ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Center still elongated NW to SE

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Saved shortwave IR loop

The entire system pushed east. Wether it's a trend or not who knows we won't know till 3 am. Let the wobble wars begin.

Important to note on model accuracy we should of been lifted north by now

[Evil Jeremy]

Winds picking up as recon heads deeper in to the SE quad:

005630 2446N 08617W 8427 01533 0055 +165 +151 206054 054 037 009 00
005700 2445N 08616W 8430 01529 0054 +167 +149 204054 055 038 009 00
005730 2444N 08615W 8426 01535 0057 +166 +147 205056 057 038 009 00
005800 2443N 08613W 8431 01531 0061 +160 +146 204054 054 037 009 03
005830 2442N 08612W 8430 01533 0061 +160 +147 205055 056 034 009 00
005900 2441N 08611W 8432 01532 0060 +162 +145 207056 057 032 010 00
005930 2440N 08610W 8429 01534 0059 +164 +154 204054 057 034 009 00
$$
;

[BRweather]

Off-topic some, but I feel this is important.

I am watching TWC and they are showing demonstrations on sandbags and stacking them to stop flood waters.

If anyone seeing this is doing the sandbag method, 2 weeks ago I was in a group effort to save 2 homes from the flood waters in Louisiana. We saved the houses, but sandbags are not the solution to stopping the water. We had a wall of 5000 sandbags surrounding one of the homes 4 feet high several layers thick with visqueen in the middle going all the way to the ground. The visqueen was under the sandbags once to the ground. We felt confident.

Even with all the hours we spent, none of it mattered if we did not have WATER PUMPS that were capable of pumping our hundreds of gallons of water out an hour. Make sure you have water pumps because sandbags can only help push the water back but it will not solve the entire solution. Just something to keep in mind

[Dean4Storms]

Center is at the NW edge of the convection cloud, still has some organizing to do!

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010059
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 15 20160901
005000 2500N 08631W 8432 01517 0051 +167 +167 196047 048 045 015 00
005030 2459N 08630W 8427 01521 0054 +165 +165 197047 049 043 019 00
005100 2458N 08629W 8428 01523 0059 +162 +162 201046 048 041 023 00
005130 2457N 08628W 8435 01520 0053 +161 +161 208050 052 039 020 00
005200 2456N 08627W 8425 01531 0059 +161 +161 205045 052 039 013 00
005230 2454N 08626W 8433 01522 0061 +155 +155 195045 045 043 011 00
005300 2453N 08625W 8429 01526 0049 +163 +158 194043 045 042 008 00
005330 2452N 08624W 8434 01518 0044 +167 +157 194047 048 043 006 03
005400 2451N 08622W 8430 01526 0047 +168 +153 198052 054 038 007 00
005430 2450N 08621W 8426 01528 0047 +170 +152 201054 055 039 004 00
005500 2449N 08620W 8434 01524 0051 +169 +150 201053 054 036 005 00
005530 2448N 08619W 8422 01537 0054 +164 +150 204053 054 036 005 00
005600 2447N 08618W 8433 01526 0053 +164 +150 205054 054 034 008 03
005630 2446N 08617W 8427 01533 0055 +165 +151 206054 054 037 009 00
005700 2445N 08616W 8430 01529 0054 +167 +149 204054 055 038 009 00
005730 2444N 08615W 8426 01535 0057 +166 +147 205056 057 038 009 00
005800 2443N 08613W 8431 01531 0061 +160 +146 204054 054 037 009 03
005830 2442N 08612W 8430 01533 0061 +160 +147 205055 056 034 009 00
005900 2441N 08611W 8432 01532 0060 +162 +145 207056 057 032 010 00
005930 2440N 08610W 8429 01534 0059 +164 +154 204054 057 034 009 00
$$
;

57 kt FL.

[hurricaneCW]

Organization is going to be a very slow process. You probably have to wait 12 hours before landfill for it to really intensify. I'll be shocked if she becomes a hurricane.

Just my opinion of course though the NHC seems to agree. Interestingly enough models show it being much stronger as it gets near the mid-atlantic with the help of trough phasing.

[deltadog03]

I agree if this is a temporary movement or what if at least makes you think it's moving east. Lol. Recon gonna be critical tonight.

Recon has shown that it's pushed back N or Nw it appears. It's looking like the blob might be rotating around the LLC??

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like the MLC is displaced maybe 10 miles or so to the SE of the LLC, LLC is tracking NNE.
Stop being fooled by upper level swirling clouds, they are not the surface circulation.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at both the FL and SFMR winds and earlier data, I would estimate an intensity of 50 kt.

[RL3AO]

I'm sure many of you will be surprised to hear that the Euro, GFS, and official forecast errors so far have pretty much all been less than the size of the "cone of uncertainty" (horizontal black line). Now don't get me wrong, the forecasts haven't been great. After all, the cone encompasses 67% of all track errors, but the idea the models have been an unmitigated disaster since advisories start is actually absurd when you look at statistics.

[JaxGator]

Center is at the NW edge of the convection cloud, still has some organizing to do!

New convection is almost upon it. Those winds are more stronger.

[GeneratorPower]

Is rapid scan satellite up? Can someone post a link?

[stormreader]

Center still elongated NW to SE

Yes. The elongation is due to the influence and pull of the trough SW to NE. That should also be the general direction of the storm itself. But as of now, that is not the case.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree if this is a temporary movement or what if at least makes you think it's moving east. Lol. Recon gonna be critical tonight.

Recon has shown that it's pushed back N or Nw it appears. It's looking like the blob might be rotating around the LLC??

I believe Recon found an elongated surface circulation getting tangled with the MLC and took pressure readings at each end which had everyone flipping out that the center jumped east when in reality they are seeing the MLC which remains SE of the LLC.

[deltadog03]

Looks like the MLC is displaced maybe 10 miles or so to the SE of the LLC, LLC is tracking NNE.
Stop being fooled by upper level swirling clouds, they are not the surface circulation.

Agreed. Recon proved this is moving N or NNE and not rotating eastward. Amazing how sat images will fool you. It's done it too me many times. Lol

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Models had the trough lifting this north 12 hours ago. Something clearly did not go right

[deltadog03]

I'm sure many of you will be surprised to hear that the Euro, GFS, and official forecast errors so far have pretty much all been less than the size of the "cone of uncertainty" (horizontal black line). Now don't get me wrong, the forecasts haven't been great. After all, the cone encompasses 67% of all track errors, but the idea the models have been an unmitigated disaster since advisories start is actually absurd when you look at statistics.

Great point!! Ty for posting

[CrazyC83]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 010103
XXAA 51018 99251 70866 08156 99004 25414 18047 00036 25014 17549
92720 21611 18547 85453 18407 20545 88999 77999
31313 09608 80047
61616 AF307 1109A HERMINE OB 06
62626 MXWNDBND MBL WND 18051 AEV 33236 DLM WND 19048 003843 WL150
17550 082 REL 2509N08662W 004713 SPG 2512N08662W 004929 =
XXBB 51018 99251 70866 08156 00004 25414 11850 18407 22843 17200
21212 00004 18047 11971 18055 22933 18546 33874 20049 44855 20545
55843 20545
31313 09608 80047
61616 AF307 1109A HERMINE OB 06
62626 MXWNDBND MBL WND 18051 AEV 33236 DLM WND 19048 003843 WL150
17550 082 REL 2509N08662W 004713 SPG 2512N08662W 004929 =
;

Dropsonde: 1004mb / 47 kt surface winds.

[robbielyn]

Saved shortwave IR loop

The entire system pushed east. Wether it's a trend or not who knows we won't know till 3 am. Let the wobble wars begin.

Important to note on model accuracy we should of been lifted north by now

You all see how it lights up ffrom pinellas county southward? well I live in hernando county just north of pasco county and its not lighted up. my question is when the heavy rains and squall line in pinellas and even pasco makes it up to us, why is it weakening as it moves north? radr goes from orange and yellows down there to dark blue (moderate and steady rainfall) in hernando. is the air more stable or drier up here? please I would like to know. cuz it does make it up this far north just significantly weaker and lighter precip. no wind at all in squalls either.I wouldnt know by listening to the rain outside there was anything more than fl rain so far.