ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Skogebo]

I have a on topic but perhaps odd little question. How will Matthew affect the algae bloom I have read so much about? Will it make it worse, unchanged or perhaps better?

I'm new here but have been lurking for a few weeks. I want you all to know how much I appreciate reading your posts. I really have learned a lot here.

[ronyan]

No one should joke about Lake Okeechobee given what happened there in 1928. One of the most deadly.

[Blown Away]

That could be a repeat of the 1928 okeechobee hurricane ☹️️

You know the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane was the same storm as the San Felipe Hurricane which devastated Puerto Rico. Taking both of those landfalls into account it truly has to be one of the very most important hurricanes of the 20th century. I believe I read where the dike at Okeechobee is much improved from 1928.

Someobe correct me if I'm wrong but I believe I read somewhere that during Wilma the water almost surged over the dikes..again please correct me if I'm wrong

I witnessed a weed line 1/3 of the way up on the inside of the dike in Pahokee... Wasn't about to breach, but there were many leaks on the dike that were repaired following Frances/Jeanne/Wilma...

[txwatcher91]

Anyone notice how the cirrus on the north side of the CDO is basically stationary and not expanding outward? What would the reason for that be?

[ZX12R]

Wow continues to grow in size, very symmetric too:

It seems to me you are describing a storm that is super-"poised" to unleash it's wrath on Florida. Yes?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dropsonde shows 101 knots at the surface.

[StrongWind]

Years ago I saw a graphic that dynamically showed the predicted wind field as the hurricane moved along the track. Is there something like this for Matthew?

[JaxGator]

Wow continues to grow in size, very symmetric too:

You're right gatorcane. That doesn't look good and after looking at the NWS Jax Hurricane Local Statement, it sadly doesn't seem far off. Glad it didn't do much today but it's making up for lost time.

[Bob R]

Not sure I'd call Lake Okeechobee overflowing a tidal surge but more of a flood. Also the levee that surrounds the lake would have to overtop and/or breach. Last I heard it wasn't in the best of shape and the Lake was full...

There was an article in the PB Post today referencing how Lake Okeechobee was "uncomfortably high". According to the Army Corp of Engineers there is "no imminent danger the the aging dike around shallow lake will breach". Lake level on Tuesday was 15.78 feet, which is over the preferred target of 14 feet. An inspection of the dike on Tuesday found no new concerns. There are some areas of ongoing seepage, per the article.

Also per the article: the "aging dike" is felt to be one of the worst in the entire country and vulnerable to storms with high winds.

Hope nothing breaks....

[Blown Away]

Wow continues to grow in size, very symmetric too:

Looks more WNW last few frames... Crazy wobble watching from this point... Ugh

[Alyono]

Models didn't have this doing much today. it was overnight and tomorrow when the intensification was always forecast to occur. This is stronger than the models were forecasting it to be now

[supercane4867]

Surface observations and dropsonde data confirm Matthew remains at CAT3 intensity.

I think any weakening occurred earlier this evening was entirely due to inner core cycles and only strengthening should be expected from now on

[JKingTampa]

Wow continues to grow in size, very symmetric too:

Looks more WNW last few frames... Crazy wobble watching from this point... Ugh

I'm afraid in the end this could end up taking the western path out of the consensus. A hit straight up interior Florida would cause significant impacts to both coasts; and since Matthew's birth, I believe he has a bad habit of following the western side of the tracks.

[Portastorm]

Rather sobering ...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Models didn't have this doing much today. it was overnight and tomorrow when the intensification was always forecast to occur. This is stronger than the models were forecasting it to be now

Yup. Looks like on the models the storm doesn't really start to intensify until it gets to Nassau.

[TheStormExpert]

No doubt this is regaining itself tonight, not good!

[delta lady]

. I was in Orlando 2004 for Charlie, Frances and Jeanne all in a 31 day time span. Horrendous power outages, even though we had underground utilities. Now that I'm in Jax what scares the bejesus out of me is the fact that you don't have underground utilities. Everything is above ground. A direct hit on this city would be catastrophic for the downed power lines alone. Let's not even talk about the trees. To get a chainsaw after Charlie hit, I had to call a nephew in Fort Lauderdale to meet me halfway on the turnpike.

Yes, excellent observations you made. Yeah, downed power lines are going to be a huge concern diring and immediately after the storm. Downed trees will be a major problem as well, especially with all the heavy mrain we have had these past few days. The saturated ground will cause many trees to get toppled.

It's not the saturated ground that scares me. Have you ever seen a pine tree that got bended to the ground and then uprighted in a different direction , creating a loop in the tree trunk? Charlie.... I wish I had taken a picture. That's called wind...

[TJRE]

GOES-13
01:30 UTC (talk about road rage)

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

[gatorcane]

Loop showing pinhole eye:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[ronyan]

Thank you, I was about to ask for T#'s
Starting to look pretty good on Dvorak.