ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WeatherEmperor]

Forgive me if its not the appropriate time to say this but it looks like the 11 year major hurricane drought will end. Looks very likely a FL landfall will happeb.


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[SunnyThoughts]

[tolakram]

Gah, that's harder to read than the plain version.

000
URNT12 KNHC 060003
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142016
A. 05/23:39:00Z
B. 22 deg 58 min N
075 deg 56 min W
C. 700 mb 2775 m
D. 76 kt
E. 281 deg 12 nm
F. 010 deg 76 kt
G. 281 deg 15 nm
H. 962 mb
I. 12 C / 2980 m
J. 17 C / 3048 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C18
N. 1234 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2514A MATTHEW OB 07
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 103 KT 058 / 19 NM 23:44:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 210 / 8 KT
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 282 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[dukeblue219]

Some of the recent posts would almost lead one to believe that Matthew is close to becoming an open wave. Folks, this is still one large and dangerous storm and it could still grow stronger. Beware!

The reason I posted what I did (with actual recon numbers), is to counteract the pages of other posters talking about bombing and rapid intensification. Of course there is still a risk of that happening. I can not in any way predict that the storm will or won't turn back into a cat 4 or 5 monster. But it is not even close right now, at 8PM EDT. Preparations underway should, of course, continue.

[Alyono]

Winds per recon seemed to have weakened considerably. Seemed like AF and NOAA were in the eye at pretty much the same time.

They're not finding much evidence of winds above 85kts at the surface honestly. The latest dropsonde from the AF mission was in the W eyewall and had a peak gust (well above the surface) of 92kt. Surface wind measurement was 61kt.

It's odd in that the storm *looks* very convective on satellite and is in favorable conditions, but neither the pressure nor the winds seem to have noticed. The NHC may be hard pressed to keep this a cat3 at 11pm unless something changes.....

see above. 95kt sustained from the Bahamas. SFMR confirms this

[jlauderdal]

Nothing about this looks weak to me IMO..

latest

doesnt look weak to me either...looks impressive

[JaxGator]

NOAA Recon radar indicates that the eyewall is now closed. It's safe to say to me that strengthening should commence in the next few hours. Stay alert!

[dukeblue219]

see above. 95kt sustained from the Bahamas. SFMR confirms this

Yep I see the brand new 94kt SFMR measurement. That's the highest in quite some time. The storm *looks* strong as all hell -- no argument there.

[tolakram]

[RL3AO]

NOAA Recon radar indicates that the eyewall is now closed. It's safe to say to me that strengthening should commence in the next few hours. Stay alert!

We've had two VDMs in the past 20 minutes that said it was partially open.

[Hammy]

I've been looking at the mid/upper level flow, and how the cloud pattern tends to point towards movement--is it possible at all that this just shoots straight through the Bahamas on a NNW movement from where it's at, rather than bending westward first?

[gatorcane]

Weak? I think not

[psyclone]

It does look a little squashed on its northern side. seems like something is impinging on it.

[JaxGator]

NOAA Recon radar indicates that the eyewall is now closed. It's safe to say to me that strengthening should commence in the next few hours. Stay alert!

We've had two VDMs in the past 20 minutes that said it was partially open.

It is? Sorry, don't want to spread mis-information. It looked closed on TWC when they last showed it but I guess not (yet anyway).

[stormsurf]

The storm looks like it's recovered well. Can anyone tell if it's on track or not. On the beach in south Palm Beach County and trying to weigh our options. We can go 3 miles inland in one scenario and 8 in the other however scenario 1 is much better. Unless you've ever evacuated, many people have no idea. My office is open for business tomorrow. Some people are surprised I wont be there. Can anyone imagine? Good luck to everyone and be safe. The weather next week will be beautiful.

[WPBWeather]

I've been looking at the mid/upper level flow, and how the cloud pattern tends to point towards movement--is it possible at all that this just shoots straight through the Bahamas on a NNW movement from where it's at, rather than bending westward first?

That would be the Hail Mary pass I am hoping for! Go Hammy!

[weathermimmi]

I have a question related to Orlando. My son goes to school at UCF and his workplace is not making a decision to close the business until Thursday. What is the guesstimate of winds since Orlando is 60 miles inland if he stays. I think its too late to get in the traffic on Thursday?

UCF is a lot closer than 60 miles from the coast...I live just south of that in Avalon Park, we will be getting hurricane force winds, no one is really evacuating though from him, we should be fine

Thanks, that is what he is telling me. I fear for him getting in traffic and I will watch the boards from here on out.

[tolakram]

This was dropped near the center.

Product: Bathythermal Data (SOFX01 KWBC)
Date Profile Data was Processed: October 5th, 2016 at 22:35:32Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number: 14L in 2016 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
AXBT Buoy Drop (Airborne eXpendable Bathythermograph)

Profile Date: October 5th, 2016
Profile Time: 22:29:00Z

Profile Coordinates: 22.913N 75.745W
Profile Location: 174 statute miles (280 km) to the NE (53°) from Camagüey, Cuba.

AXBT Channel: 14

Sea Surface Temperature: 29.49°C (85.1°F)
Depth of 26°C Isotherm: 126 m (413 ft)
Deepest Depth of AXBT: 403.5 m (1,324 ft)

[FLpanhandle91]

In my opinion, once the eye warms and this last flare up of convection wraps around the southern eye wall, this storm will quickly ramp back up to cat 4 with over A DAY AND A HALF left in a very favorable environment. Today consisted of a lot of Matthew fighting to close off its eye wall and develop his core again. Based on satellite, I'd say this is almost done.

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif

[abajan]

I apologize if this is a dumb question but do TC's tend to weaken at all as they go through the bahamas?

That's not a dumb question! Since the Bahamas are very low lying, with their highest point being (the most inappropriately named) "Mount" Alvernia that's only 206 ft above sea level, and the total land area of the islands is only 5,358 square miles, any weakening effect on cyclones would be minuscule.