ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

Um.....what is this???? Big area of yuck off my shore!

Wow, I didn't realize it was that close to the coast already...

It's not. That's a model pic.

what dir have models moving ?

[abajan]

I have to say I really enjoyed Avila's discussion this afternoon. Laying-out the key points as a list, in plain language, is a great way to communicate the message. Kudos to the NHC!

Agreed but it's only just occurred to me that it might be better to list the key messages right at the top of the discussion instead of at the bottom of it, for the benefit of the of the TL;DR crowd.

[RL3AO]

The storm is now within the domain of the HRRR which is a national 3 km mesoscale model that updates every hour.

A model of where it's going?? I'm not familiar with the HRRR mesoscale model

It makes a 15 hour model forecast every hour. It's generally used to forecast severe weather (tornadoes etc). Not sure how much of a use it will be but it will make pretty pictures.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I use the HRRR alot here in houston, its scary how accurate it is at times lol.

[swampgator92]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783814256898736128

[dukeblue219]

The storm is now within the domain of the HRRR which is a national 3 km mesoscale model that updates every hour.

A model of where it's going?? I'm not familiar with the HRRR mesoscale model

Well, I suppose all models are models of where a storm is going. The HRRR is a short term model that is generally something you'd use for "nowcasting," as in "how much more rain am I going to get before the storm is past?" Or, "what's that big band of storms about to do?" You wouldn't use it for determining where a system is going to develop in 7 days. It's high resolution and rapidly refreshed. Hence HRRR

[ConvergenceZone]

Well that forecast is 14 hr into the future.

Oh okay thanks lol. My phone wouldn't allow me to enlarge the image to see the details

[floridasun78]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783814256898736128

ok this doom for south fl and dade, broward that send us in miami into cazy if come ture

[JaxGator]

Despite what Recon is showing, the convection continues to wrap around (though Recon is very helpful). Thank goodness it hasn't strengthened today but that can change. Stay safe everyone who's in the path or will get effects.

[La Sirena]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783814256898736128

If that came true I would have hope they would move Miami into a hurricane warning.

[tolakram]

latest

[johngaltfla]

Also, all the major bridges will be closed down I am sure in Jax during the storm.

Guarantee it. We close our bridges when winds hit 45 mph. Jax is going to get a pretty good whack Friday night as the storm moves north. Daytona looks for now to be the bullseye. Good luck up there guys!

[tolakram]

ir loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-75&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

[johngaltfla]

Also, all the major bridges will be closed down I am sure in Jax during the storm.

I might be evacuating after all. UNF will decide tomorrow whether to close campus housing. I was planning on riding Matthew out but I might have to drive over to Tampa.

Unless you have family here, I would look to the panhandle. Sarasota/Bradenton/Port Charlotte reports on the news tonight say 99% booked already.

[Hamanard]

Winds per recon seemed to have weakened considerably. Seemed like AF and NOAA were in the eye at pretty much the same time.

[ConvergenceZone]

If we wake up tomorrow and it's 130mph or higher, then I think it definitely has a shot of attaining Cat 5 status

[terstorm1012]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783814256898736128

If that came true I would have hope they would move Miami into a hurricane watch.

honestly given the highrises, I wish they had too. winds are higher at elevation (I forget the formula off hand. but I think that's why my aunt in Aventura decided to go elsewhere. I think she's in a highrise condo and I remember they got whacked in Wilma.)

[Weatherhorse]

The storm is now within the domain of the HRRR which is a national 3 km mesoscale model that updates every hour.

A model of where it's going?? I'm not familiar with the HRRR mesoscale model

Well, I suppose all models are models of where a storm is going. The HRRR is a short term model that is generally something you'd use for "nowcasting," as in "how much more rain am I going to get before the storm is past?" Or, "what's that big band of storms about to do?" You wouldn't use it for determining where a system is going to develop in 7 days. It's high resolution and rapidly refreshed. Hence HRRR

Could someone post a link to the HRRR site in proximity to Matthew? I went to the NOAA HRRR page and was

[CrazyC83]

Based on the most recent Recon data, I would drop it slightly to 95 kt right now.

[Hammy]

How likely at this point are Cat 4 conditions in Brevard/Volusia?