ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

I have the odd feeling that I'm gonna wake up to at least a solid Cat 4 tomorrow.

[sikkar]

Can some one revive the recon thread?

Thanks,,

[SunnyThoughts]

I'm seeing a clear "fist" shape in the structure which usually precedes rapid strengthening. Next 24 hours could easily see this attain category 4 status and maybe category 5. Let's hope this stays off the coast of Florida.

Same fist structure we saw the first run it made for Cat 5, yet this time it looks so much more organized and doesn't have to go from TS strength, it's already a Cat 3. That convection is wrapping scarily fast, to see it go from a jumbled mess to second bomb out within a few hours really just completely blows my mind.

I've seen 2 or 3 mets ( on other weather sites) predicting He COULD reach cat 5 again tonight at some point. They all think the storm is intensifying right now...may take a few hours, but lots of lightning around the Core..and expanding.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://i.imgur.com/lndZGQQ.gif

I hope I'm wrong, but that just screams that quick or rapid intensification is underway.

New burst kicking off in the last frame, looks like south side of the center.

[RL3AO]

While rapid intensification is certainly not out of the picture, the available energy for Matthew as he traverses the Bahamas is not nearly as plentiful as it was south of Cuba and Haiti.

It became a category 5 in the yellows.

[Exalt]

While rapid intensification is certainly not out of the picture, the available energy for Matthew as he traverses the Bahamas is not nearly as plentiful as it was south of Cuba and Haiti.

Thing is it doesn't need nearly as much energy to go through RI, as this time it's only making its run with a head start at Cat 3, and the structure of a post landfall Cat 3 as well. It's not like it needs the energy of last time when it went from naked swirl to Cat 5.

Also, the previous quoter is correct, Matthew went Cat 5 in the yellow.

[stormreader]

I'm seeing a clear "fist" shape in the structure which usually precedes rapid strengthening. Next 24 hours could easily see this attain category 4 status and maybe category 5. Let's hope this stays off the coast of Florida.

You are exactly right. Could very well be rapid intensification in next 24 hours. I think it's very reasonable to expect a 150 mph hurricane landfall. Where?? West Palm Beach???

[KBBOCA]

Given the crazy loop-de-loop the recent models have been doing, I have to confess this tweet made me laugh.

I know it's a serious situation for folks in the Bahamas, FL, GA & SC right now... but I hope a quick chuckle might just help provide added strength for the days ahead.

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/783775408500137984

[Exalt]

My current curiosity is if Matthew will really weaken as much as the GFS says it will while it makes that turn for a second FL landfall and a run at the Gulf. If it maintains hurricane strength it could easily redevelop in the Gulf making for a very scary situation, as we've seen that this storm loves to bomb out.

[dhweather]

While rapid intensification is certainly not out of the picture, the available energy for Matthew as he traverses the Bahamas is not nearly as plentiful as it was south of Cuba and Haiti.

It became a category 5 in the yellows.

And it also did not have to traverse and blues or greens. While the Bahamas do not have the mountainous terrain like Haiti, it is still land, which is difficult on a tropical cyclone.

What is particularly concerning with Matthew is, should he run parallel with the Eastern Florida coast, he would not be cut off completely from energy, so there is potential for a very large area of damage.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I once saw a TV special years ago that stated a major hurricane hitting the West Palm Beach area would be extremely costly, due in large part to the high property values found there.

[tolakram]

Plane just made another center pass

[RL3AO]

What is particularly concerning with Matthew is, should he run parallel with the Eastern Florida coast, he would not be cut off completely from energy, so there is potential for a very large area of damage.

Yes but that is a depth of the 26C isotherm map. The reason the 26C isotherm is less than 25 meters is because the ocean is less than 25 meters deep. But its 25 meters deep with 29C water.

[ZX12R]

Can you say "explosive deepening"? Because that is what is occurring.

I think you could very well be correct. Matthew grabbed that last convection burst and almost immediately wrapped it.

[SunnyThoughts]

[bob rulz]

While rapid intensification is certainly not out of the picture, the available energy for Matthew as he traverses the Bahamas is not nearly as plentiful as it was south of Cuba and Haiti.

The yellow regions provide more than enough energy for RI and cat 5 (not saying this will be cat 5 but it can't be ruled out either).

I haven't been as vigorous about tracking the tropics as I used to be (big hobby of mine starting in high school) but I know that a "fist" like that pretty much always means RI is imminent. How strong it will get is the question.

The best hope for Florida is that it undergoes an EWRC right before landfall/skirting the coast.

[RL3AO]

And it also did not have to traverse and blues or greens. While the Bahamas do not have the mountainous terrain like Haiti, it is still land, which is difficult on a tropical cyclone.

What is particularly concerning with Matthew is, should he run parallel with the Eastern Florida coast, he would not be cut off completely from energy, so there is potential for a very large area of damage.

Here's the heat content map. Yes the water isn't as deep, but it's plenty warm. The storm is moving fast enough where a lack of deep warm water will not impact it too much.

[stormreader]

Saw a lot of crap out in the tropics this season, but we've got the real deal headed for Fl now. I felt pretty confident even a week ago that Mathew would be influenced by the ridge and track over the keys and up the Wesr Coast of Fl. Not likely now. But I was right about the ridging and it's becoming increasing likely that there will be a Fl landfall, and perhaps in S Fl. Palm Beach County may be in the cross hairs. There was an extremely powerful strike there in 1928. Seems like pressure was about 27.4 for that one.

[stephen23]

Per last recon Fix it appears storm current heading is at 330 degrees.

[SunnyThoughts]

AF plane getting closer. I trust their readings more than NOAA, just always have. Probably shouldn't feel that way, but I do.