ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Canelaw99]

Um.....what is this???? Big area of yuck off my shore!

[ronyan]

Yes, maybe a combination of the northerly flow and recent disruption of the Cuban mountains caused some weakening this afternoon. I wouldn't expect that to continue as we get into tonight and tomorrow.

[northjaxpro]

Hi, long time lurker here. I was wondering if anyone had an idea how severe the winds will get in Jacksonville. I am listening to the news, and they just said they are estimating 40-60 mph winds for our city. higher on the beaches. Is that an accurate estimate? I am in a rental house about 15 miles inland from the beach that has no shutters for the windows. I have fully prepared other than the shutters. Trying to decide if It will be safe to stay here. Thanks for any advice.

I am here in Jacksonville and all this is going to depend just how close the eyewall will come and then pass within the Northeast Florida coast. The forecast is for the eyewall to come within 30-40 miles of Jacksonville Beach. Should that manifest, hurrucane conditions willbe experienced from about the I-95 corridor east to the coast with regards to Matthew's closest approach here. I think 40-60 mph sustained winds will be likely just inland and to areas along the St.Johns River .

[ronyan]

Another intense blowup happening on the northern half on IR. To me a weakening storm doesn't display this type of pattern. I would think it is a brief structural phase that will subside shortly.

[WeatherHoon]

:eek:

What ugly model is this?

[otowntiger]

Fortunately according to recon Matthew doesn't seem to be intensifying or deepening at the moment, but there is a chance it could attain some extra strength as it approaches SE or East-Central FL. WPBF 25 News in West Palm Beach is going a little overboard IMO with saying this could be Florida's worst storm in history or the worst since Andrew.

I don't think that's going overboard at all. If this eyewall rides the length of Florida's coastline. The damage will be horrific

Horrific would be if it were a true cat 4 storm. The devastation would depend greatly on the strength of the storm and indications are that it is not nearly as powerful as it once was and may not recover. Granted that could change but I think its had plenty opportunity to do so by now and hasn't. But if this stayed as weak as it is now and followed the projected path while still damaging it would not be catastrophic or even horrific, in my opinion.

[gpickett00]

USGS is putting out 300+ surge monitors out ahead of Mathew, you will be able to monitor in real time 20+ of them at this link....

http://stn.wim.usgs.gov/fev/

Dean,

What do you type into the input box when you initially go to that link? How do you watch them in real-time?

[ConvergenceZone]

Um.....what is this???? Big area of yuck off my shore!

Wow, I didn't realize it was that close to the coast already...

[northjaxpro]

Also, all the major bridges will be closed down I am sure in Jax during the storm.

[ronyan]

Well that forecast is 14 hr into the future.

[RL3AO]

:eek:

[ ihttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuCdEoJWIAAO_AL.jpg[/img]

What ugly model is this?

The storm is now within the domain of the HRRR which is a national 3 km mesoscale model that updates every hour.

[Canelaw99]

ConvergenceZone, it's not yet. That's why I want to know what that is

[WeatherHoon]

I think you guys should add some context or a description when it comes to posting images like that^. Could easily spook many people.

[Raebie]

Um.....what is this???? Big area of yuck off my shore!

Wow, I didn't realize it was that close to the coast already...

It's not. That's a model pic.

[Evil Jeremy]

Also, all the major bridges will be closed down I am sure in Jax during the storm.

I might be evacuating after all. UNF will decide tomorrow whether to close campus housing. I was planning on riding Matthew out but I might have to drive over to Tampa.

[otowntiger]

I still think it will make a run at a Cat 5 before landfall. It has a ton of time to still do do

I would be very surprised at this point. That would be a 3 category jump in one night in less than perfect conditions.

[Canelaw99]

The storm is now within the domain of the HRRR which is a national 3 km mesoscale model that updates every hour.

A model of where it's going?? I'm not familiar with the HRRR mesoscale model

[terstorm1012]

HRRR is a newer model---I like it. It did a good job with Hermine on its approach to Florida, pretty much nailed the quick windup.

[WeatherHoon]

:eek:

What ugly model is this?

The storm is now within the domain of the HRRR which is a national 3 km mesoscale model that updates every hour.

Is it reliable?

[Aric Dunn]

radar showing pretty much a closed eyewall and its thickenig.
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif