ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

It's not intensifying yet. I was just commenting that it has the appearance of many storms that I've seen quickly intensify in the hours following. Usually when the ring of -80C convection wraps all the way around the center.

[Alyono]

Unfortunately, but what we expected, the death toll is quickly climbing in Haiti

[Raebie]

Those are outflow boundaries, from previously-collapsed squalls. They're not a sign of strengthening, they mean that an area of squalls has collapsed. These outflow boundaries are often seen around a weakening storm.

I'm confused by that statement because Matthew is gaining strength.

Key word in my response was "often". Outflow boundaries are often (not always) a sign of a weakening storm.

ThankS. What are your current on thoughts...is he intensifying, just trying to reorganize?

[Raebie]

Those are outflow boundaries, from previously-collapsed squalls. They're not a sign of strengthening, they mean that an area of squalls has collapsed. These outflow boundaries are often seen around a weakening storm.

I'm confused by that statement because Matthew is gaining strength.

What are you basing that on?

Board hysteria. Lol. JK. Seems to be getting much better organized and poised to intensify. Is that better?

[Exalt]

I'm confused by that statement because Matthew is gaining strength.

Key word in my response was "often". Outflow boundaries are often (not always) a sign of a weakening storm.

ThankS. What are your current on thoughts...is he intensifying, just trying to reorganize?

The storm is very much intensifying/reorganizing as shown by satellite images, it's attempting to reclose the eyewall, and has much stronger convection than it did right out the gate at Cuba.

[northjaxpro]

It's not intensifying yet. I was just commenting that it has the appearance of many storms that I've seen quickly intensify in the hours following. Usually when the ring of -80C convection wraps all the way around the center.

It may take a few hours before we see pressures fall off within the eyewall. But, I agree RL3AO that eventually withat deep convection wrapping all around in the eyewall, that intensification will occure soon.

[swampgator92]

How about it is reorganizing?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

The last images show a much more classic hurricane shape. It just needs the eye to pop out. It's possible that the wind field is expanding and that is reducing the maximum winds since they are being spread over a much larger area.

[Soonercane]

So it appears to be weakening based on recon, that is great news for the folks in Florida... The question is will it continue?

[SunnyThoughts]

[WPBWeather]

So it appears to be weakening based on recon, that is great news for the folks in Florida... The question is will it continue?

Not likely, unfortunately for us in FL.

[Aric Dunn]

It's not intensifying yet. I was just commenting that it has the appearance of many storms that I've seen quickly intensify in the hours following. Usually when the ring of -80C convection wraps all the way around the center.

It may take a few hours before we see pressures fall off within the eyewall. But, I agree RL3AO that eventually withat deep convection wrapping all around in the eyewall, that intensification will occure soon.

with the new hot towers developing on both the east as west side .. the eyewall is nearly closed..

[ZX12R]

I'm confused by that statement because Matthew is gaining strength.

What are you basing that on?

Board hysteria. Lol. JK. Seems to be getting much better organized and poised to intensify. Is that better?

Yeah, that's the ticket! It is "poised" to intensify.

[RL3AO]

So it appears to be weakening based on recon, that is great news for the folks in Florida... The question is will it continue?

I would be really surprised if that isn't a short term blip.

[dhweather]

I'm confused by that statement because Matthew is gaining strength.

What are you basing that on?

Board hysteria. Lol. JK. Seems to be getting much better organized and poised to intensify. Is that better?

lol - if that was the case, you should have called Matthew a Cat 6.

Outflow from the center seems impeded on the northern side. For any significant intensification to occur, this needs to change. Good outflow in all directions is one of the things you look for.

[Raebie]

What are you basing that on?

Board hysteria. Lol. JK. Seems to be getting much better organized and poised to intensify. Is that better?

Yeah, that's the ticket! It is "poised" to intensify.

Thought that might get me off the hot seat. Lol.

[ronyan]

If the reports coming out of the Bahamas are reliable, it is at minimum 110 mph. There is no large weakening trend I don't believe, especially because the islands have not been in the strongest part near the center.

[floridasun78]

i have say what a week we have storm fl not seen snice andrew their warring for years fl due for cat 4 for years look nina help this hurr we want slow start season now we all east coasts going crazy

[weathermimmi]

I have a question related to Orlando. My son goes to school at UCF and his workplace is not making a decision to close the business until Thursday. What is the guesstimate of winds since Orlando is 60 miles inland if he stays. I think its too late to get in the traffic on Thursday?

[xironman]

Northern outflow is impeded? Where is all that cirrus going?

[syfr]

I've read the summaries from Avila for years (I don't know if it's a HE or a SHE) . These summaries are some of the best organized most clearly stated commentaries that are produced by NHC. Every word counts in these messages and he/she produces very precise information in very organized format.

Well done, Forecaster Avila!