ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

[SouthernBreeze]

Wow! NHC saying Cat 1 when gets up here - that looks a little stronger than that, no?

[Raebie]

Yeah. It does.

[tolakram]

[BUD]

Wow! NHC saying Cat 1 when gets up here - that looks a little stronger than that, no?

Yup by the way that looks on the models Hurricane Watch needed for NC and Hurricane Warns for the Myrtle Beach area!!!!

[Raebie]

It just parks off the NC coast? Where's the loop?

[tolakram]

I'm falling asleep, going to bail.

The run is here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2016100700&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=46

[tolakram]

Final pic, here's the turn SE.

[Raebie]

Thank you for posting.

[Vdogg]

Gfs comes north again. Just south of Obx. Was gonna go to bed but I have to see the euro now.

[BUD]

I'm falling asleep, going to bail.

The run is here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2016100700&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=46

Man you doing a great job man!!!!! Thanks!!! Get some sleep!!!

[FixySLN]

Gfs comes north again. Just south of Obx. Was gonna go to bed but I have to see the euro now.

Trending further and further north each run. Any idea why? What's keeping Matthew from turning east earlier?

[Vdogg]

Looks like it doesn't make south turn till after Hatteras. A few more ticks north and we're going to be in trouble. Mets need to start informing people.

[bg1]

Trending further and further north each run. Any idea why? What's keeping Matthew from turning east earlier?

I believe it's because the models are forecasting the trough coming through to be stronger than before, so Matt gets drawn more north.

That isn't good news for the Carolinas... my specific area was already forecast to get over 10" of rain while keeping Matt 100 miles from my house!

[Vdogg]

Gfs comes north again. Just south of Obx. Was gonna go to bed but I have to see the euro now.

Trending further and further north each run. Any idea why? What's keeping Matthew from turning east earlier?

I don't think the ridge is moving east like expected plus the trough is stronger than expected. You can pretty much trace it's path out on the water vapor loop. Until this flow changes, Matthew is pretty much guaranteed to come out around Obx.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... &region=he

Looks like a stronger Nicole might be helping to slingshot him north as well.

[Vdogg]

If this verifies, we have a Floyd on our hands.

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/784242128134279168

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/sta ... 68/photo/2

[FixySLN]

Gfs comes north again. Just south of Obx. Was gonna go to bed but I have to see the euro now.

Trending further and further north each run. Any idea why? What's keeping Matthew from turning east earlier?

I don't think the ridge is moving east like expected plus the trough is stronger than expected. You can pretty much trace it's path out on the water vapor loop. Until this flow changes, Matthew is pretty much guaranteed to come out around Obx.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... &region=he

Looks like a stronger Nicole might be helping to slingshot him north as well.

Trending further and further north each run. Any idea why? What's keeping Matthew from turning east earlier?

I believe it's because the models are forecasting the trough coming through to be stronger than before, so Matt gets drawn more north.

That isn't good news for the Carolinas... my specific area was already forecast to get over 10" of rain while keeping Matt 100 miles from my house!

Thank you both. I understand much better now.

[Alyono]

UKMET plows over Charleston

LOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 79.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2016 0 26.7N 79.0W 965 66
1200UTC 07.10.2016 12 28.8N 80.4W 962 69
0000UTC 08.10.2016 24 30.9N 80.6W 965 63
1200UTC 08.10.2016 36 33.0N 79.9W 971 55
0000UTC 09.10.2016 48 33.8N 77.3W 983 50
1200UTC 09.10.2016 60 34.4N 74.8W 987 58
0000UTC 10.10.2016 72 34.7N 71.9W 992 54
1200UTC 10.10.2016 84 34.6N 69.4W 991 55
0000UTC 11.10.2016 96 35.7N 67.5W 991 64
1200UTC 11.10.2016 108 36.4N 66.3W 994 47
0000UTC 12.10.2016 120 36.7N 66.5W 993 45
1200UTC 12.10.2016 132 36.1N 65.4W 998 33
0000UTC 13.10.2016 144 36.7N 63.9W 1002 29

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Gfs comes north again. Just south of Obx. Was gonna go to bed but I have to see the euro now.

Trending further and further north each run. Any idea why? What's keeping Matthew from turning east earlier?

Because Gandalf got drunk and fell. I post daily on my Facebook page updates on the tropical systems in the Atlantic during the year. today in my post, I named the high out of the west Gandalf, and Matthew was the Balrog. Gandalf was going to get to his rock and shout to the Balrog the "You shall not pass" and push the storm offshore. I find that people understand weather easier if you put it in text that they are familiar with. So, basically Gandalf got drunk and fell down before he got to his rock.

[SouthernBreeze]

interesting way to put it, do you have any insight as to strength when Matt gets to Carolinas?