ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ZX12R]

Unfortunately, but what we expected, the death toll is quickly climbing in Haiti

Not surprising. Did everyone see the images posted here, pointing out the deforestation? Incredible. They are too poor to afford heating and cooking fuel, so they turned their forests into firewood and charcoal! Eventually, what are they going to do? A horrible situation.

[Arsynic]

I'm seeing a clear "fist" shape in the structure which usually precedes rapid strengthening. Next 24 hours could easily see this attain category 4 status and maybe category 5. Let's hope this stays off the coast of Florida.

You are exactly right. Could very well be rapid intensification in next 24 hours. I think it's very reasonable to expect a 150 mph hurricane landfall. Where?? West Palm Beach???

If that's the case, the city will have to be renamed "West" because there will be no palms nor a beach...

[CronkPSU]

I have a question related to Orlando. My son goes to school at UCF and his workplace is not making a decision to close the business until Thursday. What is the guesstimate of winds since Orlando is 60 miles inland if he stays. I think its too late to get in the traffic on Thursday?

UCF is a lot closer than 60 miles from the coast...I live just south of that in Avalon Park, we will be getting hurricane force winds, no one is really evacuating though from him, we should be fine

[Aric Dunn]

eyewall not open south but much more convection around the eye nearly closed

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... OAA-3-.kmz

[ronyan]

I've read the summaries from Avila (I don't know if it's a HE or a SHE) but the summaries that are posted are some of the best organized most clearly stated commentaries that are produced by NHC. Every word counts in these messages and he/she produces very precise information in very organized format.

Well done, Forecaster Avila!

He is to the point, but pretty terse. I always preferred Franklin's style.

[RL3AO]

I've read the summaries from Avila (I don't know if it's a HE or a SHE) but the summaries that are posted are some of the best organized most clearly stated commentaries that are produced by NHC. Every word counts in these messages and he/she produces very precise information in very organized format.

Well done, Forecaster Avila!

Lixion Avila. He's a Cuban-American senior hurricane specialist, dancing aficionado (salsa I think), and quite the character.

[onlooker]

And he has his own Wikipedia page at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lixion_Avila.

[wxmann_91]

eyewall not open south but much more convection around the eye nearly closed

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... OAA-3-.kmz

Looks to me like there's a secondary wind maximum associated with an outer eyewall. Could still be feeling the effects of NW shear still, which might linger until this approaches Abaco.

[dhweather]

Northern outflow is impeded? Where is all that cirrus going?

Compare it to the Southern half.

[sandy18]

On the Weather Channel just now the meteorologist was talking about Nicole and how she can possibly interfere with the track of Matthew but he did not go into detail does anyone know how the Nicole can possibly mess with this track?

[ronyan]

eyewall not open south but much more convection around the eye nearly closed

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... OAA-3-.kmz

Looks to me like there's a secondary wind maximum associated with an outer eyewall. Could still be feeling the effects of NW shear still, which might linger until this approaches Abaco.

Hurricane Ike developed a persistent double wind maxima after striking Cuba. But this also led to a very large wind field. Not sure that is a good outcome.

[Dean4Storms]

USGS is putting out 300+ surge monitors out ahead of Mathew, you will be able to monitor in real time 20+ of them at this link....

http://stn.wim.usgs.gov/fev/

[Sanibel]

Outer band showing up in bright late day sun with rainbow to SE from Sanibel Causeway. Light NE winds.

[Dean4Storms]

I think we will see a larger eye with the broadening pressure field.

[Sanibel]

On the Weather Channel just now the meteorologist was talking about Nicole and how she can possibly interfere with the track of Matthew but he did not go into detail does anyone know how the Nicole can possibly mess with this track?

I believe Fujiwara tandem drives the left storm slightly west and south. But Nicole probably isn't strong enough.

[WeatherHoon]

Doesn't look that healthy to me. Really can't tell if it's strengthening, weakening, or what.

[Michele B]

Gah that looks like it's on a b-line for south Florida, hopefully it curves, Metro Miami-FTL-PB is just millions of people packed into a narrow strip of land, that would be a nightmare. As awful as this sounds IF it's going to skirt/landfall somewhere a more rural, I say rural relatively, like Brevard would be better an Metro Miami. Who knows how many people have actually evacuated down

there

That's the big white elephant in the room
You cannot evacuate the Florida east coast
Really getting worried
Boarded up southern exposure
Praying

Arcadia is JAMMED packed with east coast cars, so they ARE evacuating

[TheStormExpert]

Fortunately according to recon Matthew doesn't seem to be intensifying or deepening at the moment, but there is a chance it could attain some extra strength as it approaches SE or East-Central FL. WPBF 25 News in West Palm Beach is going a little overboard IMO with saying this could be Florida's worst storm in history or the worst since Andrew.

[CourierPR]

[quote="Aric Dunn"]eyewall not open south but much more convection around the eye nearly closed

Aric, does Matthew appear to be on a heading closer to WNW?

[galaxy401]

It's possible Matthew still quite can't get it's inner core repaired yet due to the Cuba crossing, kinda like Ike.