ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

USGS is putting out 300+ surge monitors out ahead of Mathew, you will be able to monitor in real time 20+ of them at this link....

http://stn.wim.usgs.gov/fev/

Dean,

What do you type into the input box when you initially go to that link? How do you watch them in real-time?

Where it says "Select an Event" you will click there and once they get this setup you will be able to Click on Hurricane Mathew 2016 and it should give you the ones you can watch.
Not sure when the exact time will be that they have it set and ready to go, I suspect tomorrow.

[terrapintransit]

That looks absolutely frightning and hinting at an eye..

Plane going back towards the center. Eyewall may be closed.

[Hammy]

I would be extremely careful using the HRRR in a tropical situation.

HRRR did quite well with Hermine IIRC.

It actually did not do that well. It had Hermine going in the direction of Mobile/Pensacola for several runs.

So left track bias in both cases?

[Exalt]

I would be extremely careful using the HRRR in a tropical situation.

HRRR did quite well with Hermine IIRC.

It actually did not do that well. It had Hermine going in the direction of Mobile/Pensacola for several runs.

Thing is even so, the RI it's forecasting seems extremely plausible considering the progress Matthew's made today and the time it has before landfall. The only thing in significant contention is the westerly jog the HRRR takes him, changing the landfall location quite a bit, and introducing a possible westerly crossover into the GOM.

[ronyan]

It seems that HRRR might be better for modeling intensity as opposed to track, but I don't know a lot about that particular model.

[ronjon]

Matt looking very impressive on IR SAT.

[delta lady]

Hrrr bringing eyewall into Miami

https://t.co/QS3RHd3HS3?ssr=true

Is a trip up I-95 looking like the most likely outcome with this?

I-95 hugs the coast. I would take the turnpike inland. Tolls have been lifted.

[Kazmit]

Looks way stronger than a borderline Cat 3 right now.

[stormreader]

:eek:

 https://twitter.com/mikewdross/status/783823641838489600

Did you notice what looked like a little west jog on that forecast track before landfall. I hope people at the extreme southern end of the warned area are ready because I think landfall in Fl won't be up toward the space coast but much further south.

[gatorcane]

Hrrr bringing eyewall into Miami

https://t.co/QS3RHd3HS3?ssr=true

Is a trip up I-95 looking like the most likely outcome with this?

Perhaps or A1A....

[Weatherboy1]

Well, it took seven hours but house is all shuttered and supplies are all stocked for Matthew here in northern PBC. Did most of my buying two days ago - and very thankful for that! Satellite view looks very impressive - will have to see if Recon obs eventually catch up.

took me 8 but had to take multiple breaks including a 30 min siesta...weather was hot and sunny..30 mins after completion we were hit with a downpour..mother nature usually gives the day before for preps and it did today

It was crazy hot - I think I drank about 5 gallons of water and Gatorade! Lol. And we had our first rain 5 minutes after I tightened the bolts on the last set of shutters. Hunkered down and ready to go.

[RL3AO]

It seems that HRRR might be better for modeling intensity as opposed to track, but I don't know a lot about that particular model.

I have no reason to trust it for either. I'd give it some attention when it comes to forecasting a tornadic supercell or a large MCS (bow echo). Of course it hasn't been around long enough to have had many chances to verify with TCs.

[terstorm1012]

HRRR runs every hour I think, right?

[Aric Dunn]

local weather guy just said its at 150 mph lol

[ronjon]

Even the global models are deepening the storm by 20 mb over the next 24 hrs.

[RL3AO]

local weather guy just said its at 150 mph lol

Theres many many posts starting with "local weather guy" that have made me shake my head.

[Exalt]

:eek:

 https://twitter.com/mikewdross/status/783823641838489600

Did you notice what looked like a little west jog on that forecast track before landfall. I hope people at the extreme southern end of the warned area are ready because I think landfall in Fl won't be up toward the space coast but much further south.

Yes, this is the current point of contention with the HRRR, which none of the other models really show. Also gives a frightening thought of it possibly not going north at all and it just carrying on west.

[stormreader]

Hrrr bringing eyewall into Miami

https://t.co/QS3RHd3HS3?ssr=true

Seems to bring the storm extreme WNW rather than NW or N, looks like it's poised to make more than just a graze off the coast, looks like it wants to dig in.

Yes. May very well make landfall further south than expected. Was thinking West Palm Beach (still am), but wouldn't be surprised at Ft Lauderdale.

[ZX12R]

That looks absolutely frightning and hinting at an eye..

Plane going back towards the center. Eyewall may be closed.

"Poised"

[Exalt]

That looks absolutely frightning and hinting at an eye..

Plane going back towards the center. Eyewall may be closed.

"Poised"

This honestly needs to be coined as the most used word for this season, just from this storm alone..