ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jdray]

Yes, excellent observations you made. Yeah, downed power lines are going to be a huge concern diring and immediately after the storm. Downed trees will be a major problem as well, especially with all the heavy mrain we have had these past few days. The saturated ground will cause many trees to get toppled.

It's not the saturated ground that scares me. Have you ever seen a pine tree that got bended to the ground and then uprighted in a different direction , creating a loop in the tree trunk? Charlie.... I wish I had taken a picture. That's called wind...

I saw those alone I4 for a while, crazy what the wind can do.

[RL3AO]

Local Met said the new models have shifted east. Is that what everyone is seeing?

No.

[WPBWeather]

Local Met said the new models have shifted east. Is that what everyone is seeing?

Not in S FL. Nope.

[HurrMark]

That could be a repeat of the 1928 okeechobee hurricane ☹️️

You know the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane was the same storm as the San Felipe Hurricane which devastated Puerto Rico. Taking both of those landfalls into account it truly has to be one of the very most important hurricanes of the 20th century. I believe I read where the dike at Okeechobee is much improved from 1928.

Someobe correct me if I'm wrong but I believe I read somewhere that during Wilma the water almost surged over the dikes..again please correct me if I'm wrong

Lake Okeechobee has always been and still is very vulnerable...despite being in the middle of the state. Herbert Hoover Duke is likely on disrepair and could be exceptionally vulnerable

[GeneratorPower]

Local Met said the new models have shifted east. Is that what everyone is seeing?

There haven't been any major model runs since about 6pm with the 18z GFS

[SeaBrz_FL]

That's all you can really do sometimes. They will eventually find a place to stay. Pass them this advice. Try and pretend it's a vacation. My family has done it for several storms and it works. Yeah people are worried about their homes, but take in some sights, look for interesting places, etc. It helps take the edge off. Make the best of the situation.

Tell them to get on Priceline.com NOW and look in Dothan, Pensacola, or Tallahassee. That's their best bet. Book the room and haul arse in the morning. Those are all 1 tank trips unless they are driving a tank.

Also can download the RV Parks App and check those Campgrounds that also rent out Cabins!

For the original poster and any others lurking here from the CFL coast that have now decided to leave (GOOD!). Check out Orlando area vacation rental homes on VRBO or AirBnB. Here's the deal: there are thousands of furnished vacation home rentals available in the Orlando area, but this is off season for them. I am typing this from a very beautiful 3bd/2bth home a few miles north of OIA (MCO) and feel very safe even though we are now also under a Hurricane Warning. The owner (in NYC) just called me to make sure all was fine and during the conversation said "Actually, we are glad that you are there and can let us know if we have property damage.". Hotels are sold out, but there are many vacation rental homes available. Just please leave the barrier islands by noon tomorrow.

[Steve]

Although I'm not a professional, I agree with the forecast of 145 mph. Conditions look good from here over the next 24-36

That seems pretty reasonable yet terrifying. This is potentially the biggest deal for the US since 2005 which is the worst year in recent US memory with 2004 close behind (and obviously for some parts of Florida way more impactful). Everyone knows I'm about the farthest thing there is from being a hype monger. This is almost a knife edge betwen disruption to 10-12 million people's lives and dodging a serious bullet. I don't mind saying I don't have a feel for Matthew. I'm 13 days all in on the ridging, so we knew that would be part of the equation. But the angle of the system and the stark contrasts between a landfalling Cat 4 and a too close for comfort system makes all the difference in the world. I've been thinking coastal South Carolina was probably the biggest threat if it stayed offshore initially. But the present danger in under 2 days for parts of SE and East Central Florida is almost hard to imagine. I wish I could throw out some info that mattered, but I'm not sure. I'd be prepping hard on last minute stuff if I lived anywhere from FL City north up the Coast.

[WeatherHoon]

Local Met said the new models have shifted east. Is that what everyone is seeing?

No. They shifted a tad south and west (for Florida).

[TheStormExpert]

Local Met said the new models have shifted east. Is that what everyone is seeing?

Unfortunately probably meant to say West.

[ZX12R]

OK time for people to start guessing where landfall will be (if at all), and wind speed and pressure.

I'm going with either Lauderdale or Miami, winds around 165, pressure around 940.

Miami 980 150

If I had a gun to my head, I would say further North.. I personally think Melbourne to CC

You could well be correct. I'm a newb dumbass, and just pulled that out of my...

[Michele B]

What is the relationship between landfall and where Cantore goes? I've seen it referred to, but don't understand it. Do storms seem to make landfall where he is? Or vice-a-versa?

I might be wrong but hasn't TWC kept him out of harms way since he was in Gulfport and was in the middle of the Katrina Storm surge?

Generally speaking if Cantore is in your town... Enjoy the breeze. Even in his heyday, he typically missed the eye.

Also, looks like Nassau is in big trouble.

This is VERY true! Hubby and I always laugh about where Cantore is....that's where' WE want to be!!!

LOL

[Miami Storm Tracker]

The Cantorie curse,

It use to be where ever he went to cover the storm it went some where else. I THINK palm Beach at 145 mph.

[GeneratorPower]

There is confusion over time period. Short term projections shifted west. Day 4/5 may have shifted east/south.

[Blinhart]

Local Met said the new models have shifted east. Is that what everyone is seeing?

Depending on where you are for it to be considered East, if you are in Georgia, SC, or NC then yes it has shifted East, but if in Florida, no.

[drezee]

I have been a bit busy today, but wanted to post some thoughts:
1. Now is the time that the Euro starts the ramp up
2. Matthew should intensify all the way in
3. Current motion would get to 80W around 27.5N or so (a little S of the NHC forecast...right on GFS)
4. Please plan to be hit by a strong CAT 4 in those coastal areas...just in case...that means leave...no one should stay in normally built home for a Cat 4

[newtotex]

I'll say 150 but weakening to 145mph, with landfall around Cocoa/Cocoa Beach

If that's the case I sure am gonna miss Coconuts, loved that place


It would be great if it didn't hit land at all, though

[Michele B]

I might be wrong but hasn't TWC kept him out of harms way since he was in Gulfport and was in the middle of the Katrina Storm surge?

Generally speaking if Cantore is in your town... Enjoy the breeze. Even in his heyday, he typically missed the eye.

Also, looks like Nassau is in big trouble.

He's in Melbourne..

I thought he was in Orlando?

[Steve]

Local Met said the new models have shifted east. Is that what everyone is seeing?

No.

Early cycle fwiw likes overland. I wouldn't call that an east shift but I haven't surveyed the early or late 18z cycles for comparison.
https://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/rea ... _early.png

[marciacubed]

Local Met said the new models have shifted east. Is that what everyone is seeing?

There haven't been any major model runs since about 6pm with the 18z GFS

I was confused because I had not read anything about a model run on here and then he showed a spaghetti plot that was further east of PBC where I live.

[meriland23]

I'm trying to figure why Matt regained strength after Cuba, only to weaken yet again and..I don't think he is getting.. his act together yet?