ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Exalt]

convection wraped all the way around and increasing..

the circular eye is beginning to clear out

That looks spooky, and I ain't just sayin that cause it's October.

[swampgator92]

Check out the last few frames. The eye is going to pop out soon. It also appears to be heading more WNW to correct for the more northern job we saw a few hours ago.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[NWFL56]

Unfortunately, but what we expected, the death toll is quickly climbing in Haiti

Do we know how bad yet? Have authorities gotten to outlying areas yet?

[SouthDadeFish]

There are some very strange things happening with the outflow to the north, which may be one of the reasons why the storm is struggling to intensify despite seemingly otherwise favorable conditions. It almost looks like there is some northerly shear present, but that isn't supported by the most recent CIMSS analysis.

[adam0983]

This storm is not weakening and in fact looks the best it has all day. Does anyone think Hurricane Matthew can make a landfall in Boca Raton?

[Nimbus]

USGS is putting out 300+ surge monitors out ahead of Mathew, you will be able to monitor in real time 20+ of them at this link....

http://stn.wim.usgs.gov/fev/

There is one on a pier leg off Daytona beach that might capture the surge in the area of highest forecast onshore winds.

[dhweather]

There are some very strange things happening with the outflow to the north, which may be one of the reasons why the storm is struggling to intensify despite seemingly otherwise favorable conditions. It almost looks like there is some northerly shear present, but that isn't supported by the most recent CIMSS analysis.

Perplexing, isn't it?

[ronjon]

So safe to this is another media overhyped storm?

Not sure what you mean but this is the real deal. Look at the destruction in Cuba where it came ashore. Huge gaping holes in missionary walls...junks of concrete littered across the road. Rooftops gone. Combination storm surge and wind. Anybody in an evacuation zone near sea level - get out!!!! Storm surge of 5-8 feet now predicted from Sebastian inlet to St Augustine now.

[ConvergenceZone]

I still think it will make a run at a Cat 5 before landfall. It has a ton of time to still do do

[Dean4Storms]

Hi, long time lurker here. I was wondering if anyone had an idea how severe the winds will get in Jacksonville. I am listening to the news, and they just said they are estimating 40-60 mph winds for our city. higher on the beaches. Is that an accurate estimate? I am in a rental house about 15 miles inland from the beach that has no shutters for the windows. I have fully prepared other than the shutters. Trying to decide if It will be safe to stay here. Thanks for any advice.

Depends if it is right on the Coastline or offshore by a good bit. If it is along the Coastline you could easily see winds at least in gusts in heavy convection well over hurricane strength if it is still a Cat. 3 or 4. I would get out if you don't feel safe and secure.

[Hammy]

There are some very strange things happening with the outflow to the north, which may be one of the reasons why the storm is struggling to intensify despite seemingly otherwise favorable conditions. It almost looks like there is some northerly shear present, but that isn't supported by the most recent CIMSS analysis.

There's a clear northerly flow, though not particularly strong, but still fairly easy to see on water vapor loop.

[Nimbus]

Unfortunately, but what we expected, the death toll is quickly climbing in Haiti

Do we know how bad yet? Have authorities gotten to outlying areas yet?

Over in the DR they have some concrete bunkers in the mountains to shelter.
I guess you could survive on fruit drop after the storm for a couple weeks if you were able to shelter in place safely.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I still think it will make a run at a Cat 5 before landfall. It has a ton of time to still do do

Yeah I personally think this gets to a strong cat 4 and makes a run at cat 5. We shall see though.

[marye45]

So safe to this is another media overhyped storm?

Not sure what you mean but this is the real deal. Look at the destruction in Cuba where it came ashore. Huge gaping holes in missionary walls...junks of concrete littered across the road. Rooftops gone. Combination storm surge and wind. Anybody in an evacuation zone near sea level - get out!!!! Storm surge of 5-8 feet now predicted from Sebastian inlet to St Augustine now.

I don't think it's over hyped at all. I just hope it's not going to be bad.

[Batt2fd]

[WeatherHoon]

Check out the last few frames. The eye is going to pop out soon. It also appears to be heading more WNW to correct for the more northern job we saw a few hours ago.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

Still looks like it's moving NW to NNW to me. Then again, it's really hard to tell when you're only able to see a few frames.

[terstorm1012]

There are some very strange things happening with the outflow to the north, which may be one of the reasons why the storm is struggling to intensify despite seemingly otherwise favorable conditions. It almost looks like there is some northerly shear present, but that isn't supported by the most recent CIMSS analysis.

There's a clear northerly flow, though not particularly strong, but still fairly easy to see on water vapor loop.

you have an amazing eye cause i didn't even catch that.

it's not strengthening right now---let's hope that continues. I worry it will get its act together though.

[cjrciadt]

[ronjon]

There are some very strange things happening with the outflow to the north, which may be one of the reasons why the storm is struggling to intensify despite seemingly otherwise favorable conditions. It almost looks like there is some northerly shear present, but that isn't supported by the most recent CIMSS analysis.

There's a clear northerly flow, though not particularly strong, but still fairly easy to see on water vapor loop.

I also think some of the southerly inflow is being cutoff from the eastern Cuban mountains. As it moves further away, this shouldn't be an issue.

[northjaxpro]

Hi, long time lurker here. I was wondering if anyone had an idea how severe the winds will get in Jacksonville. I am listening to the news, and they just said they are estimating 40-60 mph winds for our city. higher on the beaches. Is that an accurate estimate? I am in a rental house about 15 miles inland from the beach that has no shutters for the windows. I have fully prepared other than the shutters. Trying to decide if It will be safe to stay here. Thanks for any advice.

I am here in Jacksonville and all this is going to depend just how close the eyewall will come and then pass within the Northeast Florida coast. The forecast is for the eyewall to come within 30-40 miles of Jacksonville Beach. Should that manifest, hurrucane conditions willbe experienced from about the I-95 corridor east to the coast with regards to Matthew's closest approach here. I think 40-60. mph sustajned winds will be likely just inland and points to the the St.Johns River .