +154 337005 006 010 000 00
230330 2502N 08746W 8408 01551 0028 +202 +153 317006 006 008 000 00
230400 2503N 08744W 8408 01550 0026 +204 +153 303006 006 011 000 00
230430 2503N 08742W 8407 01552 0026 +204 +152 307006 007 011 000 00
230500 2504N 08739W 8408 01550 0030 +198 +154 330009 009 010 000 00
230530 2504N 08737W 8407 01550 0026 +201 +152 329009 010 014 000 00

[tropicwatch]

AF is up and might be able to put an end to the Sqaubling.

[chris_fit]

AF is up and might be able to put an end to the Sqaubling.

Auto Focus?

[Evil Jeremy]

Man this system is really starting to look good tonight. Recon is showing it is strengthening at a good clip. Is there more recon heading into the storm right now?

Yes, another mission took off within the past half hour.

[sponger]

I am with a private company which I help them in weather forecasting. I am not with the NWS directly, but do know those guys there at our NWS Jax office.

I also think we will see more adjustments to the track with time later tonigh or early Friday if the trends I am seeing continue into the evening hours.

More Cedar Keyish?

I never have deviated in my thinking with landfall. I am still thinking somewhere from Dixie County to Cedar Key.

That will be ugly for us!

[lando]

We discussed this earlier but it was overlooked. The organization through centripetal force and cyclonic motion caused the system to wobble east much of the day.. It was probably predicted earlier that this would go further east than anticipated due to its failure to organize sooner. However now we may have an even more dangerous scenario where it has picked up intensity ANd speed as it was aimed due 90-100 degrees east by northeast... Meaning it may not turn now anywhere near projections and south Florida may be in trouble and ill-prepared. Scary

How much should I read into this? Can it really hit tampa? we aren't in the cone of doom

We might as well be all the energy is on our side.. that stupid cone moves back and forth and the NHC edits it...I would concern myself with the cone but think of the bigger picture 4 days ago the models were all in agreement about a hit on fort myers / venice..point is models are only right when they are lol

Right? I live in TT too but have been up in Wesley chapel all day at work. I cant believe the bucs are playing tonight

[JaxGator]

So much for the dry air to save us!

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-87&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

More storms are popping on that loop. The strengthening trend is ominous.

[chris_fit]

So much for the dry air to save us!

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-87&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

More storms are popping on that loop. The strengthening trend is ominous.

So is that eastward push an illusion or really happening? I cant even tell with recon lol

[benh316]

So much for the dry air to save us!

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-87&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

More storms are popping on that loop. The strengthening trend is ominous.

Well this is what is concerning.. Assuming this system still makes landfall as far north as NHC and models agreed on, the intensity by tomorrow could be so much different, nobody will be truly prepared.

I am more disconcerted still about the ultimate track and sincerely hope I end up being wrong. If I am right - that won't be a good thing for anyone in Tampa and south

[SEASON_CANCELED]

How much should I read into this? Can it really hit tampa? we aren't in the cone of doom

We might as well be all the energy is on our side.. that stupid cone moves back and forth and the NHC edits it...I would concern myself with the cone but think of the bigger picture 4 days ago the models were all in agreement about a hit on fort myers / venice..point is models are only right when they are lol

Right? I live in TT too but have been up in Wesley chapel all day at work. I cant believe the bucs are playing tonight

What's up temple terrace!! Small town here but batten down your hatches we got a mean line coming...as far as the buccs go I don't know about predicting the storm but I can probably predict they will lose