ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[invest man]

18 z GFS hour 60. IM

[terrapintransit]

I am anything but a professional met here but I called this days ago that the models would eventually pull this system back up north further towards the Mid Atlantic and potentially even New England again where Matthew was originally forecast to go before this confusing loop theory started playing into the models. Just wasn't buying into that whole loop de loop scenario. I base this off of just how strong that ridge has become and the trough being a bit stronger than what the models were picking up on. But hey, I am still learning from this board and I appreciate all the information I've absorbed on here over the years. Good luck to everyone in the path of this monster.

Hurricane Models

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/cTpUpcP.gif[/img]

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/92wyi5Y.gif[/img]

[SouthernBreeze]

Sound very possible, Im noticing that our cool weather has warmed up considerably from couple days ago

[Vdogg]

I am anything but a professional met here but I called this days ago that the models would eventually pull this system back up north further towards the Mid Atlantic and potentially even New England again where Matthew was originally forecast to go before this confusing loop theory started playing into the models. Just wasn't buying into that whole loop de loop scenario. I base this off of just how strong that ridge has become and the trough being a bit stronger than what the models were picking up on. But hey, I am still learning from this board and I appreciate all the information I've absorbed on here over the years. Good luck to everyone in the path of this monster.

Me too. Never bought the loop theory. I've lived in Va. Beach for 20 years and we've never had a storm approach us from this angle and do anything but come out hatteras or Obx, or the real fun ones where than land at Willington, drop a category or two, and come up over top of us. Sure, there's a first time for everything, but this is gonna be a lot closer than folks realize right now. I'm expecting at least TS conditions. Some of the ensembles are trending north now too, and the official NHC track is WAY south of consensus. They have to bring it north at 11.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

[tolakram]

0z GFS running

[tolakram]

4 run trend, just a tad back west.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

4 run trend

[SouthernBreeze]

Thanks Tolakram! Looks like eye just barely staying off FL coast , lets see how it goes on up the coast!

[tolakram]

[Raebie]

Charleston could be in trouble.

[FixySLN]

Thanks Tolakram! Looks like eye just barely staying off FL coast , lets see how it goes on up the coast!

That's the big question. And if I'm completely honest, I won't trust tonight't runs 100%. There's been so much variation over the last 3 days that nailing down a trustworthy run is a job in itself. That quick jog east at 18z looks familiar though.

[SouthernBreeze]

real close! that would prob be Cat 2?

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

4 run trend

[Raebie]

Surge gonna be a huge issue.

[tolakram]

[Raebie]

48 hrs is what I've been worried about. NC is not expecting that.