ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OverlandHurricane]

That's what I was going to ask. What is the exact definition of landfall?

The center of the eye has to cross land.

Thank you, bahamaswx. Much appreciated. I love this place.

Ditto, thank you very much.

[ConvergenceZone]

Glad to see the Weather Channel in 24 hour coverage mode. Normally I don't care for the weather channel, but their hurricane coverage and updates is where they really shine

[bg1]

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/color_lrg/latest.jpg

GOES-13
01:30 UTC (talk about road rage)

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

It looks like it's at the bottom of a slanted rectangle of clouds.

[dukeblue219]

Glad to see the Weather Channel in 24 hour coverage mode. Normally I don't care for the weather channel, but their hurricane coverage and updates is where they really shine

Ditto that I don't care for what TWC has become, but I still miss it for live storm coverage. Verizon dropped it from FiOS in favor of the Accuweather Channel. Haven't checked to see what they do during landfall...

[Blown Away]

Rather sobering ...

8pm was 23N/76W... Wouldn't those 001500 UTC lat/longs suggest WNW?

[Blinhart]

OK time for people to start guessing where landfall will be (if at all), and wind speed and pressure.

I'm going with either Lauderdale or Miami, winds around 165, pressure around 940.

[ConvergenceZone]

I know a Cat 5 hasn't been mentioned by the NHC or even on the weather channel at all, but does anyone think this has a "chance" of hitting a low end Cat 5 for a short time before all is said and done?

[ronyan]

Although I'm not a professional, I agree with the forecast of 145 mph. Conditions look good from here over the next 24-36

[ZX12R]

Glad to see the Weather Channel in 24 hour coverage mode. Normally I don't care for the weather channel, but their hurricane coverage and updates is where they really shine

What is the relationship between landfall and where Cantore goes? I've seen it referred to, but don't understand it. Do storms seem to make landfall where he is? Or vice-a-versa?

[RL3AO]

I know a Cat 5 hasn't been mentioned by the NHC or even on the weather channel at all, but does anyone think this has a "chance" of hitting a low end Cat 5 for a short time before all is said and done?

A chance? Sure. I'd put it maybe around 15 or 20%.

[Soonercane]

I know a Cat 5 hasn't been mentioned by the NHC or even on the weather channel at all, but does anyone think this has a "chance" of hitting a low end Cat 5 for a short time before all is said and done?

Probably not it doesn't have a lot of time until it hits Florida and appears to be having structural problems... I think Cat 2 is most likely at landfall with Cat 3 also possible

[marye45]

Glad to see the Weather Channel in 24 hour coverage mode. Normally I don't care for the weather channel, but their hurricane coverage and updates is where they really shine

What is the relationship between landfall and where Cantore goes? I've seen it referred to, but don't understand it. Do storms seem to make landfall where he is? Or vice-a-versa?

I might be wrong but hasn't TWC kept him out of harms way since he was in Gulfport and was in the middle of the Katrina Storm surge?

[GeneratorPower]

I know a Cat 5 hasn't been mentioned by the NHC or even on the weather channel at all, but does anyone think this has a "chance" of hitting a low end Cat 5 for a short time before all is said and done?

A chance? Sure. I'd put it maybe around 15 or 20%.

I think a 50% chance is more than fair. It's already been a Cat 5 previously and it's moving over very favorable areas.

[Blinhart]

I know a Cat 5 hasn't been mentioned by the NHC or even on the weather channel at all, but does anyone think this has a "chance" of hitting a low end Cat 5 for a short time before all is said and done?

A chance? Sure. I'd put it maybe around 15 or 20%.

Why are you putting the chances so low?? With the high heat content of the water and really no high land to hurt it, too little of time?

[ronyan]

Eye is becoming more defined now.

[ronyan]

I know a Cat 5 hasn't been mentioned by the NHC or even on the weather channel at all, but does anyone think this has a "chance" of hitting a low end Cat 5 for a short time before all is said and done?

A chance? Sure. I'd put it maybe around 15 or 20%.

Why are you putting the chances so low?? With the high heat content of the water and really no high land to hurt it, too little of time?

The chance for a 5 generally is low 15-20% is quite alarming actually.

[hipshot]

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/color_lrg/latest.jpg

GOES-13
01:30 UTC (talk about road rage)

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

It looks like it's at the bottom of a slanted rectangle of clouds.

Yeah, I noticed that too, kind of weird.

[Blinhart]

I know a Cat 5 hasn't been mentioned by the NHC or even on the weather channel at all, but does anyone think this has a "chance" of hitting a low end Cat 5 for a short time before all is said and done?

Probably not it doesn't have a lot of time until it hits Florida and appears to be having structural problems... I think Cat 2 is most likely at landfall with Cat 3 also possible

STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS??????? what are you watching? No way will it drop down to a Cat 2 before landfall. lowest it will be is a high end Cat 3.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I know a Cat 5 hasn't been mentioned by the NHC or even on the weather channel at all, but does anyone think this has a "chance" of hitting a low end Cat 5 for a short time before all is said and done?

Probably not it doesn't have a lot of time until it hits Florida and appears to be having structural problems... I think Cat 2 is most likely at landfall with Cat 3 also possible

My bet is 105 knots at landfall/closest approach. Could be proven wrong, of course, but that's just how I see it.

[ronyan]

That would be the strongest cat 2 you ever saw.