ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

This area is experiencing near cat 3 conditions currently.

[dhweather]

Mets and experts,

If Matthew strengthens significantly, how does that impact track? West?

There is no real correlation with strengthening and direction.

The direction of a tropical cyclone is largely influenced by other factors, typically surface high pressure and upper level lows. Too much force from either one of these can lead to shear, which in turn, often leads to weakening. When you step back and take a look at the entire synoptic setup, it truly is an amazing balancing act by nature for a major hurricane to even form.

[bahamaswx]

This area is experiencing near cat 3 conditions currently.
[img]https://s18.postimg.org/t4labpiyx/avn0_lalo.gif[img]

Yep. Poor people. Most still haven't recovered from the destruction from Joaquin there last year.

[txwatcher91]

I'm seeing a clear "fist" shape in the structure which usually precedes rapid strengthening. Next 24 hours could easily see this attain category 4 status and maybe category 5. Let's hope this stays off the coast of Florida.

[meriland23]

I wouldn't be surprised if this escalates to a high cat 4 or 5. This is something I have been saying but I see it more probable now given what the radar is doing rapidly

[AdamFirst]

Anyone from Port Saint Lucie/Treasure Coast on right now? SouthFLTropics, D5? What are you guys going to do?

[lando]

A couple more runs and gfs will landfall Wpb

[Aric Dunn]

here we go.. convection wrapping almost all the way around. should see the eye close off and persistent convection over the next few hours.

[newtotex]

HUGE blow-up on IR. I'm not an expert by any means but I would imagine this indicates that RI is a possibility very soon, once that eyewall can wrap back around the SW side.

Yeah definitelythe eyewall seems to be undergoing a transformation of very deep convection, and intensification may be imminent.

Why does it look like the eye disappeared in the last few frames? Is that an EWRC?

[KC7NEC]

I'm seeing a clear "fist" shape in the structure which usually precedes rapid strengthening. Next 24 hours could easily see this attain category 4 status and maybe category 5. Let's hope this stays off the coast of Florida.

I have been theorizing that it would be better to actually hit the coast and make landfall than to stay off the coast. The more land interaction the more likely it weakens.

[KBBOCA]

@wxbrad (Brad Panovich - a Charlotte-based pro met) is tweeting out some good info, including this map of potential power outages from the storm

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/783783897209470976

[Kazmit]

HUGE blow-up on IR. I'm not an expert by any means but I would imagine this indicates that RI is a possibility very soon, once that eyewall can wrap back around the SW side.

Yeah definitelythe eyewall seems to be undergoing a transformation of very deep convection, and intensification may be imminent.

Why does it look like the eye disappeared in the last few frames? Is that an EWRC?

Covered by a blow up of convection. If anything, that indicates strengthening.

[meriland23]

Convection precedes rapid strengthening of a storm. Don't mind the eye, focus on the wrapping of sudden convection. The eye will be much more apparent in a hour or two

[bahamaswx]

HUGE blow-up on IR. I'm not an expert by any means but I would imagine this indicates that RI is a possibility very soon, once that eyewall can wrap back around the SW side.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/AAFmNvR.gif[img]

Yeah definitelythe eyewall seems to be undergoing a transformation of very deep convection, and intensification may be imminent.

Why does it look like the eye disappeared in the last few frames? Is that an EWRC?

Just intense convection obscuring the eye at the upper levels on IR. It hasn't collapsed---not at all.

[SunnyThoughts]

@wxbrad (Brad Panovich - a Charlotte-based pro met) is tweeting out some good info, including this map of potential power outages from the storm

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/783783897209470976

Passed a TON of Power trucks on I10 headed Eastbound when out here in Pensacola today. Help is on the way.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS slight west shift again and slightly faster, getting closer and closer to Palm Beach County each run it seems.

[Exalt]

I'm seeing a clear "fist" shape in the structure which usually precedes rapid strengthening. Next 24 hours could easily see this attain category 4 status and maybe category 5. Let's hope this stays off the coast of Florida.

Same fist structure we saw the first run it made for Cat 5, yet this time it looks so much more organized and doesn't have to go from TS strength, it's already a Cat 3. That convection is wrapping scarily fast, to see it go from a jumbled mess to second bomb out within a few hours really just completely blows my mind.

[RL3AO]

I hope I'm wrong, but that just screams that quick or rapid intensification is underway.

[GeneratorPower]

Can you say "explosive deepening"? Because that is what is occurring.

[dhweather]

While rapid intensification is certainly not out of the picture, the available energy for Matthew as he traverses the Bahamas is not nearly as plentiful as it was south of Cuba and Haiti.