ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

If there is any good news to report, it's that per recon, the East side of the storm is quite a bit weaker than the W and NW side of the storm.

Say what?

I've been staring at the screen too much today. LOL. I got it backwards, fixed, thank you sir!!! I had good intentions, believe me, I just didn't get it out right.

[caneseddy]

One potential major concern. If this does come inland near Palm Beach, tidal surge over Lake Okeechobee could be very bad

That could be a repeat of the 1928 okeechobee hurricane ☹️️

You know the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane was the same storm as the San Felipe Hurricane which devastated Puerto Rico. Taking both of those landfalls into account it truly has to be one of the very most important hurricanes of the 20th century. I believe I read where the dike at Okeechobee is much improved from 1928.

Someobe correct me if I'm wrong but I believe I read somewhere that during Wilma the water almost surged over the dikes..again please correct me if I'm wrong

[stephen23]

Matthew still isn't strengthening per latest past. Pressures around 960mb.

960 mb would be a 2mb drop in last pass but I have yet to see a vortex message from this pass. Plotted looks like they missed the center and are making a sharp turn

Dropsonde shows 961mb.

Yeah I see that now. So practically no deepening yet.

[bahamaswx]

Point of information: In order for this to qualify as a landfall, must the entire eye come onshore, or only the center of circulation?

That's what I was going to ask. What is the exact definition of landfall?

The center of the eye has to cross land.

[abajan]

Low-level structure of Hurricane Matthew looks to be improving. Almost a closed cyan ring (classic cyan ring would be thicker on SW side to my understanding). For those unfamiliar with microwave imagery, a cyan ring around the eye is a harbinger of rapid intensification.

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/statu ... 2233958400

Coming from a meteorologist, that's disconcerting. Just can't shake the feeling it's going to be much stronger by the time its eye gets onshore somewhere along Florida's coast. I'm thinking 140 mph sustained. That's how strong Luis was when it hit Antigua, and the damage was tremendous. Luis was a larger hurricane, though.

[gatorcane]

Wow continues to grow in size, very symmetric too:

[HurrMark]

Moss Town sustained 117 mph G 142. That may be some evidence there of strengthening if the station is reliable.

Where are you seeing this?

[Sanibel]

Still on NHC track I would say...

[northjaxpro]

Hi, long time lurker here. I was wondering if anyone had an idea how severe the winds will get in Jacksonville. I am listening to the news, and they just said they are estimating 40-60 mph winds for our city. higher on the beaches. Is that an accurate estimate? I am in a rental house about 15 miles inland from the beach that has no shutters for the windows. I have fully prepared other than the shutters. Trying to decide if It will be safe to stay here. Thanks for any advice.

I am here in Jacksonville and all this is going to depend just how close the eyewall will come and then pass within the Northeast Florida coast. The forecast is for the eyewall to come within 30-40 miles of Jacksonville Beach. Should that manifest, hurrucane conditions willbe experienced from about the I-95 corridor east to the coast with regards to Matthew's closest approach here. I think 40-60. mph sustajned winds will be likely just inland and points to the the St.Johns River .

. I was in Orlando 2004 for Charlie, Frances and Jeanne all in a 31 day time span. Horrendous power outages, even though we had underground utilities. Now that I'm in Jax what scares the bejesus out of me is the fact that you don't have underground utilities. Everything is above ground. A direct hit on this city would be catastrophic for the downed power lines alone. Let's not even talk about the trees. To get a chainsaw after Charlie hit, I had to call a nephew in Fort Lauderdale to meet me halfway on the turnpike.

Yes, excellent observations you made. Yeah, doned power lines are going to be a huge concern diring and immediately after the storm. Downed trees will be a major problem as well, especially with all the heavy rain we have had these past few dsys. The satuated ground will cause many trees to get toppled.

[Nate-Gillson]

Post from AmericanWX as to the possible reason why Matthew isn't strengthening yet.

"Yeah I can't see an serious intensification occurring until it gets further away from Cuba. I think tomorrow morning is when the structure will have a chance to return."

[terstorm1012]

Not sure I'd call Lake Okeechobee overflowing a tidal surge but more of a flood. Also the levee that surrounds the lake would have to overtop and/or breach. Last I heard it wasn't in the best of shape and the Lake was full...

[ZX12R]

Point of information: In order for this to qualify as a landfall, must the entire eye come onshore, or only the center of circulation?

That's what I was going to ask. What is the exact definition of landfall?

The center of the eye has to cross land.

Thank you, bahamaswx. Much appreciated. I love this place.

[ronyan]

Moss Town sustained 117 mph G 142. That may be some evidence there of strengthening if the station is reliable.

Where are you seeing this?

via wunderground from the airport there: https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fi ... HAMAS&MR=1

[northjaxpro]

I am here in Jacksonville and all this is going to depend just how close the eyewall will come and then pass within the Northeast Florida coast. The forecast is for the eyewall to come within 30-40 miles of Jacksonville Beach. Should that manifest, hurrucane conditions willbe experienced from about the I-95 corridor east to the coast with regards to Matthew's closest approach here. I think 40-60. mph sustajned winds will be likely just inland and points to the the St.Johns River .

. I was in Orlando 2004 for Charlie, Frances and Jeanne all in a 31 day time span. Horrendous power outages, even though we had underground utilities. Now that I'm in Jax what scares the bejesus out of me is the fact that you don't have underground utilities. Everything is above ground. A direct hit on this city would be catastrophic for the downed power lines alone. Let's not even talk about the trees. To get a chainsaw after Charlie hit, I had to call a nephew in Fort Lauderdale to meet me halfway on the turnpike.

Yes, excellent observations you made. Yeah, downed power lines are going to be a huge concern diring and immediately after the storm. Downed trees will be a major problem as well, especially with all the heavy mrain we have had these past few days. The saturated ground will cause many trees to get toppled.

[Alyono]

Low-level structure of Hurricane Matthew looks to be improving. Almost a closed cyan ring (classic cyan ring would be thicker on SW side to my understanding). For those unfamiliar with microwave imagery, a cyan ring around the eye is a harbinger of rapid intensification.

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/statu ... 2233958400

Coming from a meteorologist, that's disconcerting. Just can't shake the feeling it's going to be much stronger by the time its eye gets onshore somewhere along Florida's coast. I'm thinking 140 mph sustained. That's how strong Luis was when it hit Antigua, and the damage was tremendous. Luis was a larger hurricane, though.

I'm going with 145 mph tomorrow evening not too far from Palm Beach

[delta lady]

One potential major concern. If this does come inland near Palm Beach, tidal surge over Lake Okeechobee could be very bad

Tidal surge over Lake Okeechobee? Now that's funny. Swamp creatures, you need to evacuate!!!

[bahamaswx]

Nassau is now in the dark. Island-wide blackout.

[SouthDadeFish]

One potential major concern. If this does come inland near Palm Beach, tidal surge over Lake Okeechobee could be very bad

Tidal surge over Lake Okeechobee? Now that's funny. Swamp creatures, you need to evacuate!!!

It's not as funny as you think. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurricane

[Nate-Gillson]

Nassau is now in the dark. Island-wide blackout.

I saw that on Twitter. Brett Adair is in Nassau. HurricaneJosh is there too.

[WPBWeather]

Low-level structure of Hurricane Matthew looks to be improving. Almost a closed cyan ring (classic cyan ring would be thicker on SW side to my understanding). For those unfamiliar with microwave imagery, a cyan ring around the eye is a harbinger of rapid intensification.

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/statu ... 2233958400

Coming from a meteorologist, that's disconcerting. Just can't shake the feeling it's going to be much stronger by the time its eye gets onshore somewhere along Florida's coast. I'm thinking 140 mph sustained. That's how strong Luis was when it hit Antigua, and the damage was tremendous. Luis was a larger hurricane, though.

I'm going with 145 mph tomorrow evening not too far from Palm Beach

Barring a miracle, I believe you will be pretty close to being right about that, even though I am not far from PB>