ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[delta lady]

Yes, excellent observations you made. Yeah, downed power lines are going to be a huge concern diring and immediately after the storm. Downed trees will be a major problem as well, especially with all the heavy mrain we have had these past few days. The saturated ground will cause many trees to get toppled.

It's not the saturated ground that scares me. Have you ever seen a pine tree that got bended to the ground and then uprighted in a different direction , creating a loop in the tree trunk? Charlie.... I wish I had taken a picture. That's called wind...

But what really impressed me about this website? I was online and someone saw the right shift of Charlie before the mainstream media reported it.

[txwatcher91]

I don't think we have a pinhole eye. I think what we are seeing is it's starting to slowly clear out in part of the eye giving the illusion of a pinhole eye. It'll probably be about the size of the one right before landfall in Haiti.

[WPBWeather]

I know a Cat 5 hasn't been mentioned by the NHC or even on the weather channel at all, but does anyone think this has a "chance" of hitting a low end Cat 5 for a short time before all is said and done?

Probably not it doesn't have a lot of time until it hits Florida and appears to be having structural problems... I think Cat 2 is most likely at landfall with Cat 3 also possible

My bet is 105 knots at landfall/closest approach. Could be proven wrong, of course, but that's just how I see it.

My bet is closer to Alyono--near 145. Too many indicators moving that way.

[gatorcane]

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[Nederlander]

Glad to see the Weather Channel in 24 hour coverage mode. Normally I don't care for the weather channel, but their hurricane coverage and updates is where they really shine

What is the relationship between landfall and where Cantore goes? I've seen it referred to, but don't understand it. Do storms seem to make landfall where he is? Or vice-a-versa?

I might be wrong but hasn't TWC kept him out of harms way since he was in Gulfport and was in the middle of the Katrina Storm surge?

Generally speaking if Cantore is in your town... Enjoy the breeze. Even in his heyday, he typically missed the eye.

Also, looks like Nassau is in big trouble.

[RL3AO]

On 2nd thought maybe that 15-20% should more closer to 25 or 30%.

[ZX12R]

OK time for people to start guessing where landfall will be (if at all), and wind speed and pressure.

I'm going with either Lauderdale or Miami, winds around 165, pressure around 940.

Miami 980 150

[Vdogg]

Rather sobering ...

8pm was 23N/76W... Wouldn't those 001500 UTC lat/longs suggest WNW?

The eye has been slightly to the east of the forecast points and wobbling in a general northwest motion. I see no WNW component. Looking at the water vapor loop and how Matthew is situated in the flow, IF Matthew makes landfall on the Florida coast it'll be north of the most recent gfs point for landfall.

[northjaxpro]

Glad to see the Weather Channel in 24 hour coverage mode. Normally I don't care for the weather channel, but their hurricane coverage and updates is where they really shine

Ditto that I don't care for what TWC has become, but I still miss it for live storm coverage. Verizon dropped it from FiOS in favor of the Accuweather Channel. Haven't checked to see what they do during landfall...

I concur! This is where TWC finally does the public a great service with providing round the clock coverage.

[SouthDadeFish]

While the satellite and radar presentation is improving, it's important to see what recon finds. If we start to see some pressure drops, then look out. Regardless, I get the feeling it may only be a matter of time before the strengthening phase begins... Recon is going to sample the NE quad next, where the strongest winds should be.

[Evil Jeremy]

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Going up!

[jdray]

. I was in Orlando 2004 for Charlie, Frances and Jeanne all in a 31 day time span. Horrendous power outages, even though we had underground utilities. Now that I'm in Jax what scares the bejesus out of me is the fact that you don't have underground utilities. Everything is above ground. A direct hit on this city would be catastrophic for the downed power lines alone. Let's not even talk about the trees.

I live out in Clay County, while my neighborhood has underground utilities, there are still some above ground lines between me and the substation. I lost power with Frances for 3 days.

I also live Clay County what do you think winds will be like here?

Really depends upon the track and your location.
Off of Drs Lake for instance, I wouldn't be surprised to see 50+ sustained.

NWS JAX shows 40+ sustained for Middleburg, gusts to 60
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... =graphical


45+, gusts to 63ish for Drs Lake
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... =graphical

A little stronger in Green Cove.
Oakleaf a little less.

Accuweather shows 60+ mph, gusts to 100+.

Keep an eye on the local stations, Channel 4 has always been my goto.

[marye45]

What is the relationship between landfall and where Cantore goes? I've seen it referred to, but don't understand it. Do storms seem to make landfall where he is? Or vice-a-versa?

I might be wrong but hasn't TWC kept him out of harms way since he was in Gulfport and was in the middle of the Katrina Storm surge?

Generally speaking if Cantore is in your town... Enjoy the breeze. Even in his heyday, he typically missed the eye.

Also, looks like Nassau is in big trouble.

He's in Melbourne..

[OrlandoKnight]

I'll throw out a newbie guess at 135 and Vero

[terstorm1012]

Not sure I'd call Lake Okeechobee overflowing a tidal surge but more of a flood. Also the levee that surrounds the lake would have to overtop and/or breach. Last I heard it wasn't in the best of shape and the Lake was full...

There was an article in the PB Post today referencing how Lake Okeechobee was "uncomfortably high". According to the Army Corp of Engineers there is "no imminent danger the the aging dike around shallow lake will breach". Lake level on Tuesday was 15.78 feet, which is over the preferred target of 14 feet. An inspection of the dike on Tuesday found no new concerns. There are some areas of ongoing seepage, per the article.

Also per the article: the "aging dike" is felt to be one of the worst in the entire country and vulnerable to storms with high winds.

Hope nothing breaks....

me too.

[KC7NEC]

Glad to see the Weather Channel in 24 hour coverage mode. Normally I don't care for the weather channel, but their hurricane coverage and updates is where they really shine

Ditto that I don't care for what TWC has become, but I still miss it for live storm coverage. Verizon dropped it from FiOS in favor of the Accuweather Channel. Haven't checked to see what they do during landfall...

I concur! This is where TWC finally does the public a great service with providing round the clock coverage.

I wish in situations like this they would dump the cable provider login requirement. Took me awhile to find a way I can watch it. Its FAR better coverage the Weather nation which streams free.

[Sanibel]

It could be doing ineffective trochoid wobbles and "The Fist" because of a combination of Cuba being to the south, the core getting disrupted by Cuba, and less Tropical Atlantic air associated with the Bermuda High. It should sort that out and intensify.

[supercane4867]

Unless an ERC or strong shear suddenly appears out of nowhere, I don't see anything less than a CAT4 at landfall. For it to reach CAT5 it's all depends on structural evolution

[Nederlander]

OK time for people to start guessing where landfall will be (if at all), and wind speed and pressure.

I'm going with either Lauderdale or Miami, winds around 165, pressure around 940.

Miami 980 150

If I had a gun to my head, I would say further North.. I personally think Melbourne to CC

[marciacubed]

Local Met said the new models have shifted east. Is that what everyone is seeing?